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When Do You Reckon The Market Will Bottom

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Until we see how steep the decline is, how can we predict the bottom? If the authorities keep chucking resources at it, maybe there will just be a steady 5% annual decline for 12 years or more? A big crash, that will cause a lot of pain in the short term, may mean recovery after a couple of years, but the government will do almost anything to prevent that scenario.

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Based on Martin Armstrong's Economic confidence model it will be done and dusted by 2020, but I would say the UK housing market will be a couple of years ahead of that, so 2018 for me.

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We usually get a bit of panic mid cycle....on Harrison's 18 year cycle 1989-2007...and now 2007-2025 we are scheduled for a bit of panic around 2016 and the big one in 2025.

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I think it depends where in the UK you live. Outside of London SE I think house prices will continue to rise. London SE has got ahead of its self and is due for a fall. Comes back to what I have been saying in another post 4% yield is the break even point.

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Oh thats right its all coming from wage increases isn't it. :lol::lol::lol:

Yep.

BoE can place nominal wages wherever they want them. If they decide to target 5% nominal wage rises that's where they'll go.

It's really not difficult to grasp is it.

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Depends what daft schemes the Government can invent and which part of the country you live in.

We should have fallen earlier and harder than the US by any historical comparison. The fact that we haven't (mostly) tells you all you need to know. The loons are in charge; and much of the public likes what they see enough to vote for them.

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Yep.

BoE can place nominal wages wherever they want them. If they decide to target 5% nominal wage rises that's where they'll go.

It's really not difficult to grasp is it.

Real wages are what matters. 5% wage growth is no good if consumer prices are growing at 10%. There's no mystery, NGDP targeting and QE don't work. Just ask the Japanese.

The mantra of Mr Abe and his advisers has been that a virtuous circle would come about whereby wages would rise and lift consumer spending, which in turn would boost investment by companies. Bingo: Japan would emerge from deflation. That is not happening and it is a conundrum.

Yet despite a tight labour market, real wages continue to tumble (see chart). In May they fell by 3.8% compared with a year earlier—the steepest decline in years. That is despite the government’s use of moral suasion to get companies to hike basic pay in annual wage negotiations with unions this spring. Officials marched into boardrooms to demand higher pay for workers. Households were always likely to feel squeezed after the government raised Japan’s consumption tax in April, from 5% to 8%. Slightly higher inflation, stoked by the Bank of Japan’s massive easing, adds to the effect. But the government was expecting real wages to rise.

http://www.economist.com/news/asia/21611152-even-jobs-grow-scarce-real-wages-continue-fall-feeling-pinch

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Yep.

BoE can place nominal wages wherever they want them. If they decide to target 5% nominal wage rises that's where they'll go.

It's really not difficult to grasp is it.

BOE don't set wages. Hope that helps.

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BOE don't set wages. Hope that helps.

They set the nominal price level, same difference. Hope that helps.

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Real wages are what matters. 5% wage growth is no good if consumer prices are growing at 10%. There's no mystery, NGDP targeting and QE don't work. Just ask the Japanese.

If Japan is your answer to everything you need to do something else with your time.

The question was: When will the market bottom. My answer was April '09. I might just have easily said whatever month it was in 1974 or 1983 or 1996.

Are you really this dumb? (rhetorical, obviously)

Edited by R K

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Are you really this dumb? (rhetorical, obviously)

...asks the individual who constantly berates others for directing ad hominem attacks against him.

I don't know what burned you so badly to make you so bitter RK, but I for one still hope that in due course we'll see the return of the amazingly astute yet self-deprecating Red Karma that we once knew and so much admired.

He was one of the finest posters who ever graced this forum.

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Rule no.1, never feed a troll's ego.

...asks the individual who constantly berates others for directing ad hominem attacks against him.

I don't know what burned you so badly to make you so bitter RK, but I for one still hope that in due course we'll see the return of the amazingly astute yet self-deprecating Red Karma that we once knew and so much admired.

He was one of the finest posters who ever graced this forum.

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I don't know what burned you so badly to make you so bitter RK

The embarrassment that is the wages must rise to blah de whatever thread?

You got it wrong RK, it happens, get on with your life.

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It's going to be 10 x worse than 2008, it's just a question of when.

I think the bottom was 2008.... I think it might need a massive crisis of 2008 proportions to see similar prices

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If Japan is your answer to everything you need to do something else with your time.

The question was: When will the market bottom. My answer was April '09. I might just have easily said whatever month it was in 1974 or 1983 or 1996.

Are you really this dumb? (rhetorical, obviously)

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Until we see how steep the decline is, how can we predict the bottom? If the authorities keep chucking resources at it, maybe there will just be a steady 5% annual decline for 12 years or more? A big crash, that will cause a lot of pain in the short term, may mean recovery after a couple of years, but the government will do almost anything to prevent that scenario.

There are no resources left to throw at it. Interest rates are 0.5% and the government are running a 7% deficit!

Where's the cash coming from to support the Ponzi?

Edited by Wurzel Of Highbridge

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