Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
Jason

I'm Calling The Top!

Recommended Posts

Yup, I'm sticking my head out to say the 9th August 2014 is the top of the market. This is exactly 7 years from the last crash in 2007 when the credit markets froze!

Ok, like in 2007 it took over a year until it was plain as day that the market was falling.. so I expect the same this time. Maybe they will hold out until the next election - just?

Oh, and maybe there is something in that 7 year cycle!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yup, I'm sticking my head out to say the 9th August 2014 is the top of the market. This is exactly 7 years from the last crash in 2007 when the credit markets froze!

Ok, like in 2007 it took over a year until it was plain as day that the market was falling.. so I expect the same this time. Maybe they will hold out until the next election - just?

Oh, and maybe there is something in that 7 year cycle!

I think the top may have been a few months back, but good to see someone else getting the feeling that this could be 'it'.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The top was clearly several months ago .... that was when I bought and you will look back in the years to come as see that this single purchase was the trigger that started the collapse.

All the bears are in now, even Mark Wadsworth. The cash on the sidelines has drived up.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My police officer cousin has just splashed out on a 750k house in Cheshire so everyone who is patting him on the back for being a canny buyer will probably commiserate wholeheartedly when he loses a packet, including the family money he drained

Feels very toppy for that anecdotal reason

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Careful. Apostle of the hard left George Osborne can always find a fresh excuse - Russia, the Middle East etc - to lard out billions more in state hand-outs and house price subsidies before the GE.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My police officer cousin has just splashed out on a 750k house in Cheshire so everyone who is patting him on the back for being a canny buyer will probably commiserate wholeheartedly when he loses a packet, including the family money he drained

Feels very toppy for that anecdotal reason

Rank?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Oh, and maybe there is something in that 7 year cycle!

Well, according to the author of "The Harbinger", there IS a 7 year cycle that has been playing out since September 2001 when the stock market collapsed by a large amount, and then in September 2008, collapsing by 777 points on the same date in the Hebrew calendar, Elul 29. Lots of other strange "coincidences" too... plenty of Youtube videos about it.

I guess we'll see if it's coincidence or not when the next Elul 29 comes around, on September 13, 2015. :D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You probably are right in that the tipping point was a few months back with MMR, however I am referring to house prices - the peak with Halifax was August 2007 (and they have been rising in the indexes to date), and I am expecting a similar peak now.

Ok, I will have to wait until early next month to see if it is higher than July's data...

If I'm wrong, well - I'm not advising anyone, and I'm not sticking my head in the media telling people not to buy.. like the VIs tell you to buy. Oh, and I'll refer to Nationwide's index which peaked in Oct 2007 :lol:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not so sure. There is more juice to squeeze in all forms. A lot of which won't be considered by the average 'i want to get a foot on the property ladder types'. Public sector pay rise next year...keep all happy. Pound devaluing. Rethinking the new mortgage rules. Shifting stamp duty thresholds. Making sure too many properties are NOT built, starting a war to keep the economy up...so on. Then of course everyone ends up needing to put down roots due to schooling, rental uncertainties etc.

Forces against a crash are strong...very strong. Even if there is a crash in real terms...people might not notice it! Like salaries have crashed over the last seven years

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not so sure. There is more juice to squeeze in all forms. A lot of which won't be considered by the average 'i want to get a foot on the property ladder types'. Public sector pay rise next year...keep all happy. Pound devaluing. Rethinking the new mortgage rules. Shifting stamp duty thresholds. Making sure too many properties are NOT built, starting a war to keep the economy up...so on. Then of course everyone ends up needing to put down roots due to schooling, rental uncertainties etc.

Forces against a crash are strong...very strong. Even if there is a crash in real terms...people might not notice it! Like salaries have crashed over the last seven years

Forces for a crash are stronger...the stupid prices.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not so sure. There is more juice to squeeze in all forms. A lot of which won't be considered by the average 'i want to get a foot on the property ladder types'. Public sector pay rise next year...keep all happy. Pound devaluing. Rethinking the new mortgage rules. Shifting stamp duty thresholds. Making sure too many properties are NOT built, starting a war to keep the economy up...so on. Then of course everyone ends up needing to put down roots due to schooling, rental uncertainties etc.

Forces against a crash are strong...very strong. Even if there is a crash in real terms...people might not notice it! Like salaries have crashed over the last seven years

Wtf

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wtf

He is correct imho, whilst interest rates are very low mortgage repayments are affordable thus no significant crash where property prices become affordable.

The last 7 years shows this is the case.

Best we can hope for is a Labour victory is 2015 and the markets go against them this forcing interest rates to rise significantly.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/tax/11023521/Teachers-police-officers-and-nurses-dragged-into-40p-rate.html#comment-1535572432

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There's a little too much in the media about an impending crash for my liking....Becomes a counter-indicator!? Crashes come without fanfare or warning.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   205 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.