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Months Worth Of Stock

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I've done a bit of analysis to calculate the amount of stock currently on the market in my search area.

I went to the following website

http://www.freemaptools.com/find-uk-postcodes-inside-radius.htm

and downloaded a list of all the postcodes within 3 miles of my station, then went to the land registry and downloaded the prices sold data for the last 18 months. Did a bit of filtering and lookups to establish which of the house sale data actually referred to my search area, and compared this to the number of houses for sale on rightmove.

By this slightly imperfect method, I've calculated that there have been 58 houses sold within 3 miles of my station since the beginning of 2013, so thats 3.2 per month. The number of listings for the same search on rightmove is 82, and taking in to account duplicate listings (not an exact science due to new builds as there are probably multiple houses for sale) I'd estimate that there are about 70 separate houses for sale, which is equivalent to approx 22 months of stock on the market. I don't have a benchmark to compare this to, but this strikes me as rather a lot of stock. As an accountant, I'd be marking down my stock if I had 22 months worth, but it seems others are happy to wait until someone "pays what its worth".

One obvious limitation of the data is that sales of houses marketed at 520, but completing at sub 500 will not appear in LR data, but the equivalent house would be on RM search, but this would be countered slightly by houses marketed at above the 700 mark but sold just below.

I just re cut data to include houses between 495k and 700k and it only added 3 houses over the 18 month period.

Would be interesting know what others experiences are and whether 22 months of stock is considered a lot by others.

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Great, all that is needed for a HPC now is a reason for all the "owners" to panic and sell.

Perhaps it will happen this time.

You don't need a crash...all you need is for the last similar property to sell for less than the last property in the same area......excess stock, meaning fewer willing/able buyers will see that happens.

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Maybe wrong but aren't a lot of the houses for sale being lived in so it's not stock. People moving from one occupied house to another occupied house?

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The stats, in particular rightmove's circa 90 days it takes to sell a house, is at odds with 22 months stock. Houses are far more difficult to sell than most people realise even when we are supposed to be in a boom. Clearly drops outs don't figure in the final analysis....and drop outs are relistings or vendors that have simply given up.

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I've done a bit of analysis to calculate the amount of stock currently on the market in my search area.

I went to the following website

http://www.freemaptools.com/find-uk-postcodes-inside-radius.htm

and downloaded a list of all the postcodes within 3 miles of my station, then went to the land registry and downloaded the prices sold data for the last 18 months. Did a bit of filtering and lookups to establish which of the house sale data actually referred to my search area, and compared this to the number of houses for sale on rightmove.

By this slightly imperfect method, I've calculated that there have been 58 houses sold within 3 miles of my station since the beginning of 2013, so thats 3.2 per month. The number of listings for the same search on rightmove is 82, and taking in to account duplicate listings (not an exact science due to new builds as there are probably multiple houses for sale) I'd estimate that there are about 70 separate houses for sale, which is equivalent to approx 22 months of stock on the market. I don't have a benchmark to compare this to, but this strikes me as rather a lot of stock. As an accountant, I'd be marking down my stock if I had 22 months worth, but it seems others are happy to wait until someone "pays what its worth".

One obvious limitation of the data is that sales of houses marketed at 520, but completing at sub 500 will not appear in LR data, but the equivalent house would be on RM search, but this would be countered slightly by houses marketed at above the 700 mark but sold just below.

I just re cut data to include houses between 495k and 700k and it only added 3 houses over the 18 month period.

Would be interesting know what others experiences are and whether 22 months of stock is considered a lot by others.

How many EA's are in your patch.

Interesting line of enquiry.

I've noticed there's more stock coming online in the Midlands of late.

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How many EA's are in your patch.

Interesting line of enquiry.

I've noticed there's more stock coming online in the Midlands of late.

There are quite a few high street agents, a quick google suggests 7 with premises in the town that do sales (there are a couple of others that do just lettings). There are also a few of he virtual agents that operate from further afield or completely remotely.

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The stats, in particular rightmove's circa 90 days it takes to sell a house, is at odds with 22 months stock. Houses are far more difficult to sell than most people realise even when we are supposed to be in a boom. Clearly drops outs don't figure in the final analysis....and drop outs are relistings or vendors that have simply given up.

Yes - difficult to know how they derive their stats. Although I would say its reasonable to expect that houses in the 100-300 range would generally sell quicker than in the 500-700 range. Hopefully we will see stock continue to build from the 22 month level I have calculated until some would be sellers realise that they will have to cut the price significantly.

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Maybe wrong but aren't a lot of the houses for sale being lived in so it's not stock. People moving from one occupied house to another occupied house?

I would say thats a caviat...but if the market is "houses ON the market" then yes, they are part of the market and its "stock" Its one of the reasons why slow chains are real pain in the butt, as there usually isnt an empty one to break it up.

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There are quite a few high street agents, a quick google suggests 7 with premises in the town that do sales (there are a couple of others that do just lettings). There are also a few of he virtual agents that operate from further afield or completely remotely.

Makes you wonder how they survive?

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A less scientific method - I have some relatives over from abroad, the first thing they noticed when driving around " wow there is a lot of real estate here for sale"

Lots and lots of boards in yorkshire

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800,000 on rightmove.

I estimate that is 13 months stock.

shortage?

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