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Mrs Bear

'surge In Sellers Could Halt The Housing Boom' - Today's Times

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Nothing new, but encouraging to see a big- headline article in the Times.

'A survey, due to be published by RICS this week, is expected to show that the number of houses on the market now exceeds the number of buyers - a strong indication that a drop in house prices will follow.'

Of course there are the usual quotes from the biggest VIs such as Savills and Hamptons, giving evidence of 'a strong market' etc., - God knows why these two are so often quoted when they mostly deal in very expensive properties.

Still, all grist to the 'tide of sentiment' mill.

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The Mail and the Times in the space of a few days. All we need now is the Express to follow suit and I'll know for sure that I've entered some sort of parallel universe where high house prices are considered to be a bad thing.

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Good start to a Monday morning.

Once those savvy investors realise prices are falling they will be trying to cash in on all those properties they bought for cash. Cash will be king once again, then gold, then stocks, then property etc..

The money-go-round never stops or sleeps.

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The Times is read by all the millions of soap opera lovers.

What we need is an inside contact in eastenders, get it written into the script and it will soon become reality as people reenact the plot.

On a serious note, I hold TV responsible for much of todays social ills.

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What we need is an inside contact in eastenders, get it written into the script and it will soon become reality as people reenact the plot.

On a serious note, I hold TV responsible for much of todays social ills.

TV is just opiate for the masses. It's a great, misused, tool though.

It does appear that the message about the crash is becoming more visible in the mainstream media.

Edited by Mr 0.01%

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It backs up what I am seeing in Swansea - vast numbrr of properties for sale.

However, a few firms are still ramping like feck to get the stuff on their books. I can think of 2 or 3 EAs who are IMPO the main reason for the sky high asking prices.

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The Times is read by all the millions of soap opera lovers.

?

I read it and I haven't watched any soaps for years. Not since kids were living at home, now I come to think of it, and they've been gone a long time now.

I wouldn't have thought the Times your average soap addict's paper of choice, TBH.

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?

I read it and I haven't watched any soaps for years. Not since kids were living at home, now I come to think of it, and they've been gone a long time now.

I wouldn't have thought the Times your average soap addict's paper of choice, TBH.

I left a /sarcasm tag off the end of my post.

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I left a /sarcasm tag off the end of my post.

With a Times circulation closer to a third of a million than a half and an Internet pay wall I didn't think you needed to.

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I left a /sarcasm tag off the end of my post.

oops. Brain not quite in gear yet - must say I had thought it an odd comment from one so eminently wise and brainy as TMT.

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Have you ever thought that newspapers are simply manipulation of the masses (including the forum members) by the elite? Human beings love to be biased its in our DNA. If something agrees with you it shows your right, if it doesn't it shows how crazy the world is - sound familiar? Or perhaps when you bet and win you had the edge; when you lose you were...unlucky?

THe information is the press on falling house prices is clearly following an agenda. Not sure if its there to cool the house market before the election or stimulate demand for building more homes; or simply to suggest that the opinion makers have had their fill in housing and a crash would be detrimental to their interests. I don't know the reason, but don't you ever wonder how all the newspapers come out with a similar set of stories all at the same time. They all make the same interpretation of the facts to portray a set narrative...

The only way to beat the game is to stop playing. Unfortunately, that makes you a pariah in society; especially to women who feel the world is innately fair for some reason (not a misogynist comment just a generalisation from my experience, perhaps they have it right; we should control our controllables everything else is pointless to think about). Or perhaps every man grows up with some sort of ambition to "take over the world" and women, on the whole, don't.

Anyway, whatever the reason for this new line from the MSM, it will always end up with something that enables asset transfer to the wealthy at the expense of liabilities for the government and the masses. Short term profit without long term consequences is what capitalism is built for...its given us great improvements but also created problems that can't really be solved in the current model

Edited by katchytitle

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oops. Brain not quite in gear yet - must say I had thought it an odd comment from one so eminently wise and brainy as TMT.

Let's wait and see how the tabloid media and BBC twist the RICS report later this week.

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BOOM is the headline.

not frothy, not rising or soaring, but there was a BOOM.

and what follows a BOOM as sure as night follows day?

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BOOM is the headline.

not frothy, not rising or soaring, but there was a BOOM.

and what follows a BOOM as sure as night follows day?

Printing money and higher taxes to make sure there is another boom?

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'A survey, due to be published by RICS this week, is expected to show that the number of houses on the market now exceeds the number of buyers - a strong indication that a drop in house prices will follow.'

Only if the government and the banks don't come up with another of their crazy schemes to keep throwing other people's money or freshly printed money at it etc.

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and what follows a BOOM as sure as night follows day?

I know what Basil Brush would say

MV5BMTc4MzcwNDY2OV5BMl5BanBnXkFtZTcwNDA2

Mind Basil has been quiet since Yewtree

Edited by WSG

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BOOM is the headline.

not frothy, not rising or soaring, but there was a BOOM.

and what follows a BOOM as sure as night follows day?

More silly number billions in stimulus, and help-to-overpay schemes?

I'm not getting carried away, for there's not been a surge of owners to market, and even a pickup in owners to market, some have been tempted out just be prospect of getting silly prices. We need a trigger where some owners feel the need that they must sell, and it's the happy buyer (enemy) who needs to have gone... those crazy buyers... need them to have fallen away (maybe that's the main thing RICs is on about rather than homes on market).... unable to, unwilling to meet anywhere near asking price, all gone on strike.

Also:

National Inventory Of Homes For Sale Hits All-Time Low

Started by rantnrave, Dec 13 2013 12:34 PM

The national inventory has hit an all-time low, property search engine Home has reported.

It says the overall volume of property for sale is now 38% lower than six years ago in December 2007.

It says the “supply crisis” is frustrating in the hottest regional markets which show no sign of rebalancing.

According to Home, which takes property listings from virtually every single estate agency website and portal in the country, there are 481,000 properties currently for sale. In late 2007, there were 771,000.

in full: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/195356-national-inventory-of-homes-for-sale-hits-all-time-low/

I've never found a good source for current homes on the market (supply is pretty dry in my areas..just a trickle on with more selling), but same source above - as I remember it they said it was updated every 24 hours last time I checked prior to today (below): http://www.home.co.uk/search/property.htm

The Home.co.uk Property Search Index currently lists 571,735 flats and houses for sale across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, found on 13,517,959 property web pages.

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CML stats this morning. FTBs are just about carrying the market (3.47x joint £37,000), presumably with the 20% HtB discount. Home movers, remortgagers and BTL suckers all pretty flat.

http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/3964

Quarterly highlights:

  • In the second quarter as a whole, there were 79,900 first-time buyer loans - 17% up on the previous quarter, and 24% up on Q2 2013. In the second quarter as a whole, first-time buyers borrowed £11.5 billion - up 12% on the previous quarter and 34% on Q2 2013.
  • At 91,000 loans, there were 16% more home-mover loans in the second quarter than the first, and 15% more than in Q2 2014. On a quarterly basis, the value of home-mover lending was £11.3 billion, up 19% on the first quarter and 27% up on the second quarter 2013.
  • In the quarter, there were fewer remortgages than in either the previous quarter or Q2 2014. By value, remortgaging was 2% down on the first quarter but 5% up on Q2 2013.
  • The value of buy-to-let lending was 3% up on the first quarter and 31% up on Q2 2013. The number of buy-to-let loans was 1% higher than the first quarter, and 22% up on Q2 2014.

11.08.14-house-purchase-graph.png

11.08.14-first-time-buyers-graph.png

11.08.14-home-movers-graph.png

11.08.14-remortgage-graph.png

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Have you ever thought that newspapers are simply manipulation of the masses (including the forum members) by the elite? Human beings love to be biased its in our DNA. If something agrees with you it shows your right, if it doesn't it shows how crazy the world is - sound familiar? Or perhaps when you bet and win you had the edge; when you lose you were...unlucky?

THe information is the press on falling house prices is clearly following an agenda. Not sure if its there to cool the house market before the election or stimulate demand for building more homes; or simply to suggest that the opinion makers have had their fill in housing and a crash would be detrimental to their interests. I don't know the reason, but don't you ever wonder how all the newspapers come out with a similar set of stories all at the same time. They all make the same interpretation of the facts to portray a set narrative...

The only way to beat the game is to stop playing. Unfortunately, that makes you a pariah in society; especially to women who feel the world is innately fair for some reason (not a misogynist comment just a generalisation from my experience, perhaps they have it right; we should control our controllables everything else is pointless to think about). Or perhaps every man grows up with some sort of ambition to "take over the world" and women, on the whole, don't.

Anyway, whatever the reason for this new line from the MSM, it will always end up with something that enables asset transfer to the wealthy at the expense of liabilities for the government and the masses. Short term profit without long term consequences is what capitalism is built for...its given us great improvements but also created problems that can't really be solved in the current model

As far as I can see, the article simply reported what I am seeing, albeit with spin from Messrs VI Savills and Hamptons. There HAS been a rush of new properties on the market I check regularly (in London), with more and bigger reductions than usual, and slightly lower (or less crazy) initial asking prices. And I am not the only one on here to see similar.

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What they mean is there are not enough buyers willing to pay these ridiculous prices.

There must be millions of people willing to buy at prices that relate to wages.

Yes. So if the banks want to lend big time again they need a crash? It will be smaller loans at higher interest rates IMO.

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As far as I can see, the article simply reported what I am seeing, albeit with spin from Messrs VI Savills and Hamptons. There HAS been a rush of new properties on the market I check regularly (in London), with more and bigger reductions than usual, and slightly lower (or less crazy) initial asking prices. And I am not the only one on here to see similar.

House prices can fall fast, and hard, on very little volume of transactions....

Past few years market has shot upwards on lower transaction numbers, smaller mortgae loans than 2007, but because the buyers and sellers agreeing to transact at much higher prices.

Home Loans In 2013 Half Their 2007 Peak, Says Cml

January 2014

The amount of money borrowed by home-owners last year was less than half that seen at the peak of the housing boom in 2007, mortgage lenders say.

Market fell in 2008 on limited transactions; tight lending, higher rates, sentiment.

We don't need loads of supply on the market (although it would be nice). We just need sellers and buyers proceeding with transactions at lower prices. That brings down values for all the other owners. Owners can't really claim their home is worth £650K, because that's what a buyer paid in London in early 2014 for almost identical home in same postcode, when you find latest transaction shows one or two similar homes in same postcode sold for £450K-£500K in Sept 2014.

For prices of assets to fall, it takes only one seller and one buyer who agree that the former value of an asset was too high. If a million other people own it, then their net worth goes down even though they did nothing. Two investors made it happen by transacting, and the rest of the investors made it happen by choosing not to disagree with their price. Financial values can disappear through a decrease in prices for any type of investment asset, including bonds, stocks and land.

..registers a new value on the first trade, which can be conducted by as few as two people. It did not take everyone’s action to make it happen, just most people’s inaction on the other side. When the point of agreement changed, so did the value. Poof! Gone in a flash of aggregated neurons.

Edited by Venger

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