Is The Gulf Stream Dying?

[malco]

There is evidence that the Gulf Stream Atlantic Conveyor is weakening:

http://www.energybulletin.net/11352.html

An increase in rain and meltwater from melting glaciers reduces the salinity of the sea off Norway and hinders the sinking of warm water. This causes the Gulf Stream to "back up" and slow, since it is the sinking of cooling water off Norway that powers the "global thermal conveyor belt" that carries warm seas up from the equatorial climes to northern Europe. If this weakening is permanent, it would lead to a cooling of the British Isles, and much colder winters.

Seems to indicate an exacerbation of our energy supply problem. British houses are poorly equipped to withstand cold winters. Britain's stock of brick Victorian terraces must be amongst the crumbiest housing stock in Europe. They won't last forever anyway.

Edited December 4, 2005 by malco

[Portent]

There is evidence that the Gulf Stream is weakening:

http://www.energybulletin.net/11352.html

An increase in rain and meltwater from melting glaciers reduces the salinity of the sea off Norway and hinders the sinking of warm water. This causes the Gulf Stream to "back up" and slow, since it is the sinking of cooling water off Norway that powers the "global thermal conveyor belt" that carries warm seas up from the equatorial climes to northern Europe. If this weakening is permanent, it would lead to a cooling of the British Isles, and much colder winters.

Seems to indicate an exacerbation of our energy supply problem. British houses are poorly equipped to withstand cold winters. Britain's stock of brick Victorian terraces must be amongst the crumbiest housing stock in Europe. They won't last forever anyway.

This news worries me a lot. Quite frankly if the conveyor belt system in the Gulf Stream stops then we are going to get a lot colder. It's happened several times in the past and each time it has heralded an ice age in northern Europe. Will it this time? Unknown. But it's not good news and the price of houses could be the least of our worries.

[Reality Check]

Funny you should mention this. I had this exact topic of conversation with my senior manager on Friday who said Britain would suffer enormously from the effects as we would not be able to provide enough energy for ourselves and our infrastructure wouldn't (currently) be able to cope with such harsh winters which Eastern Europe, Norway & Denmark are accustomed to. He advised me to buy a property in Africa instead.....(jokingly of course)

[Elizabeth]

What will it do for a HPC? Uganda is looking good!

If the gulf stream stops, when I have fought my way up though the 30 foot of ice that will engulf us I will need a strong cuppa before logging onto HPC to check how the igloos are selling in Devon!

Edited December 3, 2005 by Elizabeth

[isv]

If this really happens house prices are the last thing we'll all be worrying about (no doubt someones thinking "great time to buy!").

The amount of energy in the Gulf Stream is phenomenal - we'd need more than a few nuclear power stations to compensate (if we ever could)!

[Elizabeth]

I think we need to compensate with human warmth. I intend to be living in the grounds of a model agency.

What? The ones doing those actic covers with the fabulous furs. Careful. You'll have the animal libbers fire bombing you!

[munro]

Durch, please don't EVER change your avatar!!

[munro]

What could be upsetting about seeing a squirrel tail hanging off my gee-tar!

Hmmm...TBH I really like the present one, but now you've put that thought in my mind...

On-topic, though, strange thing is I met up with a friend today who likes to go sunning on an island off Africa (can't remember it's name, silly me) and he says in the last 15 months the sea temperature is up by several degrees due to the Gulf Stream weakening. First time I've heard this brought up in conversation. All a bit scary.

[Lou G]

I too remember seeing this programme and again at the back of our minds its one advantage to renting.!

If I recall its not if its when and it could happen 10 years from now or 100 years. May be its not a bad idea to get a visa for Australia just in case.!!!

[Starcrossed]

This would not necessarily mean the end of civilisation in the UK - Finland et al have a good standard of living with a similar climate to that envisaged with the end of the Gulf Stream.

It would need to be a pretty darn quick learning curve, though.

However, I would not want to live in Finland after this happens - it would probably push down their temperatures by another 5-10C as well.

Edited December 4, 2005 by Starcrossed

[Rapid Descent]

Hmm, I've posted on this topic before - there is a lot of sensationalist reporting of this study, and doubtless there is a lot of potential to learn from this study - but the facts don't all tie in.

Firstly, to correct a common misconception repeated in a number of areas, the gulf stream is driven by the winds and the motion of the earth, and as long as the winds keep blowing, and the earth keeps turning, the gulf stream will be a part of the worlds climate. The gulf stream is unlikely to slow by 30% any time soon, and in fact this study is not analysing the gulf stream itself. They should be referring to the north atlantic drift circulation currents, which are a part of the closed loop ocean currents associated with the gulf stream.

The main "holes" in the understanding of this study are: if (as reported) the majority of this slowdown occurred between 1992-1998, we would have felt it already. But recent years have seen average UK temperature climbing, not falling.

Also, the uncertainty bands: the study reports the volume falling from 25 Sv by 8 Sv; but the confidence intervals on the measurement are 6 Sv - and it may be even higher than that as the error bars are difficult to derive for these measurements. So, "virtually no change" is a possible outcome of this study... of course, that isn't very newsworthy.

There are many other issues to do with sampling and paucity of the data. All in all, the death of the north atlantic drift current has probably been greatly exaggerated by the press.

Even traditionally pro-warming scientists are busy pouring cold water on this latest media splurge.

[FreeTrader]

I second Rapid Descent's cautionary post regarding this paper.

See the sober critique by Martin Visbeck at RealClimate (comment 25 at the link below):

Decrease in Atlantic circulation?

[right_freds_dead]

It's happened several times in the past and each time it has heralded an ice age in northern Europe. Will it this time?

its different this time.

[large]

If the gulf stream is driven by wind and the earth's rotation then why do all the major studies on this subject suggest it is driven by heavy salty water plunging in the North Atlantic?

There is evidence that the conveyor has shut down many times in the past, and that it doesn't bring an ice age as such, as ice ages involve the advancing of glaciers from the poles and this takes centuries, rather it causes a rapid cooling of Northern Europe. One degree in a decade is absolute tosh, the North Atlantic would lose all the excess warmth (8-10 degrees) within 18 months. It could start up a decade later, or it could be a few centuries or more. In the meantime the UK economy would collapse and over 90% of the population would eithe starve or leave. It's all very well saying people in Finland are fine, but they have a tiny population in comparison and are geared up to cope with the conditions.

If it did happen it wouldn't just be Europe and the Eastern seaboard of the US that would be affected, but tropical regions too as the Gulf stream effects the whole global current system. Monsoons would fail causing mass starvation in tropical regions. Basically the human world would be a mess until the excess population had been shaken out. It would be one of the worst things to happen to you or I, but it would be a good thing for the planet.

Edited December 4, 2005 by large

[zorn]

If the gulf stream is driven by wind and the earth's rotation then why do all the major studies on this subject suggest it is driven by heavy salty water plunging in the North Atlantic?

There are two main currents in the north Atlantic. The Gulf Stream is largely wind-driven, and takes the warm water up to about 30 degrees north. The North Atlantic Drift is largely driven by the thermohaline circulation, and takes it up to the Arctic. The entire system is colloquially referred to as the Gulf Stream.

So the Gulf Stream can't shut down, but that doesn't do any good to areas north of 30 degrees, and the possibility of the North Atlantic Drift shutting down is referred to in the popular press as the Gulf Stream shutting down because that's what their readers will think they understand.

Edited December 4, 2005 by zorn

[Time to raise the rents.]

So basically you lot are predicting a housing boom in Aus & NZ based on demographic shifts.

[homeless]

So basically you lot are predicting a housing boom in Aus & NZ based on demographic shifts.

na it will be so hot there your face will melt off

[Spoony]

Seriously? Will it? Does this mean that the south of england will be artic but scotland will remain the same or perhaps a bit warmer? Will it mean a mass exodus to Scotland or Ireland. If so London prices will be the first to go.

[Nelly]

I think your all forgeting the most important problem this will cause. Planes comming back from areica benefit from the gulf stream by an hour, so if it does disapear we will have an extra hour to wait before we can smoke a cigg again.

[Elizabeth]

I think your all forgeting the most important problem this will cause. Planes comming back from areica benefit from the gulf stream by an hour, so if it does disapear we will have an extra hour to wait before we can smoke a cigg again.

LMAO. So True. So True.

[Spoony]

Never mind your extra hour without a fag, it will do you good. You should give up anyway. Terrible habit.

Just another hour of back of the seat films.

[zorn]

I think your all forgeting the most important problem this will cause. Planes comming back from areica benefit from the gulf stream by an hour, so if it does disapear we will have an extra hour to wait before we can smoke a cigg again.

I think you'll find that's the jetstream, not the Gulf Stream.

[Elizabeth]

I think you'll find that's the jetstream, not the Gulf Stream.

Jet stream? Gulf stream? Its really not worth splitting hairs when your hanging for a long draw of nicotine. Anyway, we smokers know that whatever natural disasters / economic failures / hiccups in the sex lives of politicians happen the first thing to be affected is the price of a packet of fags!

[Spoony]

mmm. All the more reason to give up then

[right_freds_dead]

i like some of the posts here - "do you think that will affect house prices" and "should we dress for armageddon ?".

if we plunge into an ice age your hardly going to able to catch the number 143 bus to work at pets corner anymore. everything will change. no more pointing to consumer goods in glossy magazines on a sunday, while sat on a white leather DFS sofa viewing a wide screen tv with ambient backlight.

honest. it will be ration packs dropped from a UN helicoperter. if were lucky.