FreeTrader Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 Release of report and press conference at 10:30am.Streamed live here: http://streamstudio.world-television.com/CCUIv3/frameset.aspx?ticket=117-118-14748&target=en-default-&status=preview&browser=ns-0-0-0-14-0&stream=flash-video-400 There is likely to be considerable focus on the timing of interest rate rises in relation to wage growth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 Release of report and press conference at 10:30am. Streamed live here: http://streamstudio.world-television.com/CCUIv3/frameset.aspx?ticket=117-118-14748&target=en-default-&status=preview&browser=ns-0-0-0-14-0&stream=flash-video-400 There is likely to be considerable focus on the timing of interest rate rises in relation to wage growth. Wages falling, savings falling, house prices rising.... We are in for a real s**t storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crashmonitor Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 Special bonus, countries stocking up on oil in the wake of complete loss of trust in Russia and we have an oil lake and crashing prices...who would have thunk it...... http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/oilprices/11029810/Russia-vulnerable-as-oil-prices-hit-nine-month-low-on-IEA-glut-warnings.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeTrader Posted August 13, 2014 Author Share Posted August 13, 2014 BoE not highlighting the Inflation Report press conference live stream on its website. The link is there, but it's not given the usual prominence. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeTrader Posted August 13, 2014 Author Share Posted August 13, 2014 Link to full report: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/inflationreport/2014/ir14aug.pdf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeTrader Posted August 13, 2014 Author Share Posted August 13, 2014 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crashmonitor Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 (edited) Link to full report: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/inflationreport/2014/ir14aug.pdf Houses the most affordable ever then (green line) but linked to CURRENT repayments at near ZIRP. A bit misleading and has no bearing on the principal or the likely lifetime costs of the debt. Edited August 13, 2014 by crashmonitor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeTrader Posted August 13, 2014 Author Share Posted August 13, 2014 On page 34 of the IR there's a discussion of measures of wages. The Bank has finally acknowledged that compositional effects in the workforce can have a significant bearing on earnings growth. They also conclude that the Average Weekly Earnings series (AWE) is the most comprehensive indicator. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silver surfer Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 Oil prices falling and Saudi Arabia poised to increase production, which of course will drive down prices still further. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurzel Of Highbridge Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 Carney trying to wriggle out of being called clueless. Whoever was asking him that is obviously frequents this site. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeTrader Posted August 13, 2014 Author Share Posted August 13, 2014 2-year gilt yield has dropped by 4 bps since the start of the press conference. Market is seeing less chance of a rate rise this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeTrader Posted August 13, 2014 Author Share Posted August 13, 2014 Carney trying to wriggle out of being called clueless. Whoever was asking him that is obviously frequents this site. It was Larry Elliott, economics editor of the Guardian. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeTrader Posted August 13, 2014 Author Share Posted August 13, 2014 Noticeable that there were no long-term BoE staffers at the press conference. Just the two recently appointed Deputy Governors Ben Broadbent and Minouche Shafik. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurzel Of Highbridge Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 Carney would not answer the Daily Mail's simple question: Q) Does this mean that interest rate rises will be more likely this year or next? A) Committee will meat again in September. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 Carney would not answer the Daily Mail's simple question: Q) Does this mean that interest rate rises will be more likely this year or next? A) Committee will meat again in September. Telegraph online headline is that Carney said that IRs will not good up this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quicken Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 Household consumption has also remained strong, with consumer confidence high despite continued weakness in real wages. The ZIRP delusion. Globally, marked rises in financial market volatility and corrections in asset prices, perhaps associated with a normalisation in US monetary policy, pose significant downside risks. Yup. Get the popcorn in for that first US rate rise. Productivity growth has shown few signs yet of a recovery and is now projected to pick up more slowly than anticipated in May. Unexpected. Together with the legacy of the financial crisis and broader global forces, this meant that Bank Rate was expected to remain below average historical levels for some time to come. It remained the case, however, that the actual path for monetary policy, even after the first rise in Bank Rate, would remain dependent on economic conditions. In other words, the Committee’s guidance on the likely pace and extent of interest rate rises was an expectation, not a promise. The new forward guidance model. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 Telegraph online headline is that Carney said that IRs will not good up this year. Woohooo. The policy that has screwed us all will continue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ash4781 Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 Interesting CPI chart and note. The report is quite relaxed about CPI going lower in the short term and then picking up due to reduced slack and wage pressure. Now in the past would there not be more QE or are they happy to let CPI drop towards zero and wait for the wage inflation to feed through? Seems risky as extra income might just end up paying down debt and interest payments. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frederico Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 QE doesn't appear to achieve much Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
onlyme2 Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 So much verbal effluennt from these crooks in suits. Their who interest rate setting could be defined by one simple equation. Bankrupt of England base rate = FED base rate. Why are these crooks being paid a penny for their thoughts. Outright fraud. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 QE doesn't appear to achieve much Other than allowing the government to have a year of sub-prime lending at low interest rates, suppressing savings rates, so the bankers/rich can line their pockets at all our expense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Executive Sadman Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 Looking through the jobs classified today, one for head chef in a chain pub in a fenland town...£7ph. Doubtless there will be a queue of Lithuanians bidding even that down tomorrow morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 QE doesn't appear to achieve much Other than allowing the government to have a year of sub-prime lending at low interest rates, suppressing savings rates, so the bankers/rich can line their pockets at all our expense. Diminshing returns but that won't stop them trying again. Abenomics is next, QE on steroids. When that fails (see Japan) then we default/hyperinflate. By the time we get to that the world's least capable central banker will have disappeared, as I suspect will Cameron.and Osborne. Handsomely rewarded by the banking interests they fought tirelessly to uphold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeTrader Posted August 13, 2014 Author Share Posted August 13, 2014 The BoE has halved its 2014 forecast for wage growth to 1.25%, but there's still jam tomorrow: they project earnings growth of 3.25% in 2015 and 4% in 2016. Mortgage approvals for house purchase are expected to pick up to 75,000 per month by Q4 2014 (from the present 67,000), but house price growth will begin to slow and will be down to a mere 0.5% per month by Q1 2015 (positively sluggish - I hope George won't be upset). Judging by the market reaction to the report, it looks as though 2-year fixed mortgages will be getting even cheaper over the next few weeks. It's like Alice in Wonderland: "As long as you're getting poorer, we'll do our best to make houses cost more for you. Only when you're getting richer can we allow them to cost less." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bankstersparadise Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 Anyone who thought interest rates were going up in this country anytime soon (at the behest of policy-makers rather than the market) must be a real bozo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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