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The £14billion black hole in Salmond's plan: Think-tank issue warning over the 'huge risks in oil, pensions and tax' for an independent Scotland

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A report by the Centre for Policy Studies says a slump in oil revenues, an exodus of banks to England and a spike in public sector pensions represent three 'huge risks' to an independent Scotland. The think-tank's report suggests Scotland will face a £14billion black hole if the country votes Yes on Thursday. It warns that the loss of oil revenues would move the whole UK 'further down the road to insolvency', with Scotland included. Meanwhile Marks & Spencer and B&Q owners Kingfishers spoke out against a Yes vote.

Still no where near as large as the UK blackhole.

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http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/09/14/uk-scotland-independence-eu-insight-idUKKBN0H90DT20140914

If Scots vote for independence, it will be in part because they believe assurances that their small Atlantic peninsula can quit the United Kingdom without ever leaving the secure embrace of the European Union.

That, however, is not how the EU's top executive sees it. European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso expressed the view early this year that Scotland would be automatically excluded on becoming independent and would find readmission to the 28-member bloc "extremely difficult, if not impossible".

Between these two poles lie uncharted legal waters, and campaigners on both sides are already engaged in the kind of debate once confined to classes in constitutional theory. That debate could rage in pubs, cafes and parliaments across Europe if, against the odds, Thursday's referendum breaks up Britain.

Partial legal precedents cited for and against the Scottish case include Algeria, which kept some access to European markets for a time after it broke from France, Danish-ruled Greenland's exit from the EU and Kosovo's disputed statehood, as well as the EU's absorption of 16 million East Germans with minimal fuss.

Ultimately, however, it may be less lawyerly argument and more messy but flexible EU politics that win the day.

A compromise could prevent five million EU citizens being cast out against their will while easing fears in Spain and beyond that it opens a Pandora's Box of centrifugal spirits - Catalan, Basque, Flemish, Breton, Lombard and many besides.

"Whatever the lawyers say, this will come down to politics," said an official in Brussels who, like diplomats and bureaucrats across the bloc, would not be drawn into the campaign by talking publicly on what most of them hope remains a hypothetical issue.

"It's the EU way," the official said. "Whatever politicians eventually negotiate can be made to fit the texts."

..

One official said he scarcely imagined Juncker agreeing that Scotland be treated other than as a new applicant country under Article 49 - but arguments for accelerated re-entry, based on Scots having already been EU citizens, carried some weight.

Perhaps Salmond should have clarified this before the election, who knows if he had get a firm refusal that Scotland would not be in the EU he might already be home and dry in his nationalist utopia.

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What is it with you and deliberate misrepresentation?

They weren't calling for Robinson to be sacked for asking Wee Eck a question, they were calling for him to be sacked (and apologies to other posters, but geezer obviously hasn't read all of the thread) because this:

became this:

Once Robinson had edited his piece. Salmond clearly answered his question.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias

Confirmation bias is the irrational tendency to search for, interpret or remember information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions or working hypotheses. It is a type of cognitive bias and a systematic error of inductive reasoning. People can reinforce their existing attitudes by selectively collecting new evidence, by interpreting evidence in a biased way or by selectively recalling information from memory. The bias appears in particular for issues that are emotionally significant (including some personal and political topics) and for established beliefs which shape the individual's expectations

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hostile_media_effect

The hostile media effect, originally deemed the hostile media phenomenon and sometimes called hostile media perception, is a perceptual theory of mass communication that refers to the finding that people with strong biases toward an issue (partisans) perceive media coverage as biased against their opinions, regardless of the reality. Proponents of the hostile media effect argue that this finding cannot be attributed to the presence of bias in the news reports, since partisans from opposing sides of an issue perceive the same coverage differently.[1] The hostile media effect illustrates notions of the active media audience, in demonstrating that audiences do not passively receive media content but instead selectively interpret it in light of their own values and predispositions. Despite some journalists' best intentions to report news in a fair and objective way, partisans are motivated to see neutral content as harboring a hostile bias.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Groupthink

Groupthink is a psychological phenomenon that occurs within a group of people, in which the desire for harmony or conformity in the group results in an irrational or dysfunctional decision-making outcome. Group members try to minimize conflict and reach a consensus decision without critical evaluation of alternative viewpoints, by actively suppressing dissenting viewpoints, and by isolating themselves from outside influences.

Loyalty to the group requires individuals to avoid raising controversial issues or alternative solutions, and there is loss of individual creativity, uniqueness and independent thinking. The dysfunctional group dynamics of the "ingroup" produces an "illusion of invulnerability" (an inflated certainty that the right decision has been made). Thus the "ingroup" significantly overrates its own abilities in decision-making, and significantly underrates the abilities of its opponents (the "outgroup"). Furthermore groupthink can produce dehumanizing actions against the "outgroup".

Think that last one sums the Nats out to a T...... :lol:

Anyway I am off to Holland for 10 days so will be bowing out here. It's been a great debate on these pages and I will read up the rest of it when I get back. I will be glued to a radio come Friday morning for the result......

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Right, I'm so so jealous now.

HenryPryor (Henry Pryor)

Most agents sitting on the fence over #IndyRef but I fear Scottish prices might fall by 50% in wake of a Yes vote. http://t.co/RuXYXjYP4b

7:57 AM Sep 15th via TweetDeck

http://twitter.com/HenryPryor/status/511408486992072704

Fear,,,,Rejoice I think you mean.

I fear Englands WILL ONLY drop 50%.

Set up like a kipper springs to mind.

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http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/09/14/uk-scotland-independence-eu-insight-idUKKBN0H90DT20140914

Perhaps Salmond should have clarified this before the election, who knows if he had get a firm refusal that Scotland would not be in the EU he might already be home and dry in his nationalist utopia.

Barroso is talking nonsense. He'd have you believe it would be harder for Scotland to join that for Ukraine. It's just a scare tactic.

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http://www.neweconomics.org/blog/entry/scottish-independence-uk-dependency?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=20140904scottish-independence-uk-dependency

Tucked away in the Financial Times’ report earlier in the week was the giveaway. “Currency investors” would apparently be “particularly concerned by the UK’s persistent current account deficit if this were no longer offset by North Sea oil revenues.”

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http://www.neweconomics.org/blog/entry/scottish-independence-uk-dependency?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=20140904scottish-independence-uk-dependency

Tucked away in the Financial Times’ report earlier in the week was the giveaway. “Currency investors” would apparently be “particularly concerned by the UK’s persistent current account deficit if this were no longer offset by North Sea oil revenues.”

One day, regardless, it wont be. What then ?

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One day, regardless, it wont be. What then ?

Yeah rebalancing will have to happen thats for sure, will be interesting if its Friday that it has to happen!

I think its incredible that George Osborne was actually planning to be away at a conference this week which he has now had to cancel and Cameron wasn't planning on engaging in the independence referendum at all. Shows incredible arrogance when you have a referendum for the future of the country taking place.

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http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/latest-icm-poll-puts-yes-camp-ahead-by-8-x.25322075

"

Latest ICM poll puts Yes camp ahead by 8%"

I want freedom from London too. Lets see how the blood sucking middle men fare with no one to prey on.

What happens when 5 million people leave a pyramid scheme ?

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The editing of the Nick Robinson question to Salmond is incredible! WTF is going on that he can just remove the answer and change the whole angle of the piece.

Mass control and manipulation to suit the London establishments aim ?

We should all be stood outside the BBc and Westminster !!!

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere
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The editing of the Nick Robinson question to Salmond is incredible! WTF is going on that he can just remove the answer and change the whole angle of the piece.

Indeed. Although the whole idea of independence is IMHO misguided at best, maybe the one good thing to emerge from this whole sorry business will be a much greater awareness of how much the British State Broadcasting Corporation puts out is pure BS.

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http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/latest-icm-poll-puts-yes-camp-ahead-by-8-x.25322075

"

Latest ICM poll puts Yes camp ahead by 8%"

I want freedom from London too. Lets see how the blood sucking middle men fare with no one to prey on.

What happens when 5 million people leave a pyramid scheme ?

are you working for the bbc too? :) There are numerous polls, its disingenuous to just pick the one that most suits your argument. I believe the over all figure is now 1% ahead for the no campaign, but you wouldn't be able to see that if you were in Scotland. On the street the No campaign is almost silent whereas there is Yes stuff everywhere. Its will be too close to call.

http://news.sky.com/story/1335455/scotland-referendum-result-too-close-to-call

Three polls - all of which exclude undecided voters - give the "No" campaign the advantage on the final weekend of campaigning, but pro-Independence campaigners will be boosted by another which shows them ahead by a large margin.

A poll commissioned by the Better Together campaign and carried out by Survation has the "No" vote on 54% and the "Yes" camp on 46%.

Another, for The Observer newspaper, gives the "No" campaign a six point lead - 53%-47%.

Meanwhile, a poll carried out for The Sunday Times newspaper has "No" on 50.6% and "Yes" on 49.4%.

A poll for the Sunday Telegraph however showed support for independence at 54%, a nine-point swing from their last online poll, with support for the "No" campaign at 46%.

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http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/latest-icm-poll-puts-yes-camp-ahead-by-8-x.25322075

"

Latest ICM poll puts Yes camp ahead by 8%"

I want freedom from London too. Lets see how the blood sucking middle men fare with no one to prey on.

What happens when 5 million people leave a pyramid scheme ?

Well, they immediately fall foul of their own brand new pyramid scheme. Tell me you're not so naive that you think a yes vote will suddenly free you in any sense shape or form?

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Well, they immediately fall foul of their own brand new pyramid scheme. Tell me you're not so naive that you think a yes vote will suddenly free you in any sense shape or form?

Of course not...but:

1) It's a start

2) It might start off a process in England that see's a shift in policy and a end to the enslavement of a generation.

Are you so naive that you think we are free and shouldn't grasp with both hands any chance for true reform ?

Instead of trying to make yourself look intelligent stupid you should be standing up with the Scottish yes voters and demanding change and a fairer society, The sheeple are living off the scraps from the land owners tables, it's time we all had steak.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere
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Nick Robinsons reporting that RBS were going to move to London before they'd held their board meeting was more significant in my view.

He reported what the govt told him. He couldn't have possibly confirmed it with RBS.

Since when do journalists NOT confirm reports with the business confiremd when reporting 'news' on main BBC news?

That was outrageous.

Queen, BBC, civil service. They're all clearly acting as lackeys for the 'NO' campaign.

Edited by R K
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  • 433 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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