Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Mr 0.01%

Daily Mail: Property Price Crash Could Happen Within Months

Recommended Posts

from the Daily Mail

Property price crash could happen within months as sellers finally outstrip buyers (but they'll continue to rise for another year)
  • House prices have soared in London and across Britain over the past year
  • Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors says houses now exceed buyers
  • Prices likely to rise for 12 months but then fall, bringing surge to an end
Britain's house-price boom threatens to turn into a property crash within months, warn industry experts, as a key survery is set to reveal there are now more sellers that buyers.

What I don't understand is that once buyers understand that a fall is(/may be) coming, why would they continue to pay over the odds? Why not just wait?

"Yes EA - here's an extra 20k that I won't need to pay in 6 months." :)

Last gasp buyers hoping to invest and then sell on before a fall? End of Russian/Chinese money so TPTB trying to get naive UK buyers to overstretch themselves? Or a thinly veiled call for the government to offer more support to the housing market - seen as DM is one of the most pro-HPI rags going....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Right now is an time of uncertainty. If you raise the buyer / seller ratio change to any bulls, they will reply that its only a month and not yet a trend, its always more slow this time of the year.

There is also the element of sales taking around two months to close as well, which muddys the waters around the current data.

November / December will be the time when the data is there for undeniably showing a trend.

Right now i suspect buyers are experiencing a change of percerption. They are going from "I have to buy now, or i may never have another chance" to "this is crazy. Maybe things might just be turning and i might regret buying now". Add to this you have the psychology of buyers changing "it might be peak prices, i may not get another chance to sell this high".

Its certainly moment where we balance on the head of a pin.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

When you see headlines like this...its already crashed

Yes, that's my feeling too. Quick everyone! Pile in so we can wring every last bit of money out of you, even if prices only fall 10%.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The problems is that there are no willing and able buyers left. Chinaman has left the building, Russia has left the building and young brits (except a few high earners) are with priced out or have already joined the ponzi.

Notioce how few STR's there are left around here compared to 2007/8, that should give you a good idea how few buyers there are left in the market.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

When you see headlines like this...its already crashed

Like it had already crashed when headlines like this became widespread in 2004? Particularly summer/autumn 2004?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

When you see headlines like this...its already crashed

If it has crashed then why am i still priced out of buying a 3 bed detached house for 180K. It should cost 100-120K in a crash, im currently looking at around 225K

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If it has crashed then why am i still priced out of buying a 3 bed detached house for 180K. It should cost 100-120K in a crash, im currently looking at around 225K

Not crashed but too late for sellers to get out at peak prices.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Like it had already crashed when headlines like this became widespread in 2004? Particularly summer/autumn 2004?

About the time banks went mad lending 120% to anyone who could fog a mirror?

That's not happening this time, as "it's different this time",

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Dracula sorry Dacre knows his punters well (probably keeps a good eye on the letters the DM is sent) and is happy to cultivate and stoke the fears of the DM readership. He's also happy to give voice to their concerns where it fits in with his goals.

It's hard to know what he's upto here, he could be:

1 - Stoking fear in order to expand the HTB scheme in some way

2 - He's seen the writing on the walls re HPC and wants to be able to say we warned you first (softening people up for the inevitable)

3 - Using it as a rallying call for the NIMBYs, if prices are crashing there's no need to build houses

4 - Generating click-bait

Will be worth keeping an eye on the DM to see what line they're following.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
With a rise in interest rates expected before the end of the year, some have argued now is a bad time to be buying property, and that once the cost of mortgages goes up, prices will have to come down.

The last time RICS published its figures, buyers were still outnumbering available stock, indicating that house prices across the country would continue to grow.

But the number has been falling sharply in recent months, prompting speculation that it could head into negative territory when RICS releases figures for July on Thursday.

The regional figures for London indicate that the number of new sellers already hugely outnumbers new buyers.

Two sides to the lending equation. Print as much money as you want, unless you gift it to people, real world restraints going to stop some people buying, or lenders put up barriers to borrowing precious capital they need to pass stress tests.

HPC from buyers falling away. That would be most excellent. Let's see how some pent-up sellers react, and whether some will begin to sell for what neighbouring owners "know what it's worth" causing all the other houses to fall in value.

Pent Up Housing Demand - Gradually Exhausting Itself

Buyers are my enemy.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=197307&page=1

Great time to be a renter then.

Why buy when some other idiots is funding your rent and allowing you to save/invest faster/better.

Buying is dead money and heavy weight round many peoples necks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest

It's the Mail.... I'll believe it when I see it.

I think the fact such a bullish paper as the DM is talking about crashes is a very good sign of things to come, or at least that sentiment has changed. The whole damn market is based on sentiment.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's the Mail. Tomorrow's headline is just as likely to be house prices to boom.

That is the nature of the 'game' confuse the people so that they no longer know if they are coming or going.........the same thing as talking about what you intend to do hopefully thinking the people will think, that is what they have done.....words are worthless...actions/evidence speak louder than hot air and promises. ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've been like that since 2003 (no joke)

:(:(

That's just not true.

2004/2005. Should have been the natural top but they stoked the bubble with lower rates, 120% mortgages and subprime lending

2006 war a crazy.

2007 the financial system collapsed as did house prices and most importantly sales volumes that have NEVER recovered.

2008. Rock bottom interest rates

2008 tm 2011. money printing and prices declining.

2012 to 20131 HTB and FLS.

2013 to 2014 return to normal. Heralded by the main stream media.

Nothing since 2004 has been normal and a correction is unavoidable.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2015 Conservative government introduce BOE backed 30 year mortgages with rates as low as 2%?

Nah, we pay you to buy borrow ...we beg you....please you know you want to. ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   224 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.