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Telegraph: Another Surge In House Prices Is Just Around The Corner

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UK house prices outside London are expected to surge in the second half of the year, as a leading estate agent revises its five-year forecast.

International property company Savills expects average annual UK house price to grow by 9.5pc this year, ahead of the 6.5pc originally forecast. The revision comes off the back of frenzied rises earlier this year.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11056099/Another-surge-in-house-prices-is-just-around-the-corner.html

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I suspect that was their plan all along.....get LKndon up then get everything else up to the same mental level.

Just one problem....no one out side of london is mental enough to pay the asking prices now let alone if there is another jump up.

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Sadly I do think this forecast is probably correct. London is done, but now it's the continuation of the ripple effect out into the popular areas.

Personally I don't think the proper correction will come until at least the general election, or a proper crash again in 2016.

With the amount of stock on the London market the prices can't rise further now IMO, though supply of full houses (rather than flats) is still low in certain areas and that's all that's holding it up now along with the low rates.

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Hard to say for sure, but it looks like embarrassingly incompetent financial reporting from the telegraph. Due to taking into account the surge in prices in the first half year, saville's have had to revise up their estimate for the whole year from 6.5 to 9.5% and the telegraph journalist thinks that because the forecast got increased mid way through the year, it must mean that there is a big increase coming in the second half. In fact, saville's estimates have been revised down for future years.

(I want to express my outrage and anger at their stupidity, but I'm having to restrain myself just in case I'm wrong)

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We are at a critical point........we are experiencing the August holiday slowdown, it happens every year. It's hard to see a ripple being reversed mid flow. It's against physics, we probably need some devine intervention from Moses, or just something sensible from Carney like bloody raising interest rates.

Edited by crashmonitor

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I suspect the bearish article are written by a non-homeowner and the bullish articles are written by someone who just didn't want to miss out.

We saw plenty of articles like this in 2007...none of them based on anything other than wishful thinking.

This time around though the crash will be much worse thanks to those insightful etonians in Downing street.

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. It's against physics, we probably need some devine intervention from Moses, or just something sensible from Carney like bloody raising interest rates.

We've seen the ripple already.

It's the next ripple that's on it's way.

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In fact, having got past looking at the numbers and read the rest of the article, it is even contradicting it's own source in the second half.

"The revised figures have been driven by record house price growth in London in the first half of the year, driving 15pc against a previously published forecast of 8.5 per cent, despite an anticipated slowing in the second half of the year.

So far this year values in London have significantly exceeded forecasts, with all expected to end the year well into double digits.

However, there are signs that demand is weakening, with lead indicators suggesting a change in sentiment in London.

Savills therefore expects a slowdown in London over the second half of the year.

“But these extraordinary rates of house price growth cannot continue in the current, more regulated mortgage environment, particularly in the face of likely interest rate rises,” said Mr Cook."

So not just incompetent journalism, incompetent editing and sub editing. Now that I can justifiably express my anger at their stupidity, I just feel worn out and depressed.

Edited by Steppenpig

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Good news for London from the article:

Savills therefore expects a slowdown in London over the second half of the year. “But these extraordinary rates of house price growth cannot continue in the current, more regulated mortgage environment, particularly in the face of likely interest rate rises,” said Mr Cook.

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So not just incompetent journalism, incompetent editing and sub editing. Now that I can justifiably express my anger at their stupidity, I just feel worn out and depressed.

It's competent, if it's meant to instil fear and bend the truth so they rush out and support the economy ponzi

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Actually, it's not embarrassingly incompetent "financial" journalism, it's embarrassingly incompetent "property and enterprise correspondent" journalism, so par for the course.

Fine looking filly though. What does it matter if she can't do the sums.

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Anyone who thinks the north or midlands is on the verge of another boom should try a selling a house (or three) in those areas, as myself, partner and sister are all currently trying to do.

Mine: In four months no viewings, no offers, asking price dropped twice.

OH's house: three viewings in a year, no offers, asking price dropped three times.

So far my sister's house is doing the best: Two viewings in two months, one offer 15% below asking price!

Suffice to say the boom doesn't appear to have arrived in Lincs quite yet.

Edited by Neil D Possitt

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In fact, having got past looking at the numbers and read the rest of the article, it is even contradicting it's own source in the second half.

"The revised figures have been driven by record house price growth in London in the first half of the year, driving 15pc against a previously published forecast of 8.5 per cent, despite an anticipated slowing in the second half of the year.

So far this year values in London have significantly exceeded forecasts, with all expected to end the year well into double digits.

However, there are signs that demand is weakening, with lead indicators suggesting a change in sentiment in London.

Savills therefore expects a slowdown in London over the second half of the year.

“But these extraordinary rates of house price growth cannot continue in the current, more regulated mortgage environment, particularly in the face of likely interest rate rises,” said Mr Cook."

So not just incompetent journalism, incompetent editing and sub editing. Now that I can justifiably express my anger at their stupidity, I just feel worn out and depressed.

I will save someone the effort.

FEAR

Since people are not able to borrow any more and mortgage rates cannot possibly go lower (2.2% for tracker), excluding wage rises or price delfation (both unlikely) it's simply imposible for prices outside London to rise any further.

Maximum affordability has been reached. The only way to get a further 10% rise would be 0% mortgages! Even then after a rise caused by 0% mortgage rates you would hit the lifetime affordability problem where you could never earn enough to repay the loan.

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