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Yes Vote And Risk Of European Disintegration And Economic Shockwaves?

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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-09/spain-bond-yields-spike-most-over-decade-referendum-risk-spreads

As we warned earlier, there is the potential for broad risk premium re-pricing across European nations on the back of Scotland's independence referendum decision; and nowhere is that more evident in the last 2 days than in Spanish bonds. So-called "referendum risk" - in this case related to Catalan independence - has sent Spanish bond yields up over 17bps (over 8.1% - the biggest single day jump since before the EU was formed) and risk spreads are 12-15bps wider as the UK experience (with growing support for UKIP alongside faster economic growth) raises the issue that economic recovery alone may not be enough to reverse the rise in anti-elite, anti-establishment sentiment across Europe.

It's not just Scotland... (via Armstrong Economics)

20140908_GBP1_0.jpg

Spanish bond yields are surging... as Catalan concerns build

20140909_spain_0.jpg

with their biggest percentage jump since the EU was formed...

20140909_spain1_0.jpg

As we noted previously,

More broadly, "Referendum Risk" is one of the more powerful manifestations of what we have termed Vox Populi risk
, the Crimea being a particularly powerful, if extreme, example. In particular, what happens in Scotland will be particularly closely watched in Spain, which is facing a referendum on Catalan independence.
Latent independence movements elsewhere, such as Belgium, could also be influenced by the outcome in Scotland. We regard the revival of local/national concerns, from Scotland to Spain and beyond, as part of continuing anti-establishment sentiment and a backlash against globalisation.

And the UK experience (with growing support for UKIP alongside faster economic growth) raises the issue that economic recovery alone may not be enough to reverse the rise in anti-elite, anti-establishment sentiment across Europe.

The contagion risk is something not really being meantioned anywhere in the MSM, if Scotland leaves will other areas of the EU demand independence referendums?

Putin must in some respects be rubbing his hands with glee at the potential breakup of the old European system.

Although from an English perspective could there be a risk of a breakup of England? Cornwall certainly has it's freedom crusaders and I'm sure Yorkshire could also generate a strong independence vote.

Then of course there's the breakup of Scotland itself something Salmond appears completely obilivous too!

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It's not just Putin that will be rubbing his hands. What better way to leave the continent open to IS type insurgencies? I notice that the 2 biggest Libyan cities today were reported as having fallen to Islamists.

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It's not just Putin that will be rubbing his hands. What better way to leave the continent open to IS type insurgencies? I notice that the 2 biggest Libyan cities today were reported as having fallen to Islamists.

Surely that means Libya is now controlled by the nutjobs then?

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Surely if Scotland votes for independence and is automatically out of the pound, the EU, and the union, they would also be out of NATO and could probably cut quite a lucrative deal with Russia or the Chinese to base an independent defence system in Scotland, as it is quite a strategically important location.

Just saying :)

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Surely if Scotland votes for independence and is automatically out of the pound, the EU, and the union, they would also be out of NATO and could probably cut quite a lucrative deal with Russia or the Chinese to base an independent defence system in Scotland, as it is quite a strategically important location.

Just saying :)

The last time the Scots tried that with France the English sent an army north.

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I agree that Scottish independence carries lots of very serious ramifications.

However....Not all of the thoughts that fly though our minds need to end up in print here.

If we are going to pretend to be well informed economic commentators we should at least try to act the part occasionally.

Remember "Mumsnet" may be watching.

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I agree that Scottish independence carries lots of very serious ramifications.

However....Not all of the thoughts that fly though our minds need to end up in print here.

If we are going to pretend to be well informed economic commentators we should at least try to act the part occasionally.

Remember "Mumsnet" may be watching.

Indeed - don't give them ideas.

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Do Farrah and Ball do tartan paint?

Can DH commute to London so DB (daft bitch) can keep chickens in an Egloo in the garden?

Does Scotland have a lot of healthy organic shops?

Does it have a lot of trendy, independent shops?

Does it have a vibrant, nulticultural society * [* - not near me mind, or at the kids schools. I just want to buy the odd Asian ingredient]

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" with the value of the property he still owns in Scotland plummeting, reducing our retirement capital."

It took quite a few posts, but eventually we got down to what is really gnawing away at people inside :D

:lol:

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" with the value of the property he still owns in Scotland plummeting, reducing our retirement capital."

It took quite a few posts, but eventually we got down to what is really gnawing away at people inside :D

Some pundits on BBC News channel fretting about the price of houses being hit, about half an hour ago, too .... Panic starting to break out at the BBC methinks :lol:

Also, BBC News prominently featuring pronouncement from BoE Governor Carney saying how keeping the pound was incompatible with independence. Nice of him to continually weigh into a constitutional debate.

Anyway, no need to worry - by hook or by crook, Scotland will be remaining under Westminster control come what may.

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