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rantnrave

Rightmove Index Sep 2014 - Up 0.9%

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Mixed picture really - up following last month's larger than usual fall. Kensington & Chelsea leading London down while time on the market rising elsewhere...

Let me guess, the growth is now coming from outside london ?

Are the unbiased BBc reporting this ?

It wont be long till the insane ( now 2007+30% in many cases) asking prices outside london start to falter/collapse.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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The BBC are not reporting this. Last month I got a grilling for suggesting the BBC doesn't always report on the RM Index. Seems to be the case again today.

Not reporting it....yet.

Give them 20 mins, the MSM aint as fast as the Peoples Media.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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Pretty bullish on balance.

What I'm seeing right now (and I mean right now - my perception may change tomorrow):

  • Worries about an imminent rise in interest rates have lessened with earnings data so weak.
  • Price war amongst lenders - mortgage rates have been falling over the past couple of weeks (example1, example2, example3).
  • Non-prime London still manic. Prime looking toppy but not actually falling.
  • In a yield hungry world, BTL still looks attractive to the unsophisticated who don't want to touch shares or bonds.

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Pretty bullish on balance.

What I'm seeing right now (and I mean right now - my perception may change tomorrow):

  • Worries about an imminent rise in interest rates have lessened with earnings data so weak.
  • Price war amongst lenders - mortgage rates have been falling over the past couple of weeks (example1, example2, example3).
  • Non-prime London still manic. Prime looking toppy but not actually falling.
  • In a yield hungry world, BTL still looks attractive to the unsophisticated who don't want to touch shares or bonds.

+1

I've just spoken to a guy approaching retirement who's made his mind up to withdraw his pension and in place of an annuity get a couple of BTLs. I gently pointed out that house prices look pretty toppy and he might want to re-look at his calculations removing any BTL capital gain component, but he brushed that aside saying that BTLs would mean he could leave something for his kids where as with an annuity they'd get nothing.

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+1

I've just spoken to a guy approaching retirement who's made his mind up to withdraw his pension and in place of an annuity get a couple of BTLs. I gently pointed out that house prices look pretty toppy and he might want to re-look at his calculations removing any BTL capital gain component, but he brushed that aside saying that BTLs would mean he could leave something for his kids where as with an annuity they'd get nothing.

If he's buying cash at least he might get 50p in the pount.

If he's levering up, be can leave exactly sweet FA.

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Agree with FT (can't reply to posts either...). Am reasonably sure however that falling house prices will not be an election issue

If you havent tried already, press the button which looks like a lightswitch at the top left of your reply box when you open one, that ought to grey out all the text formatting options. Now try and opy/paste into the textbox, and also go back to posts you want to reply to and hit reply again.

Apologies if you've already tried this.

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If you havent tried already, press the button which looks like a lightswitch at the top left of your reply box when you open one, that ought to grey out all the text formatting options. Now try and opy/paste into the textbox, and also go back to posts you want to reply to and hit reply again.

Apologies if you've already tried this.

Thanks - trying it now. Looks like I still have to manually enter the instruction to quote and it doesn't say which post I'm quoting. I don't actually have a reply button option!

Edited by rantnrave

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My first reaction was that this was pretty disastrous news! However on closer inspection on RightMove, the breakdown by London boroughs results are considerably more

mixed. 70% of the prime boroughs, particularly to the West, recorded falls.

K&C -3.7%

Westminster -2.1%

Camden -1.4%

Wandsworth -1.4%

Richmond -2.0%

Brent -3.1%

Kingston -0.6%

If, as suggested by many of this forum, price inflation has been driven by overseas investors pushing up London prime (then price rises spilling over in to surrounding areas).

When prices fall, we should expect to see prices fall in these prime areas first as money dries up.

I'd also suggest two other factors at play

1. These areas are the most expensive and so affordability and credit tightening are having an effect here first

2. These areas contain some of the most informed individuals, information should trickle down from the top.

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Just an anecdotal. In the NW, I've noticed loads of big (15% or so) asking price rises on rightmove recently.

A few of these are reversals of big price drops in June.

Anecdotes when the info is available on the internet.....links please ?

Thanks

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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3 bed semis near me have gone up from between 150 and 220 asking price, dependent on location, to nearly 300 - they are nearly all falling through though as the banks will not lend according to my tame EAs.

However, a friend of mine just messaged me to tell me that the semi next to her has just come on for 450 asking - COMPLETELY CRAZY FRECKING NUTS.

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3 bed semis near me have gone up from between 150 and 220 asking price, dependent on location, to nearly 300 - they are nearly all falling through though as the banks will not lend according to my tame EAs.

However, a friend of mine just messaged me to tell me that the semi next to her has just come on for 450 asking - COMPLETELY CRAZY FRECKING NUTS.

Everyone think the London mega bubble is real and someone is going to buy their property for mega bucks.

The London (low sales volume, foreign buyer, liar ) mega bubble is no more and buying a house now is best put on hold until we return to some level of sanity, There is much risk buying a house.

I suspect the Scottish with their notion of living in a decent self government country will get the blame when it collapses.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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Anecdotes when the info is available on the internet.....links please ?

Sorry. Didn't have my property bee with me.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-42591091.html (Was £785k, then £749k, Now £799k)

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-47884889.html (Was £625k, Now £700k)

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-34678037.html (Was £617k, Now £625k)

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-34454002.html (Was £549k, Now £595k)

There are loads more. Now, don't get me wrong, the overall trend over the last 2-3 months strongly down. About 10 weeks ago, there was a massive rush to drop prices, but over the last 4 weeks some "bold" sellers have been re-increasing their prices.

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Obviously this is quite bullish, including +0.9% for London, but then again (sorry for being a bit London-centric):

  • London prices are still down 5% versus two months ago
  • Most of the high-end boroughs are still seeing falls; it seems no-one is pouring into the top of the "champagne tower of prosperity" to fuel later rises elsewhere
  • If I understand correctly, the index is based on new listings, so subsequent price drops are not taken into account (unless they are re-listed)

Next month will be the key one - remember last October? http://www.theguardian.com/money/2013/oct/21/london-house-price-50000-month

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The BBC are not reporting this. Last month I got a grilling for suggesting the BBC doesn't always report on the RM Index. Seems to be the case again today.

Looks like you are wrong. The BBc are doing the secondary reportting that i have seen all too often.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs/the_papers/

"Britain's housing market has seen values reach record levels, according to the front page of the Daily Express."

Why is the publically funded BBc giving free adverts to the Daily express ?

Was there such a link last month ?

No, thought not.

"Things may be about to get a little simpler, though. She says the ONS is working with three other data providers on a "definitive" index."

AKA STATE PROPAGANDA.

How do we vote for independence ?

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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