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John The Pessimist

Hpc Deferred

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We don't need rates to rise for hpc.

Just need market to run out of buyers/mortgage borrowers, unwilling or unable to meet these asking prices.

Although looking at them still pushing and falling over themselves to pay high prices on other forums... at these price levels, that could be someway off. MMR is having some effect though, with valuers also being cautious.

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Firstly that's the interbank BOE rate which has diverged from retail rates and secondly lack of liquidity can be just as effective as we saw after 2008.

Rates are not going up, I think everyone here knows that.

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Firstly that's the interbank BOE rate which has diverged from retail rates and secondly lack of liquidity can be just as effective as we saw after 2008.

Rates are not going up, I think everyone here knows that.

Good point to throw at the bulls. House prices fell without interest rate rising during 2008 to 2011

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P.S Great excuse.

If rates went up and house prices crash many of us would be better off, not worse off....so why is this a valid argument....answer...ITS NOT, IT@S ONLY A ****ING EXCUSE THAT SUITS TPTB.

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Falling wages + Much less credit around = BIG HPC

Let's face it, wages wont be going up now will rates, so the majority of the population needs DEFLATION. We need the pound in our pocket to be worth just a bit more.

The public sector need to actually make some cuts, not pretend cuts but real cuts.

The government needs to stop borrowing.

There could well be a pension crisis coming.

The US sets the interest rates.

Because of the insane lonodn bubble we now have a massive instability in house prices.

The Russians are coming.

The chines have already shot their bolt.

Nothing points to a stable and rising house prices.....

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fraud

"Fraud is a deception deliberately practiced in order to secure unfair or unlawful gain"

Have the banks secure unfair or unlawful gain using the low interest rate policy ?

Would anyone consider the BoE's low interest rate policy traud ?

Which police department to you contact to have the a chancellor of the exchequer arrested ? :lol:

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falling wages = HPC.

Reality will prevail.

MMR, MMR again - it's pretty good and worth repeating twice, more recent buyers on teaser deals being downvalued and bumped onto higher rate mortgage deals, if not SVRs.... "fewer quality buyers."

I don't see any salary inflation in our future for years to come, and that's the only kind of inflation that boosts house prices. Inflation in everything else (food, energy, medical) just takes away from the money people have to spend on housing.

Rightmove Index June 2014 Shipside notes: “Many serious buyers who were waiting in the wings have now bought and moved in, taking a slug out of the pent-up demand for a few years to come, and the consequent chatter on the street is that quality buyers are now thinner on the ground. The next wave of buyers may have less motivation or ability to buy and sellers are going to have to be sensitive to their local market and not pitch their asking prices too high as choosy buyers will not arrange to come and visit.”

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fraud

"Fraud is a deception deliberately practiced in order to secure unfair or unlawful gain"

Have the banks secure unfair or unlawful gain using the low interest rate policy ?

Would anyone consider the BoE's low interest rate policy traud ?

Which police department to you contact to have the a chancellor of the exchequer arrested ? :lol:

what about "incitement" to borrow.?

ie never ending barrage of TV programmes telling you house prices only ever go up.(controlled media, perception management etc)

when you rig the market through either "extortionware" or deliberate and misleading programming playing on greed/fear then surely that also counts as "obtaining money by deception"..which is illegal practice.

just as valid for corporates as it is for the individual.

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what about "incitement" to borrow.?

ie never ending barrage of TV programmes telling you house prices only ever go up.(controlled media, perception management etc)

when you rig the market through either "extortionware" or deliberate and misleading programming playing on greed/fear then surely that also counts as "obtaining money by deception"..which is illegal practice.

by extortion-ware the most basic example of this would be for instance microsoft employing a team of hackers/engineers to create and unleash viruses and backdoors specifically for winXP, to hack into paypal/bank accounts etc(not that the loss of any other money would be of concern to microsoft..it is just for the purposes of creating the problem,not for direct monetary gain but through indirect inconvenience)....so that people need to upgrade to windows 8.1.

it's a bit more sutle than the occasional dodgy spam mail.

the same terminology could be applied in other avenues

just as valid for corporates as it is for the individual.

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what about "incitement" to borrow.?

ie never ending barrage of TV programmes telling you house prices only ever go up.(controlled media, perception management etc)

when you rig the market through either "extortionware" or deliberate and misleading programming playing on greed/fear then surely that also counts as "obtaining money by deception"..which is illegal practice.

just as valid for corporates as it is for the individual.

That would mean taking on the whole system, and any complaints against the actual system would be dealt with the same as a complaint against the Queen, it would be ignored. The only hope is that the sheeple are so squeezed that they go off borrowing too much to get property for a couple of decades, or that the new generation coming up don`t want to play the game.

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I expected stagnant wages, and the base rate rises to begin this year...

Not wage rises of course, RK has been quiet :lol:

Its a pity there is talk of postponing the rate rises, after the election I would suggest.

Of course the cost of borrowing is what we need to rise significantly, and the base rates are just one input to that. The cynic in me wonders if they realised their pre-election stimulus came too soon and thats the real reason for the postponement.

We'll see. However you look at it, not good news for a HPI addict, wheres the money going to come from?

Edited by cybernoid

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I would expect the taxpayer to contribute with some extra scheme, larger deposits made available or stamp duty holiday with new bands to 'get the housing market moving and enable hard-working families to get onto the property ladder'.

Indeed. Maybe they will increase HTB to 40% of value. I'm sure the government will find something else to throw at the housing market to keep the HPI ball rolling! Anyway, FTB's don't matter when everyone wants to do BTL and the MMR rules aren't affecting them!

Just wanted to add.. Anyone see any black swans that could make a major change to the BOE's position on IRs?

Edited by renting til I die

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I like the way that Carney say rates won't lift till 2015. He's hardly likely to put them up before the election and then the next government won't sit back allow him to do it.

I listen to a radio talk show about the fall in expected wage growth. They had a series of public sector workers moaning that they'd had no pay rises for five years.The host of the show had to keep reminding them that they'd had the one to two percent increase to cover inflation. It was obvious that in the days of nu liebour they'd seen substantial rises as routine and reality was a shock.

I think the public sectors perceived lack of wage growth being involved in the housing market. Though they make up a smaller part of the economy than five years ago it probably greater than BTL which is about fifteen to eighteen percent.

I wouldn't be surprised if we get Liebour at the next election they'll plough ahead with pay rises of their public sector cronies. It won't help HPI as over sixty percent of the market is in the hands of people who have seen inflation eat into their wages and are suffering drastic falls in living standards.

These private sector workers are the spark that'll ignite all the wooden economic props holding the corners of the housing market from collapse. It'll be like those TV shows where Fred Dibnah had propped up the corner of a redundant industrial chimney. He'd just strike one match and light a tiny fire, soon the props would be alight and once they gave way down came the chimney.

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I like the way that Carney say rates won't lift till 2015. He's hardly likely to put them up before the election and then the next government won't sit back allow him to do it.

I listen to a radio talk show about the fall in expected wage growth. They had a series of public sector workers moaning that they'd had no pay rises for five years.The host of the show had to keep reminding them that they'd had the one to two percent increase to cover inflation. It was obvious that in the days of nu liebour they'd seen substantial rises as routine and reality was a shock.

I think the public sectors perceived lack of wage growth being involved in the housing market. Though they make up a smaller part of the economy than five years ago it probably greater than BTL which is about fifteen to eighteen percent.

I wouldn't be surprised if we get Liebour at the next election they'll plough ahead with pay rises of their public sector cronies. It won't help HPI as over sixty percent of the market is in the hands of people who have seen inflation eat into their wages and are suffering drastic falls in living standards.

These private sector workers are the spark that'll ignite all the wooden economic props holding the corners of the housing market from collapse. It'll be like those TV shows where Fred Dibnah had propped up the corner of a redundant industrial chimney. He'd just strike one match and light a tiny fire, soon the props would be alight and once they gave way down came the chimney.

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-2065569/Average-public-sector-salary-3-800-year-time-average-private-sector.html

"Average public sector salary is £3,800 a year more than full-time average in private sector"

So the people that are forced to pay for the public sector are paid less and with worse pensions. This is out of kilter and since real tax payers wages are falling the public sector has a lot of pain to come.

The day it was more beneficial to work for the public sector rather than wealth generating companies was the day the UK was doomed to fail. The day people started to rely on ever increasing house prices to fund their spending and retirement was the day that failure was doomed to be catastrophic.

The public sector are in charge of the country, no one in the public sector will give back the golden egg, we now face the fact that the only way to stop their self rewarding is all out collapse.

A terrifying prospect I think you'll agree.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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From that show what came across is that they've had years of rapidly improving living standards and they just don't see that.

Post the next election who ever gets in will have to continue with the cuts program. If it Liebour I can see them bumping up wages for their public sector brothers whilst trying to fund that by reducing costs by restricting what they actually do.

Its going to be a shock at how we'll end up paying for services that aren't provided despite seeing the continuance of the bloated payroll in the public sector.

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From that show what came across is that they've had years of rapidly improving living standards and they just don't see that.

Post the next election who ever when labour gets in will have to continue with the cuts program. If it Liebour I can see them bumping up wages for their public sector brothers whilst trying to fund that by reducing costs by restricting what they actually do.

Its going to be a shock at how we'll end up paying for services that aren't provided despite seeing the continuance of the bloated payroll in the public sector.

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From that show what came across is that they've had years of rapidly improving living standards and they just don't see that.

Post the next election who ever when labour gets in will have to continue with the cuts program. If it Liebour I can see them bumping up wages for their public sector brothers whilst trying to fund that by reducing costs by restricting what they actually do.

Its going to be a shock at how we'll end up paying for services that aren't provided despite seeing the continuance of the bloated payroll in the public sector.

It'll be restricting what they do, closing down facilities, upping taxes, a wider range of taxes, inflation and more borrowing etc. Locally it'll be the same but with increased parking charges, more restrictive and extensive parking areas etc, selling off publicly owned assets/spaces for housing development etc etc.

The bankers and the cronies will also do ok.

In other words more of the same and at the same time making false claims about the economy recovering and rebalancing the economy.

Edited by billybong

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