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Feels Weirdly Like 2007 Again


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It's different this time.

It feels a lot different too. In 2007 we had had a decade long tripling of prices, which had actually been almost entirely fitted into a four year slot of madness between 1999-2003 with Brown allowed out of his strait jacket during that time in the worst piece of economic management in the history of mankind. The boom was universal to all areas.

Not sure how that equates to 2014........we have had a 40% uplift in prices in London since 2007 , a return to peak in about half of the rest of the country, and the remaining parts of the country (a huge swathe from the North Midlands to Scotland) and incorporating huge cities like Leeds, Glasgow, Sheffield, Bradford, Newcastle well below 2007.

That doesn't feel much like 2007 to me.

Edited by crashmonitor
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It feels a lot different too. In 2007 we had had a decade long tripling of prices, which had actually been almost entirely fitted into a four year slot of madness between 1999-2003 with Brown allowed out of his strait jacket during that time in the worst piece of economic management in the history of mankind. The boom was universal to all areas.

Not sure how that equates to 2014........we have had a 40% uplift in prices in London since 2007 , a return to peak in about half of the rest of the country, and the remaining parts of the country (a huge swathe from the North Midlands to Scotland) and incorporating huge cities like Leeds, Glasgow, Sheffield, Bradford, Newcastle well below 2007.

That doesn't feel much like 2007 to me.

According to a land registry link on the MSE "Tipping Point" thread a basic flat in Gorgie Edinburgh (10 mins. to Princes St. by bus) was still 40k in 2002, and the real boost in prices (Liar Loans in action?) came between 2002 and 2004, much later than I remembered (although I lived in Morningside at the time and that maybe took off earlier, it seemed mad by 2002 to me) The interesting part is that the flat reached around 70k in 2004, and is for sale now at around 70k, so no HPI over a ten year period if you bought then and sold now. The main difference for me between 2007 and now is that they can`t slash rates, and the sales volumes are around half what they were then, so it is a bit like propping up a collapsing haystack, then running under it as it tilts over desperately trying to hold it up with both hands.

Edited by dances with sheeple
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Last year wasn't Max Kaiser predicting a crash for April of this year.

I'm not so sure that the Coalition Crazies haven't something else up their sleeve and won't pluck another rabbit out of the hat to prop up house prices to further devastate the UK economy but If the crash has started then he's only a few months out.

Edited by billybong
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Last year wasn't Max Kaiser predicting a crash for April of this year.

I'm not so sure that the Coalition Crazies haven't something else up their sleeve and won't pluck another rabbit out of the hat to prop up house prices to further devastate the UK economy but If the crash has started then he's only a few months out.

As much as you'd like to believe it's over and that we're finally going to get the (absolutely necessary) correction they managed to postpone in 2010, it's impossible to shake off the suspicion that Osborne's got a market defying trick or three still left to flourish this autumn.

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As much as you'd like to believe it's over and that we're finally going to get the (absolutely necessary) correction they managed to postpone in 2010, it's impossible to shake off the suspicion that Osborne's got a market defying trick or three still left to flourish this autumn.

Pension money. Think he may have the timed the launch of HTB2 and this wrongly. If prices start to collapse how many pension pots are going to find a willing home in a depreciating asset?

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Pension money. Think he may have the timed the launch of HTB2 and this wrongly. If prices start to collapse how many pension pots are going to find a willing home in a depreciating asset?

We have seen a bit of pre-empting in the past....HTB2 got to work even before it was on tap....spreading the fear of what it might do.

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As much as you'd like to believe it's over and that we're finally going to get the (absolutely necessary) correction they managed to postpone in 2010, it's impossible to shake off the suspicion that Osborne's got a market defying trick or three still left to flourish this autumn.

All the previous tricks never got sales volume back? IMO they are just holding the patient by the sleeve to break the fall as it goes down, no more than that really.

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HI Eric,

I keep coming back to the railway mania, the same sort of thing happened. Some of the politicians/businessmen were up to ther eyeballs in it and the first collapse say them bailed out. rather than leanring their lesson the speculation continues and the 2nd collapse followed a few years later. A couple of the polticians/businessmen were made scape goats and the banks regulated. Some of the banks closed the 2nd time and didn't re-open.

You can see history repeating itself.

Hi there CON;

Well --- I notice today there are media articles about how "50%" of "the poor's" income is going out on housing. I reckon it's FAR worse than that. And if you factor in council tax, very high utility bills, tv license etc etc. It takes it right up to as much as 75% or even more imho.....

All this has actually been going on for years and years as many of us know..... It is just SO pathetic that the "mainstream media" is only NOW just talking about it all vaguely....

All this hpi has been the Elephant Mammoth in the Room for years...... It is absolutely STRANGLING this country [and others] --- it is a 100% Massive Scandal.... It is affecting MILLIONS of peoples' lives.... We have been TOTALLY hijacked by the hpi scam - devised, organised and orchestrated by the Bankers -- it is just incredible how they have got away with it. Just incredible.

AND -- those DISGUSTING people at the CML [Council of Mortgage Lenders] keep trying to say we're at around 4 x income for prices -- but what they DON'T say is -- this is COMBINED incomes --- not single icomes. The fact is - as we all know -- ordinary decent people out there are peddling three/four times as fast to "buy" a rabbit box one third the size of houses of the past..... Paying what it took just one single earner to pay for a couple of decades ago and back..... Just look at how postmen, mechanics, oridnary people once were able to buy houses that only someone "earning" £100k or more can now afford...

This whole hpi scam is the Greatest Fraud in all history --- and LIAR LOANS were what really powered it to where it is now. I really hope those in their 20s and 30s start a revolution - and INSIST that the Bankers who did all this go to prison for 35 yrs + -- It was all done by fraud.

Edited by eric pebble
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All this hpi has been the Elephant Mammoth Paraceratherium in the Room for years...... It is absolutely STRANGLING this country [and others] --- it is a 100% Massive Scandal.... It is affecting MILLIONS of peoples' lives.... We have been TOTALLY hijacked by the hpi scam - devised, organised and orchestrated by the Bankers -- it is just incredible how they have got away with it. Just incredible.

elephantindricotheriumhuman.jpg

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  • 3 months later...

Hi all,

I got a message yesterday from a fellow forumer asking for an update. To that forum member, thanks for thinking of me for the contribution.

The relevant bit of my original post on this thread was...

In 2007, my business dropped off a cliff and it took everything I had to turn it around. Fast forward to 2014, I had to let 20% of the staff go because of a sudden and prolonged 30% drop in turnover.

After this point, turnover dropped again by another 15% from the original expected levels. The company was massively restructured, paid all the costs it incurred as part of that restructure and finally went back into, albeit, small profit.

Around three weeks ago, it suddenly turned upwards again. We're still trading 25% down from where we originally were but because of the much lower cost base, the profit levels are high. We have a chance of building a bank of cash back up in the next 6 months if this continues...but that's a big if.

This upturn has appeared out of nowhere.

Dead cat bounce or green shoots of recovery? Time will tell.

Anyone have any experiences to share?

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Business much better this year than this time last year.

In fact this time last year I was on the Canary Islands doing a 'Workaway' type trip as I'd had enough of sitting about here in the cold and the rain, so I pissed off travelling on the cheap.

Edited by chronyx
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