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Nationwide August 2014 - +0.8%

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There's no breakdown for London, last press release it was +26%y/y, must be getting near to 30%

From the article:

All eyes will still be on the London property market and where it goes next. There are definitely signs that the capital's market is cooling. The concern will be how far do prices have to drop before panic starts to set in."

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Never mind, a new bear market has started in London it's just not made Nationwide's mortgage lending figures yet. They must still be lending like a drunk bar-tender giving out drinks.

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Edited by Wurzel Of Highbridge

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When is this tanker going to effing turn..... Getting bored now!!!

Thinking we need some significant drops to put the silver-haired ones off dropping their pensions pots into BTL.

This bubble stinks.

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Land Reg for July 2014 is also out today. Monthly +1.7%, annual +7.2% (we already knew the monthly increase from Twitter earlier this month).

Rather than start a new thread I'll give the link to the report here:

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/348543/HPIReport20140828.pdf

Land registry is also showing a steep fall in London sales volume.

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I have long believed that we had a few months yet to run. London may be done, but the ripple is moving out...you can see that from the Midlands chart of time on the market...the London line is heading north the Midlands line in the opposite direction. It needs an interest rate rise now imo to stop this cancer spreading. Passed a house in rural Lincolnshire countryside this morning that has been camped on the market for about ten years...finally sold; guess some down in the South East have finally realised that they can swap a house on a sink council estate for a large country house a few miles north.

A crazy time to get into debt imo....food prices are collapsing, fuel prices are collapsing, China is importing deflation, gold is boringly stuck at $1300 because there is no inflation to hedge. Suddenly those six figure mortgages are going to prove a life sentence if we get stuck in this debt deflation.

Everything soon will be stuck at zero...house prices, inflation, wages....we are an ageing Western economy and we are going Japanese.....cataclysmic for debt holders.

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I have long believed that we had a few months yet to run. London may be done, but the ripple is moving out...you can see that from the Midlands chart of time on the market...the London line is heading north the Midlands line in the opposite direction. It needs an interest rate rise now imo to stop this cancer spreading. Passed a house in rural Lincolnshire countryside this morning that has been camped on the market for about ten years...finally sold; guess some down in the South East have finally realised that they can swap a house on a sink council estate for a large country house a few miles north.

A crazy time to get into debt imo....food prices are collapsing, fuel prices are collapsing, China is importing deflation, gold is boringly stuck at $1300 because there is no inflation to hedge. Suddenly those six figure mortgages are going to prove a life sentence if we get stuck in this debt deflation.

Everything soon will be stuck at zero...house prices, inflation, wages....we are an ageing Western economy and we are going Japanese.....cataclysmic for debt holders.

But - if nobody is buying in London, how can they sell and move out?

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No doubt about that, it will be positive and Dave will be able to say that even in the wilds of the North prices are above the 2007 levels. The challenge for the next (labour) government will be to keep the bubble sustained ... still they managed massive HPI last time they were in government so we have nothing to worry about. Housing is the UK economy and it is safe whoever wins the election. The HPI green shoots are now locked in .... there is some niggling thing about debt or deficit but I am sure it is nothing to worry about.

Labour reduced interest rates from 6% to 0.5% at the same time banks would give a loan to anyone who asked, hardly going to repeat that trick.

Conservatives only managed house price inflation using record breaking levels of propaganda, and underwriting loans with tax payers money.

There are no bullets left, the government is broke and borrowing 7% more than they are taking in tax. Hardly conducive to giving mortgage payers tax breaks etc.

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There are no bullets left, the government is broke and borrowing 7% more than they are taking in tax. Hardly conducive to giving mortgage payers tax breaks etc.

Sadly, I can't agree. I used to also say "the government can't stop it", but it's clearly not true - in fact, LibLabCon seems to be very clever with regard to propping up the housing market - shame they don't put such talent to good use elsewhere. Anyroad, some ideas for them:

- HtB up to 30%

- Stamp duty thresholds moved or lower band abolished (will just increase prices)

- reintroduction of MIRAS

- "cash for dumps" - given cash to refurb or trade in your old house for a new one

- mortgage debt to be paid from gross salary (they do this somewhere in Scandinavia IIRC

- Cash pension fund for BTL (Osborne's on the case - don't underestimate the desire of old fogies to do this, especially as they get f-all interest on savings and bond yields are so low)

- Pension funds forced to invest in domestic REITs or similar

- Corporate BTL tax breaks

Sure we could come up with many more ideas, but you get my drift. Don't underestimate the greed for power of politicians to truly ****** the country over.

Edited by mikthe20

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I have long believed that we had a few months yet to run. London may be done, but the ripple is moving out...you can see that from the Midlands chart of time on the market...the London line is heading north the Midlands line in the opposite direction. It needs an interest rate rise now imo to stop this cancer spreading. Passed a house in rural Lincolnshire countryside this morning that has been camped on the market for about ten years...finally sold; guess some down in the South East have finally realised that they can swap a house on a sink council estate for a large country house a few miles north.

A crazy time to get into debt imo....food prices are collapsing, fuel prices are collapsing, China is importing deflation, gold is boringly stuck at $1300 because there is no inflation to hedge. Suddenly those six figure mortgages are going to prove a life sentence if we get stuck in this debt deflation.

Everything soon will be stuck at zero...house prices, inflation, wages....we are an ageing Western economy and we are going Japanese.....cataclysmic for debt holders.

Has someone hacked this account? :P

I can't see too many SE & London sellers going on to sell and still meet high asking prices in other regions. Sure there will be a few of them, but they are not going to absorb all the houses on market in regions of the north. Each time they need to find a buyer for their own SE/London homes too. And even when they do sell at toppy London prices, it doesn't buy you much in South Manchester/Cheshire edges.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IOenyj2AC54

Edited by Venger

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Sadly, I can't agree. I used to also say "the government can't stop it", but it's clearly not true - in fact, LibLabCon seems to be very clever with regard to propping up the housing market - shame they don't put such talent to good use elsewhere. Anyroad, some ideas for them:

- HtB up to 30%

- Stamp duty thresholds moved or lower band abolished (will just increase prices)

- reintroduction of MIRAS

- "cash for dumps" - given cash to refurb or trade in your old house for a new one

- mortgage debt to be paid from gross salary (they do this somewhere in Scandinavia IIRC

- Cash pension fund for BTL (Osborne's on the case - don't underestimate the desire of old fogies to do this, especially as they get f-all interest on savings and bond yields are so low)

- Pension funds forced to invest in domestic REITs or similar

- Corporate BTL tax breaks

Sure we could come up with many more ideas, but you get my drift. Don't underestimate the greed for power of politicians to truly ****** the country over.

- HtB up to 30% - A possibility
- Stamp duty thresholds moved or lower band abolished (will just increase prices) - Where's the money coming from?
- reintroduction of MIRAS - Where's the money coming from?
- "cash for dumps" - given cash to refurb or trade in your old house for a new one - Where's the money coming from?
- mortgage debt to be paid from gross salary (they do this somewhere in Scandinavia IIRC - is this not the same as MIRAS - Where's the money coming from?
- Cash pension fund for BTL (Osborne's on the case - don't underestimate the desire of old fogies to do this, especially as they get f-all interest on savings and bond yields are so low) - A possibility
- Pension funds forced to invest in domestic REITs or similar - Unlikely
- Corporate BTL tax breaks - Where's the money coming from?
There is nowhere for mortgage rate to drop to, terms are already averaging 28 years for FTB's, BTL yields are non-existent.

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- HtB up to 30% - A possibility
- Stamp duty thresholds moved or lower band abolished (will just increase prices) - Where's the money coming from?
- reintroduction of MIRAS - Where's the money coming from?
- "cash for dumps" - given cash to refurb or trade in your old house for a new one - Where's the money coming from?
- mortgage debt to be paid from gross salary (they do this somewhere in Scandinavia IIRC - is this not the same as MIRAS - Where's the money coming from?
- Cash pension fund for BTL (Osborne's on the case - don't underestimate the desire of old fogies to do this, especially as they get f-all interest on savings and bond yields are so low) - A possibility
- Pension funds forced to invest in domestic REITs or similar - Unlikely
- Corporate BTL tax breaks - Where's the money coming from?
There is nowhere for mortgage rate to drop to, terms are already averaging 28 years for FTB's, BTL yields are non-existent.

Everyone else...

Never underestimate what can be done....

Savings pots take a one off tax, you know, like the number of other taxes that were introduced as a temporary measure....

Pensions - either take directly, impose "regulation costs", force all pensions to be held in a "government bond" or simply keep putting the age up where you can access it, say 103.

Reduce and privatise front line services - military, NHS etc..

Introduce "dignitas" style clinics. Possibly introduce quotas and targets for medical professionals to utilise these facilities.

Start or get involved in a war....

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