Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Recommended Posts

Can't believe nobody has started a 'Black Friday' thread yet.

I think the markets will go into a panic if there is a YES vote so just putting it out there to see if one of these predictions will will turn out to be correct for once. :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well if you have long stock portfolio you could use the book makers to buy the insurance you need to hedge against a yes vote. It'll be a one off timed option that expires on th 18th, and at 3.75 decimal odds at William Hill that isnt bad.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I heard one bookie is already paying out for a no vote as it is so confident of a no vote. I think no is pretty likely, but I am prepared to be surprised.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'd love a yes vote! I see no reason why the two countries can't just coexist like they already did before the king from Braveheart ;) tried to take over Scotland several hundred years ago. And if it shakes up the markets and big-government then that's welcome too, if not an over-simplification.

The scaremongering by Westminster is the worst part about this debate - it's only scary because they're threatening to make it scary. I'm surprised that Westminster hasn't declared Black Friday yet as part of its scaremongering!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Itll be a perfect Friday for the generation that have been priced out the property market.

If the markets no longer wish to loan this nation money it means capitalism is on its way back in some small part.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Itll be a perfect Friday for the generation that have been priced out the property market.

If the markets no longer wish to loan this nation money it means capitalism is on its way back in some small part.

Amen to that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

They will just fix it. Too much of a threat. I'll be surprised if it's a Yes but very happy. I don't trust them. The media onslaught has been sickening, a rerun of the Iraq war.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Quite possible no matter what the outcome it could cause turmoil as possible the vote could be very very close.

Agree. Only a large majority for NO would probably reassure TPTB that it's business as normal.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I heard one bookie is already paying out for a no vote as it is so confident of a no vote. I think no is pretty likely, but I am prepared to be surprised.

looks to be another underhand thought control trick. more a sign of desperation from the no's than anything else. the scary thing is the british government are blatantly trying to control a free vote. this is election rigging by the backdoor !!!

i see trouble ahead

btw///i called black friday this morning....tmt chickened out but i can see it coming

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Can't believe nobody has started a 'Black Friday' thread yet.

I think the markets will go into a panic if there is a YES vote so just putting it out there to see if one of these predictions will will turn out to be correct for once. :)

..what about a 'no' vote and all those undemocratic promises from idiots...get rid of lefty Scots MPs from Westminster ...I'm Scottish.... :rolleyes:

Edited by South Lorne

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

..what about a 'no' vote and all those undemocratic promises from idiots...get rid of lefty Scots MPs from Westminster ...I'm Scottish.... :rolleyes:

Yes, there does seem to be some anger that too much has been promised to Scotland. We could see some fallout over the next few week on matter what the result is.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I too would love a yes. Just to upset shiney Dave, Gormless Ed, Hopeless Liar Nicky, and that Fuctard the half blind and mad Scottish git, but unfortunately the Scots are not going to.

....obviously you are a bit of a loser in life..of course they will vote yes ...and get rid of the Scots Lefty MPs in Westminster ....who as a loser would you vote for ....we need to to see some conviction ...not loser negatives.... :rolleyes:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think people are underestimating the significanced of Betfair paying out on a No vote.

They are ignoring the avarice of the bookies and also the past record of the bookies in predictive accuracy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think people are underestimating the significanced of Betfair paying out on a No vote.

They are ignoring the avarice of the bookies and also the past record of the bookies in predictive accuracy.

http://www.theguardian.com/football/2012/apr/03/bookie-betfred-manchester-united-title

I'm thinking No also for a different reason. Despite how rotten the system is there's too many people with their skin in the game and they will support the status quo. Politicians might think short term but so do most people. The wildcard is really the young and first timers - they might be a bit braver and show some courage.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think people are underestimating the significanced of Betfair paying out on a No vote.

They are ignoring the avarice of the bookies and also the past record of the bookies in predictive accuracy.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/scottish-independence-betfair-pays-out-no-bets-in-referendum-even-though-vote-is-days-away-9736239.html

It looks like it was Betfair Sportsbook, a smaller business of Betfair and it was a publicity stunt according to the Independent. They probably only paid out £50.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The bookies are giving pretty much the same odds as the polls, it's not exactly a sure thing.

They expect a No, but a Yes is somewhere between one and two standard deviations according to their confidence model.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm predicting a very green Friday after a narrow no vote and the markets rebounding as if Carney just opened the QE punch bowl again and put Agadoo on the stereo. If it's a yes vote, I expect a black Friday followed by a very green Monday as Carney actually does open the QE punchbowl again and puts Agadoo on the stereo.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm predicting a very green Friday after a narrow no vote and the markets rebounding as if Carney just opened the QE punch bowl again and put Agadoo on the stereo. If it's a yes vote, I expect a black Friday followed by a very green Monday as Carney actually does open the QE punchbowl again and puts Agadoo on the stereo.

Rebound ?

They've not dropped.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   210 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.