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crashmonitor

Great Recession Now Airbrushed Out By Gdp Revisions

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The ONS has revised the stats to ''international standards'' and suddenly the economy shrank only 6% as opposed to 7.2% during the recession. We actually got out of the trough last September, not the spring according to the reset. Furthermore the growth is now third in the league table of G7 Nations 2010-2014 and tops the rest of the large European economies (beating Germany)...Ed Balls acid test remember.

Basically we are following Balls' plan...a 7% structural defict. a recovery bought on public sector debt. This is not austerity.

the league table.....

(1) Canada....9.6%

(2) US............9.5%

(3) UK............8.1%

(4) Germany...8.0%

(5) France.... 4.1%

(6) Japan.......4.1%

(growth 2010-2014)

Further upward revisions are likely...may be we could get top spot under the Tory management. :lol:

source Telegraph hard copy...can't get a link yet.

Edited by crashmonitor

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http://

www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11073744/Everything-we-thought-we-knew-about-the-economy-was-wrong.html

The other big lesson is that the Bank of England’s refusal to hike interest rates is even less defensible than before. The old policy of forward guidance, as originally introduced by Mark Carney when he was appointed, was immediately obsolete; the economy was already in recovery mode. And if we accept the new methodology – and everybody will eventually fall into line, as they always do – then it means that the economy has rebounded much more than previously thought and that there is therefore far less spare capacity remaining. Interest rates need to start going up, and fast.

The BoE's incompetence is especially strong at the moment. To say the very least.

Edited by billybong

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The other big lesson is that the Bank of England’s refusal to hike interest rates is even less defensible than before. The old policy of forward guidance, as originally introduced by Mark Carney when he was appointed, was immediately obsolete; the economy was already in recovery mode. And if we accept the new methodology – and everybody will eventually fall into line, as they always do – then it means that the economy has rebounded much more than previously thought and that there is therefore far less spare capacity remaining. Interest rates need to start going up, and fast.

Except Heath's reconstruction of events bears absolutely no relation to the truth. Real GDP growth was almost zero at the end of 2012 in the original blue book and again in yesterday's revision. Osborne's decision to recruit Carney and re-inflate house prices via FLS and HtB was informed by this near-recessionary environment - contrary to his expectations given the scale of spending/QE he'd already undertaken. Since then private sector and public sector borrowing in combination has provided a credit impulse equal to ~2.5% of GDP per quarter, fueling the runaway bubble in London and the South East and locking Stalinist levels of capital inefficiency into the UK economy.

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And of course allowing all and sundry in and conveniently omitting per capita figures...

Exactly. Dangerous game the DT and the Tories are playing, no doubt Cameron and Osborne will not be able to help themselves when it comes to the boasting.

Effectively they will tell the population they've never had it so good come election time.

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A different article in today's Telegraph. This is diferent too... Bliar's boom was smaller than thought as well as the size of the the bust that followed. I guess it is what the Haliwide statisticians would call smoothing.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/author/andrewlilico/

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Exactly. Dangerous game the DT and the Tories are playing, no doubt Cameron and Osborne will not be able to help themselves when it comes to the boasting.

Effectively they will tell the population they've never had it so good come election time.

For sure they won't be able to resist telling the US and the Germans and quite a few other countries how to run their economies. They will be ignored.

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A different article in today's Telegraph. This is diferent too... Bliar's boom was smaller than thought as well as the size of the the bust that followed. I guess it is what the Haliwide statisticians would call smoothing.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/author/andrewlilico/

Not so fast. The national debt just leapt by £110+bn as the status of the bank bailouts got changed from 'temporary' to 'permanent' to conform with new EU accounting rules. Together with Network Rail's ballooning £34bn debt, added to the balance sheet to reflect its newly nationalised status.

Congratulations, dear reader! As of this morning, you have racked up an extra £539 in debt. No, you haven’t just bought a new wardrobe. You haven’t made a deposit on a winter break. And it’s not because of that heavy eBay session where you overbid for a signed Bulgarian copy of Wet Wet Wet’s first LP.

Nor are you alone. I’m another 539 quid in the red too – as are each of the other 63 million Britons. Put all those sums together and the entire country has just lost £34bn. How did we manage that? The short answer is that some statisticians made it so. The Office for National Statistics has decided that, under new accounting rules, Network Rail can no longer be called a private company. It was always borrowing on the state’s behalf, and if anything went wrong with Network Rail, it was always going to be taxpayers who would be on the hook. So as of this week it goes on the public balance sheet, its £34bn of debt now indelibly inked next to our names.

Nor would you be alone if you haven’t heard about these extra tens of billions taken out in your name. It hasn’t come up much in the papers, or on the BBC. You might think that strange, given the huge amount involved and all those vows made by George Osborne about getting public debt down.

Then again, the hush fits perfectly with what that £34bn represents – because it’s hush money. It’s part of the secret subsidy that you, me and everyone else in Britain has handed over to the train operators to keep them in business.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/01/great-british-railway-rake-off-rolls-on

Edited by zugzwang

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Exactly. Dangerous game the DT and the Tories are playing, no doubt Cameron and Osborne will not be able to help themselves when it comes to the boasting.

Effectively they will tell the population they've never had it so good come election time.

A Conservative Party political broadcast scheduled for release in April 2015 has been leaked early:

Edited by Dorkins

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