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spyguy

Laim Halligan On Duncan, After Osbrown

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Here's the article:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/11065741/Carswell-Ukip-defection-highlights-UKs-dire-fiscal-situation.html

Here's the pamphlet:

http://politeia.co.uk/sites/default/files/files/After%20Osbrown%20-%20Mending%20Monetary%20Policy.pdf

Basically, the article points out the UK is spending way too much, and nobody seems to care or think through what the outcome will be.

I've thought about this a bit over summer. I've been reading about how bad France is - and it is. But at least there only running a deficit of ~3% to achieve 0.8% growth. The UK spend ~7% and achieves growth of less than 3% - and everybody thinks we're doing great !?!

The coalition have reduced spending by as much as they think is polically expedient - the 12% deficit should have resulted in Brown, Balls, and Milliband bodies being hung upside down from a lamppost. But we now seem stuck at -7% - probably as a result of the demographic headwinds we face now - boomers retiring from the public sector and drawing down unfunded pensions.

On holiday, I bumped into a 25 year old friend of the family. She + boyfriend have took out a ~150K mortgage on a house. She works a couple of minimum wage jobs. He's a bit vague. The expectation is that IRs will stay low, and be controlled by UKGOV/BOE. My question - not to them! - is how for FFS?

The UK is not Germany or Switzerland. The UK looks more and more like one of the developing countries - India, Mexico. Forget inflation, our IRs will determined by trying to fund our debt and budget deficit. Expect wild swings and lots of instability.

There have been some noticable reductions - LAs spending has been slashed, not that you notice much, which confirms that a lot of LA spending is just p1ssed away on pet projects/employing relatives.

But what about the big spending sinks - NHS, education and tax credits?

The NHS seems to employ a huge number of people in my home area - everyone's a nurse, healthcare visitor, etc. The service we get is terrible. My dad's on his 4th attempt on getting a specific blood test performed: goes to GP, takes sample, GP writes what test is to be performed, sample goes off, then either gets lost (twice) or wrong test is performed.

A good 1/3 are off on the sick at any time.

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Here's the article:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/11065741/Carswell-Ukip-defection-highlights-UKs-dire-fiscal-situation.html

Here's the pamphlet:

http://politeia.co.uk/sites/default/files/files/After%20Osbrown%20-%20Mending%20Monetary%20Policy.pdf

Basically, the article points out the UK is spending way too much, and nobody seems to care or think through what the outcome will be.

I've thought about this a bit over summer. I've been reading about how bad France is - and it is. But at least there only running a deficit of ~3% to achieve 0.8% growth. The UK spend ~7% and achieves growth of less than 3% - and everybody thinks we're doing great !?!

The coalition have reduced spending by as much as they think is polically expedient - the 12% deficit should have resulted in Brown, Balls, and Milliband bodies being hung upside down from a lamppost. But we now seem stuck at -7% - probably as a result of the demographic headwinds we face now - boomers retiring from the public sector and drawing down unfunded pensions.

On holiday, I bumped into a 25 year old friend of the family. She + boyfriend have took out a ~150K mortgage on a house. She works a couple of minimum wage jobs. He's a bit vague. The expectation is that IRs will stay low, and be controlled by UKGOV/BOE. My question - not to them! - is how for FFS?

The UK is not Germany or Switzerland. The UK looks more and more like one of the developing countries - India, Mexico. Forget inflation, our IRs will determined by trying to fund our debt and budget deficit. Expect wild swings and lots of instability.

There have been some noticable reductions - LAs spending has been slashed, not that you notice much, which confirms that a lot of LA spending is just p1ssed away on pet projects/employing relatives.

But what about the big spending sinks - NHS, education and tax credits?

The NHS seems to employ a huge number of people in my home area - everyone's a nurse, healthcare visitor, etc. The service we get is terrible. My dad's on his 4th attempt on getting a specific blood test performed: goes to GP, takes sample, GP writes what test is to be performed, sample goes off, then either gets lost (twice) or wrong test is performed.

A good 1/3 are off on the sick at any time.

simple solution to that is to ousource all of the diagnosics to somewhere cheaper by medicine of a comparable standard.

say hong-kong or singapore.

by cunning use of that thing called the internet, rather than filling in hundreds of forms in triplicate, you'll get diagnosis and then treatment can be given.

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this is the tye of person that ukip needs as he is much more financial sensible . Wish he stood for election here i would vote for him as the other three partys are tainted in some way

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Halligan is probably the only mainstream hack to have grasped the scale of the crisis facing us, an island of sense in the roaring waters of New Keynesian liquidity and superleveraging.

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this is the tye of person that ukip needs as he is much more financial sensible . Wish he stood for election here i would vote for him as the other three partys are tainted in some way

All power centres are tainted by power vacuums, how many millenia of recorded history are needed to recognise this, the tories,labour,UKIP,BNP, etc etc arent unique, they are simply taking advantage of of power mandated to them.

I saw an article recently on here saying down liblabcon, destroy them and let new parties (read power vacuums) rise up, the problem isnt MPs, its human nature

If tomorrow UKIP & the greens get 90% of the vote are there seriously enough people in the UK that wouldnt recognise the same career politicians theyve supposedly voted out wouldnt be in the parties theyve voted in,

The issue is millenia old, power vacuums, it would be completely unnatural (as history highlights) not to take advantage of that vacuum to ensure personal security

Fortunately humanity are so into the concept of special flowers that not having them seems unnatural

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Halligan is yet another inflationista. Right on issues. Wrong on outcomes. How can they not see what's in front of their eyes eg govt bond yields?

#turningjapanese

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Indeed Japan tried the same route as the UK, huge deficits seemingly insurmountable public debt to GDP ratios .......end result debt deflation.

Agree with the OP though everybody seems to be in the pay of the public sector, on welfare or retired....surprised we can manage this on a 7% deficit alone.

Edited by crashmonitor

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Halligan is yet another inflationista. Right on issues. Wrong on outcomes. How can they not see what's in front of their eyes eg govt bond yields?

#turningjapanese

No, I think he's right on both counts. Just a matter of timing. Yes, we're turning Japanese, but what are the Japanese doing? Do you think they're ever going to stop printing? They can't, they're trapped, they have to hyperinflate. Helicopters and wheelbarrows, baby. Just like the BoE...

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Halligan is yet another inflationista. Right on issues. Wrong on outcomes. How can they not see what's in front of their eyes eg govt bond yields?

#turningjapanese

They won't/can't hyperinflate their way out of it, without serious consequences, which I believe much worse than accepting the inflation.

Gave up on Halligan years ago, even if his "inflation" has partial reflation has won out so far - I can tell you these policies stiffing younger people harder.

QE doesn't automically mean inflation - it could mean steady system, then crash, break the grip of the complacent older VI, and lend to younger generations at much lower prices... how financial system makes money.

Don't fall for the misdirection, imo.

8/27/2014

Why Does Europe Have A Problem With Deflation?

Did you know that Europe has a problem with creating inflation? Yes, it’s true: just like Japan, the big worry in Europe is deflation.

At first glance, you would think it can’t be all that hard to manufacture inflation. Venezuela and Zimbabwe manage it just fine, and I don’t think these countries contain genius level economists.

Maybe there are some brilliant central bankers in Sudan, Belarus, Iran, Syria, Ukraine, Argentina and Egypt–more countries that, unlike Europe and Japan, don’t have any problem creating inflation.

Economists must be like football stars; you need to import them from developing countries because it is only there that super-skills develop.

But you may say that those countries have hyper-inflation. That’s not what Europe wants–it’s after a 3%-5% inflation level, and that’s downright nearly impossible to engineer. But wait: call up the Philippines or Laos or Vietnam. The guys in Chad have the mojo; they’ve managed to target 5% inflation, maybe they can help.

continues: http://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/2014/08/27/why-does-europe-have-a-problem-with-deflation/

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No, I think he's right on both counts. Just a matter of timing. Yes, we're turning Japanese, but what are the Japanese doing? Do you think they're ever going to stop printing? They can't, they're trapped, they have to hyperinflate. Helicopters and wheelbarrows, baby. Just like the BoE...

Japan is moving from deflationary depression to inflationary depression. So what?

All these guys have been saying we'll be moving to super/hyper inflation. .. welll... soon Er. Took Japan 25 years.

Getting it right 25 years late is not getting it right.

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All power centres are tainted by power vacuums, how many millenia of recorded history are needed to recognise this, the tories,labour,UKIP,BNP, etc etc arent unique, they are simply taking advantage of of power mandated to them.

I saw an article recently on here saying down liblabcon, destroy them and let new parties (read power vacuums) rise up, the problem isnt MPs, its human nature

If tomorrow UKIP & the greens get 90% of the vote are there seriously enough people in the UK that wouldnt recognise the same career politicians theyve supposedly voted out wouldnt be in the parties theyve voted in,

The issue is millenia old, power vacuums, it would be completely unnatural (as history highlights) not to take advantage of that vacuum to ensure personal security

Fortunately humanity are so into the concept of special flowers that not having them seems unnatural

Just to say that UKIP is unique in that it has its core policy written in its name - United Kingdom Independence Party.

All the others have names that can mean almost anything and stand for anything.

Accepted UKIP as a party might in time prove not to be unique in the other respects although that still remains to be seen - whereas the branches of the LibLabCon have already demonstrated their dodgy colours time and time and time .......................................again and blatantly so.

Edited by billybong

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this is the tye of person that ukip needs as he is much more financial sensible . Wish he stood for election here i would vote for him as the other three partys are tainted in some way

It's possible that someone like this, who is educated and 'financial sensible' is what UKIP needs. I think this is called a dichotomy.

If he stood for election there would you vote for him? He seems to make it clear in his first paragraph that he doesn't support UKIP.

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