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1937 Parallels For Today's Global Economy - Driving Political Unrest?

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http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/sep/12/1937-parallels-today-global-economy

The depression that followed the stock-market crash of 1929 took a turn for the worse eight years later, and recovery came only with the enormous economic stimulus provided by the second world war, a conflict that cost more than 60 million lives. By the time recovery finally arrived, much of Europe and Asia lay in ruins.

The current world situation is not nearly so dire, but there are parallels, particularly to 1937. Now, as then, people have been disappointed for a long time, and many are despairing.

They are becoming more fearful for their long-term economic future. And such fears can have severe consequences.

For example, the impact of the 2008 financial crisis on the Ukrainian and Russian economies might ultimately be behind the recent war there.

According to the International Monetary Fund, both Ukraine and Russia experienced spectacular growth from 2002 to 2007: over those five years, real per capita GDP rose 52% in Ukraine and 46% in Russia.

That is history now: real per capita GDP growth was only 0.2% last year in Ukraine, and only 1.3% in Russia. The discontent generated by such disappointment may help to explain Ukrainian separatists' anger, Russians' discontent, and the Russian president Vladimir Putin's decision to annex Crimea and to support the separatists.

.....

The word stagnation suggests a swamp, implying a breeding ground for virulent dangers. In the late 1930s, people were also worrying about discontent in Europe, which had already powered the rise of Adolf Hitler and Benito Mussolini.

The other term that suddenly became prominent around 1937 was "underconsumptionism" – the theory that fearful people may want to save too much for difficult times ahead.

Ah yes underconsumption or consumption returning to "normal" levels. When a boom collapses those who've profited naturally want the boom consumption to continue as they are doing very nicely out of it.

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It's a bit of a strange article, it focusses solely on growth vs stagnation, and not on rising inequality and the notion that wealth is being misappropriated by parasites.

It is basically an argument for maintaining the current failed political and economic ideology, returning to "normal".

Forget bank bailouts, socialism for the rich, the destruction of incomes and pensions, the rise of the crony capitalism and the rentier and benefits classes. The average person will be able to educate themselves/ their children, afford a house, save for retirement, have a secure form of income, live in a coherent community - we just need a bit of "confidence".

It's a good illustration of how these people just don't get it. They're like an ex-partner that wants to get back together. "If we could just get back to how we were before...". No, it's over. How we were before was s***t, we're already out there looking for something new. Let's just hope we don't pick up a nasty disease on the rebound.

Slightly rubbish analogy, but I'm typing as I think. :P

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It's a bit of a strange article, it focusses solely on growth vs stagnation, and not on rising inequality and the notion that wealth is being misappropriated by parasites.

It is basically an argument for maintaining the current failed political and economic ideology, returning to "normal".

One nice example of recent unrest caused by economic rent seeking parasites was the Arab spring in Tunisia. A young father scrapped a living together selling fruit and veg on the streets. He was beaten up by police and had his merchandise and equipment (weighing scales etc) confiscated one too many times. He was working illegally on the steets.

"How do you expect me to live?" where his final words before he self-immolated on the steps of the local governors office who refused to return his merchandise.

His actions seemed to strike a cord. Unemployment and inflation in the middle east have been cited as additional factors that drove the young people of the region into an uprising.

Young people, inflation, unemployment, sound like a country you know?

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One nice example of recent unrest caused by economic rent seeking parasites was the Arab spring in Tunisia. A young father scrapped a living together selling fruit and veg on the streets. He was beaten up by police and had his merchandise and equipment (weighing scales etc) confiscated one too many times. He was working illegally on the steets.

"How do you expect me to live?" where his final words before he self-immolated on the steps of the local governors office who refused to return his merchandise.

His actions seemed to strike a cord. Unemployment and inflation in the middle east have been cited as additional factors that drove the young people of the region into an uprising.

Young people, inflation, unemployment, sound like a country you know?

So, in other words killed by government?

And yet the socialists infested the 'spring' movement with zero shame.

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