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'yes' Vote - Cost Of Protection On Sterling In Options Market Rises

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Bond Vigilantes @bondvigilantes 1h

There’s been a dramatic swing in polls towards Yes vote in Scotland referendum, see Prof John Curtice’s blog for more http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/09/yougov-report-dramatic-swing-to-yes/

Against that backdrop today’s poll from YouGov – for both The Sun and The Times – will come as both as a surprise and (for the No side at least) a shock. It puts Yes on 42%, up four points on YouGov’s previous reading just a fortnight ago (after the first leaders’ debate) and No on 48% (down 3). Once the Don’t Knows are excluded Yes are on 47%, up four points, by far and away a record Yes vote from a pollster that has hitherto tended to paint a relatively pessimistic picture for the Yes side.
Of course, too much should never be read into one poll – and we still await a poll that actually puts the Yes side ahead. But there seems little doubt that this poll will electrify the campaign. The Yes side will now be able to argue with some conviction that they have gained momentum and can hope that they might yet secure a dramatic and historic victory. The No side, meanwhile, will be asking itself why it now apparently finds itself in a desperate last minute fight to keep Scotland in the Union.
Just one group of voters appear to have resisted the tide towards a higher Yes vote – older voters. Despite the particular importance of the NHS for such voters, at 31% support for Yes amongst the over 60s is actually slightly down (by two points) on a month ago. Indeed, but for the Yes side’s weakness amongst this group YouGov would be putting Yes in the lead. Will pensions now be one of the crucial battlegrounds in what promises to be a very keenly contested last two weeks?

Fear is the key

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Suddenly the unthinkable is thinkable....... a decade long half trillion pound re-organisation of our country.......state and public sector pension rights, repatriating public sector jobs from Scotland, arguments over North Sea oil, the national debt, citizenship, defence. Cataclysmic chaos and wasted resources trying to resolve it.

Panic flight of capital as the Scottish peso implodes to boot.

Edited by crashmonitor

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What ever the vote it's going to be incredible close. You do wonder if Scotland might fragment something Salmond clearly hasn't thought about. Could the lowlands vote to rejoin the UK and the Highlands stay independent with an independent Shetland?

The currency issue hasn't been resolved and neither had the debt issue. If the UK defaults on the Scottish share of the debt that they refuse to recognise what happens?

As Scotland will then be outside the EU and will then seek to "rejoin" it has to adopt the Euro what happens then? Do the Scots want the Euro? Has this question been raised?

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What ever the vote it's going to be incredible close. You do wonder if Scotland might fragment something Salmond clearly hasn't thought about. Could the lowlands vote to rejoin the UK and the Highlands stay independent with an independent Shetland?

The currency issue hasn't been resolved and neither had the debt issue. If the UK defaults on the Scottish share of the debt that they refuse to recognise what happens?

As Scotland will then be outside the EU and will then seek to "rejoin" it has to adopt the Euro what happens then? Do the Scots want the Euro? Has this question been raised?

I don't think we have been taking a Yes vote seriously...trying to untangle stuff like the national debt, shared public services and accruing pension rights is going to be a complete nightmare and a costly one which will hobble both economies.

We have had an expensive re-unification in Germany but what the Uk will try and do will be a first for such an advanced economy. Politicians never grasp logistical implications or threats to financial markets. Scottish savers in particular are exposed by flight of capital.

Edited by crashmonitor

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I don't think we have been taking a Yes vote seriously...trying to untangle stuff like the national debt, shared public services and accruing pension rights is going to be a complete nightmare and a costly one which will hobble both economies.

We have had an expensive re-unification in Germany but what the Uk will try and do will be a first for such an advanced economy. Politicians never grasp logistical implications or threats to financial markets. Scottish savers in particular are exposed by flight of capital.

As this is a divorce have the SNP actually come out and said how much it's going to cost to split off from the rest of the UK? I do hope that Scotland realises it should be picking up 100% of the costs for this as it's what they want. Originally Scotland was taken over by the English to bailout a bankrupt nation, will we be getting a refund for this cost?

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The whole Shetland and Orkney thing could be the spanner in the works - if yes wins (unlikely)

The SNP would have no choice but to support their claim for 'independence' - and they would take a lot of the oil and gas with them.

And the people of Shetland probably feel further away and very different from Edinburgh.

The whole 'lives run by Westminster' angle - works both ways.

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The trouble is that if the posts on the O/T Forum thread are in anyway representative of Scottish opinion, many voters think all these economic concerns are irrelevant.

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I just come back from a tour of Scotland, it generally seemed like yes I met or seen very few no, some are fanatical too. A lot have really woken up to the BBC propaganda too having "no" shoved down there throat is making them reactionary. Some see it as a final goodbye to the tories forever some contempt for caeron and westminster is so great they will risk economic chaos to punch him in the face.

I for one welcome the chaos anything to ruin Camerons day is good with me. The UK is finished anyway, this hilarious concept that somehow England would need to bail them out when England is in a huge amount of shit itself. Everyone is F**ked and this might trigger the economic balloon pop we hope for.

What does interest me is that Scotland is rumoured to default on bank debt if it goes and yes and it is also banding around the idea of a revolutionary currency like bitcoin. I have seen both ideas already floated in the Scottish media. Of course this doesnt get mentioned on the Mainstream Media but many scots talk of it and it seems common knowledge as to how the central banks operate.

Really interesting times, I hope its a yes just for shits and giggles, its all going tits anyway maybe scotland could do something radical and upset the apple cart. The fact the establishment is so worried makes me happy.

Also I hear these rumours of impending terror attacks are false flags possibly to try and hold the union together with a common enemy so I worry they will try and do something to Scotland.

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I for one welcome the chaos anything to ruin Camerons day is good with me.

A yes vote would suit Cameron. He would win the election at a canter. He has a "reason" for the next collpase. He probably has a reason to raise rates or print money.

I'd wager Cameron would vote yes if he had a vote :P

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What ever the vote it's going to be incredible close. You do wonder if Scotland might fragment something Salmond clearly hasn't thought about. Could the lowlands vote to rejoin the UK and the Highlands stay independent with an independent Shetland?

The Shetland Islanders want to become part of Norway, when they talk of their queen it is the Queen of Norway whom they refer to.

The Shetlands have all the major recent gas finds in their waters the place is boom town, there isnt a cats chance in hell the Jocks will let them become independent.

And all this talk about being undediced is nonsense from what i can see, theyd all decided long before the announcement of a referendum was announced.

But my god do i hope we get rid of them.

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A yes vote would suit Cameron. He would win the election at a canter. He has a "reason" for the next collpase. He probably has a reason to raise rates or print money.

I'd wager Cameron would vote yes if he had a vote :P

Camorons family originate from Scotland.

I doubt he's bright enough to realise itd make winning an election easier, he'd just see it as less people to take tax from and less people under him in his little empire.

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I just come back from a tour of Scotland, it generally seemed like yes I met or seen very few no, some are fanatical too. A lot have really woken up to the BBC propaganda too having "no" shoved down there throat is making them reactionary. Some see it as a final goodbye to the tories forever some contempt for caeron and westminster is so great they will risk economic chaos to punch him in the face.

I for one welcome the chaos anything to ruin Camerons day is good with me. The UK is finished anyway, this hilarious concept that somehow England would need to bail them out when England is in a huge amount of shit itself. Everyone is F**ked and this might trigger the economic balloon pop we hope for.

What does interest me is that Scotland is rumoured to default on bank debt if it goes and yes and it is also banding around the idea of a revolutionary currency like bitcoin. I have seen both ideas already floated in the Scottish media. Of course this doesnt get mentioned on the Mainstream Media but many scots talk of it and it seems common knowledge as to how the central banks operate.

Really interesting times, I hope its a yes just for shits and giggles, its all going tits anyway maybe scotland could do something radical and upset the apple cart. The fact the establishment is so worried makes me happy.

Also I hear these rumours of impending terror attacks are false flags possibly to try and hold the union together with a common enemy so I worry they will try and do something to Scotland.

Yes, if Alastair Darling was to die in a suicide bombing, that would evoke some sympathy.

If I were Alastair, I would stay at home and employ some armed guards.

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Yes, if Alastair Darling was to die in a suicide bombing, that would evoke some sympathy.

If I were Alastair, I would stay at home and employ some armed guards.

I actually met him once when he was chancellor, he was the strangest shaped human being I ever met, his body was shaped not unlike the alien from American dad. Made we wonder if it was an alien in a suit. I thought for a minute david icke might be right and If I pushed him over he would fall apart like a russian doll and a lizard would jump out.

Not a smart man either which also made me wonder at how such a gormless feckless wonder ends ups chancellor. I really do wonder if shadowy puppet masters place simple folks in positions so they can control them. Otherwise or society is really f*cked up

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I think the no campaign has been incredibly inept from what I have seen.

The Welsh Taffia are panicking that Scotlands says yes and then Wales will be forced out to look after itself - all those thousands of very well paying public sector jobs for the 10% would disappear.

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I think the no campaign has been incredibly inept from what I have seen.

The Welsh Taffia are panicking that Scotlands says yes and then Wales will be forced out to look after itself - all those thousands of very well paying public sector jobs for the 10% would disappear.

Yep Cardiff does pretty well...Hm Revenue and Customs come to mind one of the main self assessment sorting offices for the entire country and Swansea...DVLA.

But then Glasgow, in particular, is also a major public sector admin centre. Guess the SNP assumes the English will allow the Scots to keep these plum jobs.

Edited by crashmonitor

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The whole Shetland and Orkney thing could be the spanner in the works - if yes wins (unlikely)

The SNP would have no choice but to support their claim for 'independence' - and they would take a lot of the oil and gas with them.

It is looking more and more likely that a YES vote could be on the cards. Hence this thread.

Your second sentence is pure fantasy. Feel free to prove me wrong though.

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The trouble is that if the posts on the O/T Forum thread are in anyway representative of Scottish opinion, many voters think all these economic concerns are irrelevant.

That is the way I see it. The option is stay with the UK = more of the same. Leave the UK = a chance to have a better life. It might not work out but at least there is a chance. Plus you get to see Cameron, Brown, Darling, Clegg, Milliband etc. defeated. Why wouldn't you want that?

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Yep Cardiff does pretty well...Hm Revenue and Customs come to mind one of the main self assessment sorting offices for the entire country and Swansea...DVLA.

But then Glasgow, in particular, is also a major public sector admin centre. Guess the SNP assumes the English will allow the Scots to keep these plum jobs.

This is the outcome of being stuck in an overvalued currency union, in this case the sterling zone, thus being reliant on transfer payments from the centre.

The problem isn't 'Wales' per se, it's the currency they're stuck with.

Very similar problem that the PIIGS have with Germany. (London = Germany in this comparison).

As with Germany in the EZ, London benefits in the sterling zone whilst the rest of the country pays for that success. In other words, public sector jobs in the regions aren't the 'problem' they're the natural outcome arising from a fixed currency arrangement with a high productivity node with which it is impossible to compete.

I (personally) hope Scotland votes 'yes' for self-determination reasons and adopts its own currency thus freeing itself from the fixed currency union under which it will always suffer. I understand why Salmond want to insist he'll keep the sterling, but it doesn't make much sense economically 'cause Scotland, like Greece etc in EZ are and will always remain powerless. The nastiness eminating from the Westminster power centre have demonstrated this to good effect during the course of the 'debates'.

Edited by R K

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That is the way I see it. The option is stay with the UK = more of the same. Leave the UK = a chance to have a better life. It might not work out but at least there is a chance. Plus you get to see Cameron, Brown, Darling, Clegg, Milliband etc. defeated. Why wouldn't you want that?

Plus the party, can you imagine the party? worth it for that alone

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I think the no campaign has been incredibly inept from what I have seen.

The Welsh Taffia are panicking that Scotlands says yes and then Wales will be forced out to look after itself - all those thousands of very well paying public sector jobs for the 10% would disappear.

Surely you must support the cause then!

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But then Glasgow, in particular, is also a major public sector admin centre. Guess the SNP assumes the English will allow the Scots to keep these plum jobs.

Yes your right the SNP assumes the English will allow us to keep the jobs.

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.....I for one welcome the chaos anything to ruin Camerons day is good with me. ...

..ha ..ha ...Cameron is likely to be quite happy ...the worried tribe are the Scottish Labour MPs in Westminster ... ... :rolleyes:

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