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southmartin

I Predict A Yes Vote 53:47

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I think the pollsters have got it wrong. I don't think they've been able to take into account the "motivation" factor. I.e. the willingness of the voter to actually get off their backside and go vote.


Therefore I predict that the Yes voters (who will be up at the crack of dawn come rain or shine to vote) will actually score a relatively comfortable win.


Who's going to offer me odds on the Scots voting to leave by 53:47 - a 6 point gap?


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Yes, by a much greater margin than any of the polls mentioned in the MSM, 97% registered to vote shows the motivation the NO campaign has been all doom and gloom (the sky`s going to fall in type or crap if you leave ) and not a mention of anything positive if they stay so at best all they seem to be offering is more of the same

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They (the NO campaign) made some glaring mistakes - it's almost like Cameron wants them to leave and take 42 Labour MPs out of the Commons...

1. They allowed them to be the YES campaign. Surely the referendum should be "do you want Scotland to stay as part of the UK" - that way the positive sentiment is with staying

2. allowing 16 year olds to vote - I mean that's just bloody silly! Most school kids have even less idea of how the world works than Labour voters, and can easily be led into believing that the land of milk ad honey just requires them to split from England

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They (the NO campaign) made some glaring mistakes - it's almost like Cameron wants them to leave and take 42 Labour MPs out of the Commons...

1. They allowed them to be the YES campaign. Surely the referendum should be "do you want Scotland to stay as part of the UK" - that way the positive sentiment is with staying

2. allowing 16 year olds to vote - I mean that's just bloody silly! Most school kids have even less idea of how the world works than Labour voters, and can easily be led into believing that the land of milk ad honey just requires them to split from England

16 year olds should get the vote in England too. If you are old enough to pay taxes, you are old enough to vote. If not, then the age at which you pay taxes should be raised.

Edited by BalancedBear

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http://

www.cityam.com/1410874955/scottish-independence-interactive-all-polls-one-chart

If you look at the historical poll leads in the charts in that article since January to date and taking the average results there's some justification for a double bottom formation since early 2014 and the trend direction could easily result in a Yes lead in the polls of about 5 or 6%.

So that would mean a result of say something like:

Yes = 53% and No = 47%.

There could be an outside chance of:

Yes = 58% and No = 42%.

(no responsibility accepted - this is not investment advice or even advice - do your own research)

Edited by billybong

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Unfortunately, I think the result will be No though the margin could be narrow.

Older voters who have most to lose in the short term may sway the result.

Scots may come to look back on this moment as a missed opportunity

I started out watching this campaign being very sceptical about an independent Scotland's economic prospects but the more I have examined the details the better I have thought their chances of making a go of it alone over the longer term.

Sadly, I have come to the conclusion that the real basket case economy in the Union is England.

Anyway Salmonds SNP look to be the winner whatever the result since if it is Yes they get independence and if it is No they have already been promised further devolution. If the offer of the latter made by Clegg, Milliband and Cameron yesterday are reneged on by the Westminster Parliament then the SNP will be able to play the betrayal card for all its worth in the 2016 Scottish elections which would probably see them enjoying permanent majority in the Scottish assembly from now until the crack of doom. History show that nationalist independence movements rarely jack it in after a defeat at the polls particularly if they feel ,rightly or wrongly, the system was rigged against them. Sooner or later they are going to be back having another crack at the issue

Edited by stormymonday_2011

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Too close to call means exactly that. No one knows what the result will be, so any prediction is just a guess. You may be right, you may be wrong, but you're still guessing.

Janet Daley, the Telegraph columnist, made a tremendous @rse of herself a few years back with this piece, where she confused "what I want to happen" with "analysis".

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/janetdaley/100188062/time-for-me-to-get-off-the-fence-i-believe-mitt-romney-will-win-tonight-and-this-is-why/

Edited by silver surfer

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I think the pollsters have got it wrong. I don't think they've been able to take into account the "motivation" factor. I.e. the willingness of the voter to actually get off their backside and go vote.

Therefore I predict that the Yes voters (who will be up at the crack of dawn come rain or shine to vote) will actually score a relatively comfortable win.

Who's going to offer me odds on the Scots voting to leave by 53:47 - a 6 point gap?

Don't think Betfair have that level of granularity, but they will offer you 5.2, it's gone out from 4.8 in the last couple of hours.

Fill your boots!

http://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.110033387&lskey=bannerClicked

Edited by Rave

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Don't think Betfair have that level of granularity, but they will offer you 5.2, it's gone out from 4.8 in the last couple of hours.

Fill your boots!

http://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.110033387&lskey=bannerClicked

yeah, i have been....also got as wide as 7.2 on the YES vote being between 50-55%...seem amazing odds to me, I feel the pollsters are underestimating some element of the vote...across Facebook polls it's crazy biased to Yes, like 70-90% usually...though obv skewed to the younger voter base and missing out the older votes where No is more likely...but even so...market seems way too con fident on the 52-48% polls that have been coming in. Am pretty large on this trade but thinking of getting bigger !!

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The behaviour of the media throughout this process has been disgusting, frankly.

If was undecided (and Scottish), their actions would be enough to make me vote YES.

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I think the polls are systematically overestimating the yes vote due the the Nats' bullying tactics and the patriotism factor.

My guess is it'll be something like 60:40 no but I'd say it's impossible to call.

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They (the NO campaign) made some glaring mistakes - it's almost like Cameron wants them to leave and take 42 Labour MPs out of the Commons...

...certainly that is why a YES is necessary ....it will restore democracy at Westminster and solve The West Lothian Question in one which is good for everyone ...north and south of Hadrians ....all the lefties gone an Milliband stranded...... :rolleyes:

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I still think it'll be ~55:45 for NO. But if they do go then England needs to jettison NI & Wales in short shrift & get on with the future.

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