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saabman

Scotish Independence...n.ireland's Opportunity

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Hi All

Don't know if this has been mentioned or discussed but if Scotland votes for independence many jobs will eventually be clawed back to the UK that are currently out stationed in Scotland.

The list includes all military bases especially Faslane....UK Government offices, HMRC in Glasgow

BAE ship yards....Finanical services et al.

My point being if these jobs have to come back to the UK will N.Ireland reap the benefit in terms of major job opportunites, housing shortages and maybe immigration.

Any thoughts....

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Short term maybe ... all in all it'll be a downer for both Scotland and rUK.

I would have thought the main impact on NI would be to shoot a big hole in the logic of the Union. Instability beckons I think.

Edited by montesquieu

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I dont have a link but I remember reading some analysis that concluded there wasnt much in it jobs wise - yes lots of jobs would leave Scotland but lots of other jobs would go in the other direction leaving England. Although there would be not much difference at the end, there would be a huge upheaval in the process, with massive costs for something thats fundamentally non-productive. In the short term it would probably be a boost to the economy, but sooner or later the costs of all those moves would need to be paid for somewhere.

Also England could "give" Northern Ireland to the Scots as a leaving present, I'm sure westminster would be glad to be shot of it

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There's zero chance of the UK moving much of the defence apparatus (especially the nuclear submarine base) to Northern Ireland given the strength of separatist sentiment there over the past few centuries. Anything important would go to England.

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if the UK has less people/land to govern it should require less people to do so. So whilst some advantages of scale will be lost I dont see a massive swing. They may be tempted to nurture us even more to keep us sweet.

I dont see (if it were to happen) the Scots independence thing having that big an impact here. Try to avoid political debate. there is not a movement here of any sorts for a independent NI (God help us if there was). what is or was sought by some was a union with another state. thats a different thing and you will notice that that side has not leapt on the band wagan.

whilst the Scots vote might be closser than though I dont see it changing now and we may benefit by london realising that it needs to look after the far bits of the empire as well as middle England.

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if the UK has less people/land to govern it should require less people to do so. So whilst some advantages of scale will be lost I dont see a massive swing. They may be tempted to nurture us even more to keep us sweet.

I dont see (if it were to happen) the Scots independence thing having that big an impact here. Try to avoid political debate. there is not a movement here of any sorts for a independent NI (God help us if there was). what is or was sought by some was a union with another state. thats a different thing and you will notice that that side has not leapt on the band wagan.

whilst the Scots vote might be closser than though I dont see it changing now and we may benefit by london realising that it needs to look after the far bits of the empire as well as middle England.

I'm expecting a big No, but the end result will be closer to devo max, where they have their own tax raising powers, much like a Canadian province. Even the scots Tories are in favour of the Scottish parliament now, although they objected to it in 1997, so it's there to stay.

No matter what, I cannot believe NI's days as a calf sucking English milk are anything but numbered. Good job, too.

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I'm expecting a big No, but the end result will be closer to devo max, where they have their own tax raising powers, much like a Canadian province. Even the scots Tories are in favour of the Scottish parliament now, although they objected to it in 1997, so it's there to stay.

No matter what, I cannot believe NI's days as a calf sucking English milk are anything but numbered. Good job, too.

you could say the same for large swathes of the north of England and north Wales. More like London and the South is a sow with many squeeling piglets

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Not to anywhere near the same extent.

I wouldnt agree with the nowhere near point. Scotland has the oil and the England regions get mixed up with the whole of england but if you look at the GVA per head figures NI is not always the lowest, sometimes higher than wales and close to North East etc.

We have the highest economic inactive figures and are high on the % of people working on public services but on sub regional levels other areas have issues with economic inactivty as well.

Edited by BelfastVI

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I wouldnt agree with the nowhere near point. Scotland has the oil and the England regions get mixed up with the whole of england but if you look at the GDV per head figures NI is not always the lowest, sometimes higher than wales and close to North East etc.

We have the highest economic inactive figures and are high on the % of people working on public services but on sub regional levels other areas have issues with economic inactivty as well.

I have no idea what GDV is so can't comment.

What is GDV?

Edited by 2buyornot2buy

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I have no idea what GDV is so can't comment.

What is GDV?

floydain slip. GDV is a term developers use.

what I should have used is gross value added (GVA)

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floydain slip. GDV is a term developers use.

what I should have used is gross value added (GVA)

No. Still not as high in public spending.

Is that something to do with Keith floyd the cook?

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I thought the ons regional GVA shows NI having the lowest GVA of all regions?

Even if it does not public sector GVA is going to pull us up more.

GVA is calculated over the whole pop no matter if you are a teacher, nurse or private sector manufacturer. NI us usually, but not always the lowest. The point is NI's GVA, per head of population is close to some other regions, who together are all far below London and the South East.

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GVA is calculated over the whole pop no matter if you are a teacher, nurse or private sector manufacturer. NI us usually, but not always the lowest. The point is NI's GVA, per head of population is close to some other regions, who together are all far below London and the South East.

They do provide regional GVA figures.

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Any one going to take a punt on this? Just walked past a bookie's - 2/7 No. Looks like they think No might just swing it.

Win yourselves some easy tax free money?

William Hill offering 19/5 (or 3.8/1) on a YES result. If the result is expected to be so close then the better value bet is on a YES result.

Turnout will be huge - also worth a bet as 97% registered and Quebec had a turnout of 94%

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William Hill offering 19/5 (or 3.8/1) on a YES result. If the result is expected to be so close then the better value bet is on a YES result.

Turnout will be huge - also worth a bet as 97% registered and Quebec had a turnout of 94%

Considering a Yes is likely to lead to endless mayhem and instability, followed by demands for home rule by every group with a grievance (caliphate of Bradford and sheikhdom of tower hamlets?), no doubt involving a slump and a run on the pound, you could see a gamble on a Yes as an insurance policy paying out on the above.

Just like wealthy Tories who always bet on labour in general elections as a compensation against higher tax rates. Before skipping to Jersey.

Imagine the run onScottish banks the morning after Yes. I was talking to some fairly well off scots last week and they're terrified. It seems it's the poorer scots who want yes - some rubbish about better dole! We're not being told about any class divide as far as I'm aware.

Edited by yadayada

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I imagine is I had large deposits in a bank in Scotland I would be opening an account in Newcastle.

Moved mine sideways to a joint account within a Scottish bank to make sure it was at least fully covered by the protection scheme, it will be moved elsewhere tomorrow evening on a yes, don't imagine anything will happen but will let other people take that chance with their money :)

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Moved mine sideways to a joint account within a Scottish bank to make sure it was at least fully covered by the protection scheme, it will be moved elsewhere tomorrow evening on a yes, don't imagine anything will happen but will let other people take that chance with their money :)

Wealthy scots have been buying gold, according to the daily torygraph, so it's bound to be true. We're not told what poor ones are buying. Whiskey, probably. Edited by yadayada

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Wealthy scots have been buying gold, according to the daily torygraph, so it's bound to be true. We're not told what poor ones are buying. Whiskey, probably.

Ahh I have some gold already, but then so does everyone right? Man, I've been hanging about HPC for far too long..

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