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Will There Be A Bank Run From Scottish Banks If Scotland Votes For Independence?

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How likely would this be? Will Scottish independence be the start of the butterfly effect on the global/European economic system?

What Scottish banks? The two humongous basketcases got palmed off on the UK. Is Clydesdale still going and still Scottish? If so I guess it'll look like a smaller-country bank.

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I think it is a Scottish registered bank owned by an English registered company which is owned by an Australian registered company.

I am sure all of them would love to be responsible for paying you should the moment come.

There are only 5m people in Scotland (more people live in the North West of England) so good luck with their tax take underwriting their

bankers and what a good track record BOS and RBS have. Then again maybe better than Iceland's population underwriting their banks.

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What Scottish banks? The two humongous basketcases got palmed off on the UK. Is Clydesdale still going and still Scottish? If so I guess it'll look like a smaller-country bank.

TSB is using what was Lloydstsb Scotland's banking license. Wonder what they'll do?

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Only if Wee Eck threatens economic jihad in defaulting on debt repayments if he doesn't get his way.....

Mind you hasn't he already done that?

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It will be interesting if there is a yes vote to which notes the Scots want to hold. Scottish ones or BoE ones.

If Scots prefer BoE paper to Scottish notes I wonder how Salmond will react. A yes vote I think is likely to plunge Salmond into his first crisis. It's going to be an interesting couple of weeks.

I think a yes vote is almost guaranteed as Labour is handling the no campaign.

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It will be interesting if there is a yes vote to which notes the Scots want to hold. Scottish ones or BoE ones.

If Scots prefer BoE paper to Scottish notes I wonder how Salmond will react. A yes vote I think is likely to plunge Salmond into his first crisis. It's going to be an interesting couple of weeks.

I think a yes vote is almost guaranteed as Labour is handling the no campaign.

Quite. Whatever you think of Farage, he never gets flustered on post-EU questions...he's got a small army of people behind the scenes going over 'brexit' documents, briefing him and informing him of legal quirks and consequences.

Salmond however, well, it was humerous watching barroso bitchslap him over EU membership. He does strike me as a bit amateur.

Galloway has noted the SNP already have all the tax raising powers they need to offset every penny of tory 'cuts'...and yet they have not used them. Why? Salmond is a one trick pony who has made his entire career out of blaming Westminster.

IMO that is why, even after 'independence' they want to keep the pound. Salmond knows full well the BoE cant stop them, any more than the Fed can stop the USD being the de facto currency in much of the third world. He also knows that Scotland a country of 5 million, would have about as much power over the direction of Sterling monetary policy, as, well, Greece does over the ECB and their decisions.

Keeping the pound is his way of still blaming the English even after 'independence', much like the PIIGS blame the ECB for their problems.

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Quite. Whatever you think of Farage, he never gets flustered on post-EU questions...he's got a small army of people behind the scenes going over 'brexit' documents, briefing him and informing him of legal quirks and consequences.

Salmond however, well, it was humerous watching barroso bitchslap him over EU membership. He does strike me as a bit amateur.

Galloway has noted the SNP already have all the tax raising powers they need to offset every penny of tory 'cuts'...and yet they have not used them. Why? Salmond is a one trick pony who has made his entire career out of blaming Westminster.

IMO that is why, even after 'independence' they want to keep the pound. Salmond knows full well the BoE cant stop them, any more than the Fed can stop the USD being the de facto currency in much of the third world. He also knows that Scotland a country of 5 million, would have about as much power over the direction of Sterling monetary policy, as, well, Greece does over the ECB and their decisions.

Keeping the pound is his way of still blaming the English even after 'independence', much like the PIIGS blame the ECB for their problems.

National independence is the norm when it comes to separation from England not some strange kind of atavism. The risks facing Scotland were they to choose independence are utterly insignficant when set against the risks faced by the US and Ireland when they chose the same path. At least the Scots won't have to take up arms to defend their sovereignty against the resentful English crown, or suffer the indignity of having their capital occupied and set alight. Generally speaking, gaining independence from England has been the key to developing a national identity and attaining prosperity. Uncertainty can be a powerful catalyst for productive social and economic change. America, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, India, Ireland. All incomparably better off without the English whip.

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National independence is the norm when it comes to separation from England not some strange kind of atavism. The risks facing Scotland were they to choose independence are utterly insignficant when set against the risks faced by the US and Ireland when they chose the same path. At least the Scots won't have to take up arms to defend their sovereignty against the resentful English crown, or suffer the indignity of having their capital occupied and set alight. Generally speaking, gaining independence from England has been the key to developing a national identity and attaining prosperity. Uncertainty can be a powerful catalyst for productive social and economic change. America, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, India, Ireland. All incomparably better off without the English whip.

Yes.

A No vote in the referendum means endorsing the status quo which isn't going to be a rosy path anyway IMO! A Yes vote will not be a rosy path either but for me at least it gives a hope that something better may come out of the political upheaval..

I'm already enjoying feeling the westminster fear with their last minute bribes of more powers for scotland. Something that was previously rejected for the referendum. Desperation.

It's a Yes vote from me as I see it as a vote of hope to break the rot in westminster.

The first time I've voted for years as previously I've usually spoiled my paper in some way as there has never seemed to be much point in voting.

Edited by Economic Exile

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In answer to the OP's question, I'm wondering if there could be (a run on Scottish banks in the event of a yes vote), because until very recently a yes vote has not been regarded as a serious possibility. Therefore there will have been less preparation and "pricing in" for it going on behind the scenes compared to other major events that affect the economy of the sort that politicians tend to play down and/or deny, but which the seriously rich see coming and plan for.

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Nah, not yet. The Scottish run will come proper when the scottish government debt/GDP hits 200%, interest rates hit BoE+5%, and they look set impose currency controls.

More likely in the near-term is a run on Sterling itself as it becomes possible that the implicit petro-backing of Scottish membership of the UK might disappear.

EDIT: even though i see economic mis-management ahead, i stil think it's a price worth paying to vote YES; and I DO have skin in the game.

Edited by weaker

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Next week thousands of Scot nats are poised to take over the banks ready to stamp an image of Salmond on to every fiver and tenner as the new Scottish currency - the Salmond - comes into existence.

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Next week thousands of Scot nats are poised to take over the banks ready to stamp an image of Salmond on to every fiver and tenner as the new Scottish currency - the Salmond - comes into existence.

Nah. Farmed salmond just ain't worth it.

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They interviewed Martin Gilbert - CEO of Aberdeen Asset Management, one of Scotland's biggest companies and one of the UK's biggest financial companies - on this morning's Today programme.

He sees no problem with Scottish independence as such. The consequence that worries him is that it could raise the risk of the rest of the UK exiting the EU, which would hit hard at many of the UK businesses that Aberdeen invests in.

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Aren't the 'Scottish' banks effectively owned by the UK government? So it's Westminster that will have to cope with any run. Which is only fair because it's their 'light-touch' regulation regime that caused the problem in the first place.

On this forum we've spent the years since 2008 waiting for the markets or the media to wake up to the truth about the UK's insane financial position. The longer they delay the correction the worse it will get.

If I was in Scotland I would vote for change, because no economic scare story about an independent Scotland is worse than what Westminster has already done, and is continuing to do, to my life chances. The UK as currently constructed is a place for bankers, landlords, and people with inheritances. The space allowed a working person like me is getting smaller all the time - literally, when you look at the kind of places people are forced to rent.

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The Telegraph are running an article with a note on the foreign exchange risk (meltdown they use) for mortgage holders for a free floating Scottish currency. Interesting the writer forecasts on float day the Scottish currency would lose 10% of it's value!

I don't know the numbers they used to get 10% fall (is that 90p in the pound). Maybe the Telegraph are ttrying to spread panic as vested interest in the No camp?

Edited by Ash4781

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Why, what happened to Cameron/Osborne?

They didnt cut....they spend more and say it's a cut because it's under the rate at which they force up prices every month.

Great system....till it goes wrong.

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The Telegraph are running an article with a note on the foreign exchange risk (meltdown they use) for mortgage holders for a free floating Scottish currency. Interesting the writer forecasts on float day the Scottish currency would lose 10% of it's value!

I don't know the numbers they used to get 10% fall (is that 90p in the pound). Maybe the Telegraph are ttrying to spread panic as vested interest in the No camp?

I'm no economist (!), but I would expect a dip in a new Scottish currency. I believe that this will be factored into any fiscal plan, in as much as it can be.

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They didnt cut....they spend more and say it's a cut because it's under the rate at which they force up prices every month.

Great system....till it goes wrong.

They did cut, the newspaper said so.

You and I know it's not true, and that Osborne has borrowed more than Broon, but the man in the street only knows what the MSM tells him.... or her of course

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