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Sheer Heart Attack

Feels Weirdly Like 2007 Again

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For the last few weeks, it's felt to me like 2007 again.

House prices are going up, stock markets at record highs, indebtedness through the roof.

Central banks claim to be tapering back on QE. There's talk of interest rates going up.

I remember feeling in 2007 like this was a bubble. I knew there'd be a crash but I didn't guess to the extent of it back then, to be honest.

And now, I have that very same feeling again.

In 2007, my business dropped off a cliff and it took everything I had to turn it around. Fast forward to 2014, I had to let 20% of the staff go because of a sudden and prolonged 30% drop in turnover.

Anybody feeling the same thing I am?

(Edited 7.47 - typo)

Edited by Sheer Heart Attack

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For the last few weeks, it's felt to me like 2007 again.

House prices are going up, stock markets at record highs, indebtedness through the roof.

Central banks claim to be tapering back on QE. There's talk of interest rates going up.

I remember feeling in 2007 like this was a bubble. I knew there'd be a crash but I didn't guess to the extent of it back then, to be honest.

And now, I have that very same feeling again.

In 2007, my business dropped off a cliff and it took everything I had to turn it around. Fast forward to 2014, I had to let 20% of the staff go because of a sudden and prolong 30% drop in turnover.

Anybody feeling the same thing I am?

It certainly does feel like it for me when I look at Rightmove. IN 2007 I sat shaking my head at the insane valuations/asking prices, something felt not quite right. Of course, it wasn't and in retrospect very few people managed to sell at 2007 bubble/bank destroying levels. It was like money/income meant nothing. We are back at that point and then some now.

I disagree with "House prices are going up"....not according to the land registry they aint, they dropped 0.0001% last month :P

But you are right, it feels like 2007 again, if you take a step back and look the costs of buying a house, it's madness.

London's obviously been in some sort of speculative bubble, prices are detached from any kind of reality, the only people who could possibly think buying a house in London are money launderers who are happy to take 50p in the pound to clean their cash and I would imagine there are plenty who would.

I've said a few times, it's high risk buying a house right now, no wage rises, potential for a massive recession, no job security, interest rates at all time lows. Maybe the government can just keep prices high forever and tax us to own one but for me if this is the case it's time to leave the country, in which case, owning a house is pointless.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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No ...2007 felt more certain ....don't feel we are there yet .

We'll never get back to the 2007 certainty, mainly because everyone knows what's happening really.

Some are in denial but we all know how bad those 2007 high house prices are and the fact Osborne etc have tried to push prices back up there shows how thorough independent from the electorate and how far separated from reality the politicians are.

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If we're in an echo of 2007 right now, then it would be about a year until we might see something like this again. I'd say that's about right, judging by the fact that in 2007, it was screamingly obvious to most of us that things were very, very wrong, but it took almost another year until it really started taking hold.

Of course, when things did start moving, it was quick - 4 months after this photo was taken, many of us here were stocking up on tin cans and sacks of rice. And if there's another year to go before TSHTF, then Georgie Boy might just pull it off...

caroline-flint-big_670610a.jpg

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BTW, I always thought it was suspicious that Caroline Flint let her notes be photographed - only a complete and utter idiot walks about with confidential notes on display, and I don't think she was that stupid.

Reading that bottom sentence in bold again, I'm pretty sure it was a deliberate ploy to get the message out to people and make out that there was nothing they could do about it, but that they were on people's side.

If we'd got a look at the flip side of that paper we'd probably have seen something about started in America, right thing to do and something about a bigoted woman.

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For the last few weeks, it's felt to me like 2007 again.

House prices are going up, stock markets at record highs, indebtedness through the roof.

Central banks claim to be tapering back on QE. There's talk of interest rates going up.

I remember feeling in 2007 like this was a bubble. I knew there'd be a crash but I didn't guess to the extent of it back then, to be honest.

And now, I have that very same feeling again.

In 2007, my business dropped off a cliff and it took everything I had to turn it around. Fast forward to 2014, I had to let 20% of the staff go because of a sudden and prolonged 30% drop in turnover.

Anybody feeling the same thing I am?

(Edited 7.47 - typo)

Yes: I know of several people running their own businesses who are having to cut back on staff massively -- and they are really struggling.

Also - a lot of talk of 2007 hapenning all over again...

I have to say --- I utterly despair of The Powers that Be - the Govt., the central banks, the top boards of the banks, etc etc. - the fact that they didn't do EVERYTHING they could to STOP the idiotic speculation and resultant La La Land "prices" in the property market ---- it beggars belief.

You would have thought they had lernt the lesons of history...... But no. No. No.

House prices going over a max of 3.5 x NON LIAR & REAL INCOMES is THE SIGN that things are wrong- and disaster IS going to be the result. WHEN will they learn that??

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BTW, I always thought it was suspicious that Caroline Flint let her notes be photographed - only a complete and utter idiot walks about with confidential notes on display, and I don't think she was that stupid.

Reading that bottom sentence in bold again, I'm pretty sure it was a deliberate ploy to get the message out to people and make out that there was nothing they could do about it, but that they were on people's side.

If we'd got a look at the flip side of that paper we'd probably have seen something about started in America, right thing to do and something about a bigoted woman.

The story then was that a photographer had opportunistically photographed the notes as she passed by but from that photo it seems clear that the notes were presented to be photographed.

Edited by billybong

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Yes: I know of several people running their own businesses who are having to cut back on staff massively -- and they are really struggling.

Also - a lot of talk of 2007 hapenning all over again...

I have to say --- I utterly despair of The Powers that Be - the Govt., the central banks, the top boards of the banks, etc etc. - the fact that they didn't do EVERYTHING they could to STOP the idiotic speculation and resultant La La Land "prices" in the property market ---- it beggars belief.

You would have thought they had lernt the lesons of history...... But no. No. No.

House prices going over a max of 3.5 x NON LIAR & REAL INCOMES is THE SIGN that things are wrong- and disaster IS going to be the result. WHEN will they learn that??

HI Eric,

I keep coming back to the railway mania, the same sort of thing happened. Some of the politicians/businessmen were up to ther eyeballs in it and the first collapse say them bailed out. rather than leanring their lesson the speculation continues and the 2nd collapse followed a few years later. A couple of the polticians/businessmen were made scape goats and the banks regulated. Some of the banks closed the 2nd time and didn't re-open.

You can see history repeating itself.

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The story then was that a photographer had opportunistically photgraphed the notes as she passed by but from that photo it seems clear that the notes were presented to be photographed.

You're not kidding. If a photographer had done that without permission they would be arrested on the spot.

I think the next page must say something like...we must save our banker friends at all cost otherwise we will be hanging from lamp posts. :lol:

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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The story then was that a photographer had opportunistically photgraphed the notes as she passed by but from that photo it seems clear that the notes were presented to be photographed.

I think that one was just rotated to make it easier to read. Nonetheless I'm pretty sure it was all set up.

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If this is 2007 all over again, it's 2007 plus guns and missiles. The political situation in many parts of the globe is febrile, if not down right perilous, from ISIS in Iraq to Poroshenko in the Ukraine, and the latter conflict could trigger World War 3.

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Fascinating and deep reflection on the panic of August, 2007 and the role played by the Eurodollar, the City of London and monetarism in the twin crises of 2007 and 2008.

http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/the-panic-of-august-2007-seven-years-after-the-money-markets-fractured-the-fed-still-adheres-to-an-outmoded-monetarist-paradigm/

The crisis period itself was really two, separated by a seeming calm engineered by the heaviest monetarism ever seen (to that point). And I should probably be more specific in that the “calm” period itself was broken into two distinct parts, with interbank unsecured markets looking more normal by January 2008, particularly as the FOMC initiated not one but two rate cuts that month. But such calm was just on the surface, as retreat in eurodollars was matched, if not surpassed, by repo strains.

The massive unwind in MBS markets meant a huge rush for collateral without any way to alleviate the shortage – traditional monetary measures through the Open Market Desk were wholly ineffective because they depended on the primary dealers to circulate any additional “flow”, which the primary dealers refused to do on an unsecured basis. Without widely available collateral, there was a dual-problem of flow in both unsecured eurodollars and repo. That was what caught Bear Stearns eventually (preceded in the weeks before by a few more hedge funds that should have been more of a warning about plumbing), which actually began the second phase of the interim “calm” period. In light of that event, the appearance of calm in LIBOR and elsewhere was highly misleading, indicating deeper problems.

ABOOK-Aug-2014-Two-Episodes.jpg

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in 2007, it was screamingly obvious to most of us that things were very, very wrong, but it took almost another year until it really started taking hold.

Which is why I've just signed a contract extension on our rental place, taking us to end of March 2015.... should tie in nicely.

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The plates just need to spin until the election.

That was the plan all along.........

It's a stupid plan cause no one is going to vote for them anyway.

Cameron had a real chance to solve some of the issues Labour caused but instead he's made them worse.

He showed some real promise but in the end he's been worse than Brown.

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If this is 2007 all over again, it's 2007 plus guns and missiles. The political situation in many parts of the globe is febrile, if not down right perilous, from ISIS in Iraq to Poroshenko in the Ukraine, and the latter conflict could trigger World War 3.

Are you one of these Putin apologist nutters? Have you been brainwashed by RT?

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Are you one of these Putin apologist nutters? Have you been brainwashed by RT?

So you are denying that there are not political crises in some politically sensitive places?

And what exactly has Putin got to apologise for?

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For the last few weeks, it's felt to me like 2007 again.

House prices are going up, stock markets at record highs, indebtedness through the roof.

Central banks claim to be tapering back on QE. There's talk of interest rates going up.

I remember feeling in 2007 like this was a bubble. I knew there'd be a crash but I didn't guess to the extent of it back then, to be honest.

And now, I have that very same feeling again.

In 2007, my business dropped off a cliff and it took everything I had to turn it around. Fast forward to 2014, I had to let 20% of the staff go because of a sudden and prolonged 30% drop in turnover.

Anybody feeling the same thing I am?

Pacific State - I remember your interesting business climate posts of 2008 onwards.

Then loads of stimulus/measures/Global QE trillions, FLS, 0.5% came, and as I remember, business for you picked up very nicely again.

Yes the same; let them choke on their forever hpi/QE/mad valuations, from big hpc.

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Are you one of these Putin apologist nutters? Have you been brainwashed by RT?

Are you one of these EU/US apologist nutters? Have you been brainwashed by the BBC (etc etc)?

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So you are denying that there are not political crises in some politically sensitive places?

And what exactly has Putin got to apologise for?

Well, for starters, being instrumental in bringing about the conditions in Syria to allow the germination of the Islamic State. If your memory goes back that far you will recall that the original 'Arab Spring' protestors massacred by Putin's poodle, Assad were unarmed moderates.

Lately his Ukraine conspiracy theories about fighter jets and Ukrainian BUK missiles have been embarrassing for the Russian people.

Are you one of these EU/US apologist nutters? Have you been brainwashed by the BBC (etc etc)?

No. In fact I believe the EU/US are even more dangerous than Putin. At least Putin is clever and shrewed. EU/US are merely stupid and incompetent.

I don't have a TV or Radio.

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It's a stupid plan cause no one is going to vote for them anyway.

Cameron had a real chance to solve some of the issues Labour caused but instead he's made them worse.

He showed some real promise but in the end he's been worse than Brown.

Heard a woman openly ranting about immigrants on an Edinburgh bus the other day, not as bad as "Train Woman", but the Go Home Not Welcome, Taking our Jobs sentiment was very clear. Sometimes when I step out of the flat now I don`t know what country I`m in. If they don`t get a handle on the continual immigration of cheap labour there is going to be trouble.

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