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zugzwang

Obr Not Allowed To Audit Osborne's Election Manifesto Lies

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I'm still trying to get my head around the idea of the Hockeystick Man being the 'top of his peer group'? :blink:

The Government's fiscal watchdog should not be used to review the manifesto claims of political parties because it would compromise its ability to be fully independent, according to an in-depth review of the body.

Kevin Page, who led the first formal assessment into the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) since it was set up in 2010, said auditing political parties' policy costings would put the independent organisation in a "difficult spot" and drag it too far into political territory.

Mr Page, the former parliamentary budget officer for Canada, said the task would take between six and nine months and require a huge amount of manpower and detail.

"You're talking about multiple parties talking about everything from defence to social and environmental issues so you would need to have a lot of detail on how to cost it," he said.

He was in favour of auditing manifestos but said there was a danger that Robert Chote, OBR chairman, could be seen as favouring one party over another if he vindicated their policies.

"You'll be putting [OBR staff] under a lot of political pressure and you'll have Robert almost being an arbiter or referee," he said.

Auditing party manifestos was first floated by Ed Balls, the shadow chancellor, who said the move would help "restore trust in politics". Mr Chote agreed it would "contribute to better policy making" but the proposal was voted down in June by MPs.

Mr Page praised the OBR for its "incredible transparency" and said reports such as the forecast evaluation report, the OBR’s annual review into its own performance, demonstrated why it was “top of its peer group”.

He also defended the OBR’s forecasting record. “Everybody gets it wrong. We need to thank Robert and [the OBR] for challenging the assumption that economists are good or bad based on whether they can predict the future. Who can see around corners and predict when the bubble is going to burst? Nobody can do that.”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11073674/Government-watchdog-should-not-audit-party-manifestos.html

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Mr Page praised the OBR for its "incredible transparency" and said reports such as the forecast evaluation report, the OBR’s annual review into its own performance, demonstrated why it was “top of its peer group”.

He also defended the OBR’s forecasting record. “Everybody gets it wrong. We need to thank Robert and [the OBR] for challenging the assumption that economists are good or bad based on whether they can predict the future. Who can see around corners and predict when the bubble is going to burst? Nobody can do that.”

Jesus wept. At least he admits a bubble exists.

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The conclusion is all will need to raise taxes and or cut spending. Autumn statement is in December. I think there is a open consultation on it.

They wont cut spending, its just the spending will go on paying off the interest on the ever growing debt ..... until they run to the IMF for a bailout.

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The Government's fiscal watchdog should not be used to review the manifesto claims of political parties because it would compromise its ability to be fully independent, according to an in-depth review of the body.

Between elections the Office of Budget Responsibility doesn't seem to function as a responsible "fiscal watchdog" for the actual economy either - considering the exponential debt piling up. Never mind the fantasies in the general election manifesto(s).

How often do you hear them saying stuff like the debt or the spending is exponential, it's irresponsible, it's out of control.

Funded by the Treasury so how independent can it really be.

Edited by billybong

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Mr Page, the former parliamentary budget officer for Canada, said the task would take between six and nine months and require a huge amount of manpower and detail.


"You're talking about multiple parties talking about everything from defence to social and environmental issues so you would need to have a lot of detail on how to cost it," he said.

He says he does favour the auditing of manifestos but the above seems a bit of a weak excuse not to do it seeing as an accurate assessment would likely benefit the overall economy of the UK and help the UK

As for the expense isn't almost every other government expenditure regarded as free money taxpayers money so why should looking after the UK's finances not be allowed the same level of extravagance - it could even save money eventually.

Even assuming it would normally "take between six and nine months and require a huge amount of manpower and detail."

the length of time to carry out the task could be shortened by increasing manpower and subcontracting parts of it. Especially if they started to make plans immediately and took a "can do" attitude.

Think of stuff like "change you can believe in" and "plan for change".

Think of the boost to employment and GDP with all that extra work - and the extra debt.

Edited by billybong

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He also defended the OBR’s forecasting record. “Everybody gets it wrong. We need to thank Robert and [the OBR] for challenging the assumption that economists are good or bad based on whether they can predict the future. Who can see around corners and predict when the bubble is going to burst? Nobody can do that.”

Nice. Why do they make freaking predictions then?

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He also defended the OBR’s forecasting record. “Everybody gets it wrong. We need to thank Robert and [the OBR] for challenging the assumption that economists are good or bad based on whether they can predict the future. Who can see around corners and predict when the bubble is going to burst? Nobody can do that.”

Maybe they should get the job description changed because part of the job they're paid to do is to forecast.

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