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"uk Homeowners Start To Panic Sell In The Face Of House Price Uncertainty" - Telegraph

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/constructionandproperty/11015301/UK-homeowners-start-to-panic-sell-in-the-face-of-house-price-uncertainty.html

Excerpt:

The latest Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker indicates that sentiment towards selling is rising as fears grow that property values could reverse - while new buyer demand is dropping.

Over half of those (57pc) surveyed by the lender believe they should sell within the next year to capitalise on price, compared to 32pc. This is the highest score of this measure since the survey's inception.

"In London, the trend of selling up from more central zones to get better value and more space in suburban or commuterbelt locations will also continue. Many recognise the significant arbitrage opportunity that now exists and want to maximise this opportunity to cash in," said Adam Challis, head of residential research at property group JLL.

"However, some have been trapped in low or negative equity scenarios since 2009 and are only just seeing the light at the end of the tunnel that will enable them to move on."

Only last week, data from Hometrack showed that house prices in Britain have stalled as the number of new buyers plummeted in July and consumer sentiment shifted from over-zealous to cautious.

The rate of house price growth fell to its slowest rate in 18 months - according to a leading survey of estate agents.

This drop in the growth of property values is a result interest fears, new, tighter mortgage rules and aggressive rhetoric from the Bank of England that a "hot" UK housing market, in the south east, is the biggest threat to the economic recovery.

"The Halifax data adds to the current uncertainty over the true state of the housing market," said Howard Archer, chief economist at IHS Global Insight.

"Furthermore, an appreciable rise in mortgage approvals reported by the Bank of England in June fuels uncertainty as to whether the recent loss of momentum in housing market activity is likely to be lasting or just a temporary development related to changing mortgage regulations."

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One of the comments


"If they sell, where are they going to live?"




Errrrr....where will their tenants live is more to the point.



It seems the sheeple are being slowly told what is happening.


Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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Some good comments:

Gillian23 David Hollins MBA an hour ago

The daft housing shortage argument went away for a while after the last crash but it is in full flood again now. These people refuse to acknowledge that demand a person cannot afford to fund is not demand at all, not in a market. I might have a burning demand (sic) for gold but with no bloody money to buy the stuff my private demand is like a child crying for christmas.

Prices should have fallen to meet up with the real demand out there such as it was/is, and the reason they did not is not because of intrinsic demand at the higher price but because prices have been propped up by various unconscionable devices.

Why do these people think the government stepped in with all its schemes? Why would it have needed to if there was so much demand (sic) out there?

But the market will always win out in the end and we will have the mother of all crashes. Then we will see some real demand come back in.

    observer20 Gillian23 13 minutes ago

    Excellent post Gillian.

    If, or more likely when, house prices go south, equities go south, your pension goes south and the banks go bust...again...only this time they take depositor money to keep the ball rolling along.

    We'll be protected by the FSCS though of course..except that the FSCS is a complete illusion, it has no fund.. only debts of something around 19bn from the previous minnows that went under. If a member goes down it borrows money from the Treasury and BoE and the remaining members have to repay the loan over the term ...so don't expect that to work out too well when a major bank goes down with the massive rolling snowball effect that will have.

    So the government will have to step in..again..sterling will plummet, inflation will rocket and we'll all get hit ten ways from Sunday.

    That is what's coming unless someone has invented a way in our small island to keep grossly over-valued asset classes inflated forever...and I really don't think they have.

    But it won't stop the asset bubble blowing, next generation disenfranchising artificial low-rate addicts crying 'We has to have our cheap money Precious.. we needs it, we do'

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People panic sell into lows, not highs.

Smart money distributes into highs, not lows.

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If people weren't panicking before ( which looking at the London crash thread looks like they were )....then they certainly will be now.

I'd like to think this is a good driver of sentiment, event though it is completely sensationalist. But a suggestion in the comments that it is a mouthpiece article for the banks who are trying to talk down the market so that the BoE don't do anything too rash. Or am I too cynical of "journalism" these days?

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Some good comments:

Gillian23 David Hollins MBA an hour ago

The daft housing shortage argument went away for a while after the last crash but it is in full flood again now. These people refuse to acknowledge that demand a person cannot afford to fund is not demand at all, not in a market.

Hah; I was going to quote the demand part of that comment too. It seems to have been forgotten even by many on hpc, who keep going on about population growth, implying forever hpi.

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I wouldn't be surprised of 50% of the demand we see is from speculators in one form or another, London I would think it's around 90%.

It maybe even higher than 90% speculation in London since only a very small percentage of people in the UK would be able to buy any of this property with a regular job and mortgage 5%?

Edited by Wurzel Of Highbridge

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People panic sell into lows, not highs.

Smart money distributes into highs, not lows.

Yes, but when they begin to 'distribute' to buyers at lower prices than houses in the area had been selling for in preceeding months/years, it brings down house values for all the other owners.

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I wouldn't be surprised of 50% of the demand we see is from speculators in one form or another, London I would think it's around 90%.

It maybe even higher than 90% speculation in London since only a very small percentage of people in the UK would be able to buy any of this property with a regular job and mortgage 5%?

I'm with you on that.

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People panic sell into lows, not highs.

Smart money distributes into highs, not lows.

Who cares whether or not the journo is right to call it panic selling. If they are willing put the words 'panic selling' on the front page of the Telegraph website, I can forgive virtually anything. Better than Cowie's ramping.

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Who cares whether or not the journo is right to call it panic selling. If they are willing put the words 'panic selling' on the front page of the Telegraph website, I can forgive virtually anything. Better than Cowie's ramping.

I wonder if Mr. Cowie is panicking. I expected to see another...he was right, we were wrong, don't panic the government will save us articles soon :lol:

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Who cares whether or not the journo is right to call it panic selling. If they are willing put the words 'panic selling' on the front page of the Telegraph website, I can forgive virtually anything. Better than Cowie's ramping.

It's obviously wrong, that's why.

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It's obviously wrong, that's why.

Right or wrong doesn't matter.

The BoE have their forward guidance...I have mine:

fox_share_graph.jpg

Foxtons share price

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Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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It's obviously wrong, that's why.

Is it? Your contention would appear to be that in order of it to be panic selling you have to be at lows. And therefore as we are not at lows, it is not panic selling. However you also posit that selling at highs is done by smart money. But that can't apply to UK residential property because anyone holding property from about 2003 onwards is playing such a dangerous 'greater fool' seeking trade that they'd have to be considered dumb money, given the tendency of liquidity to disappear from real estate markets as soon as you really need it. Hence the rule of thumb you offer can't be applied here; as there is no smart money, it cannot be smart money selling into the high. Now, there is dumb money and even dumber money. If you want to call the least dumb money 'smart money' and call the fact that they've panicked first 'distribut[ing] into highs', that's your taste, but I'm not so sure that the headline is obviously wrong.

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Is it? Your contention would appear to be that in order of it to be panic selling you have to be at lows. And therefore as we are not at lows, it is not panic selling. However you also posit that selling at highs is done by smart money. But that can't apply to UK residential property because anyone holding property from about 2003 onwards is playing such a dangerous 'greater fool' seeking trade that they'd have to be considered dumb money, given the tendency of liquidity to disappear from real estate markets as soon as you really need it. Hence the rule of thumb you offer can't be applied here; as there is no smart money, it cannot be smart money selling into the high. Now, there is dumb money and even dumber money. If you want to call the least dumb money 'smart money' and call the fact that they've panicked first 'distribut[ing] into highs', that's your taste, but I'm not so sure that the headline is obviously wrong.

No matter what you say, he's not selling his Smiths records.

C'mon, in a panic, where's the volume? Although, right or wrong, it definitely plants the seed.

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Is it? Your contention would appear to be that in order of it to be panic selling you have to be at lows. And therefore as we are not at lows, it is not panic selling. However you also posit that selling at highs is done by smart money. But that can't apply to UK residential property because anyone holding property from about 2003 onwards is playing such a dangerous 'greater fool' seeking trade that they'd have to be considered dumb money, given the tendency of liquidity to disappear from real estate markets as soon as you really need it. Hence the rule of thumb you offer can't be applied here; as there is no smart money, it cannot be smart money selling into the high. Now, there is dumb money and even dumber money. If you want to call the least dumb money 'smart money' and call the fact that they've panicked first 'distribut[ing] into highs', that's your taste, but I'm not so sure that the headline is obviously wrong.

Wouldn't panic selling create the low.

Do you think the word has got out that we've not actually returned to normal.

Now, hands up who sold thier house recently ?

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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It's obviously wrong, that's why.

Quite right

Anyone who wants to see the market going higher (not me) should be delighted at these headlines

This sort of thing is necessary to keep a bull market going, people have to be afraid to invest and leave some money on the table for later on to keep driving it higher

Much like the 5+ year equities bull market, constantly crashing into new all time highs

Have a look at Nadeem Walayat

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The latest Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker indicates that sentiment towards selling is rising as fears grow that property values could reverse - while new buyer demand is dropping.

Over half of those (57pc) surveyed by the lender believe they should sell within the next year to capitalise on price, compared to 32pc. This is the highest score of this measure since the survey's inception.

Thats the meat of it, the headline is a little on the link-baity side.

Talk of base rate rises starting in the short term with MMR and the cooling as identified in the prime london thread all point the same way.

I expect RK to be ever more bizarre as the situation unfolds.

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Is it? Your contention would appear to be that in order of it to be panic selling you have to be at lows. And therefore as we are not at lows, it is not panic selling. However you also posit that selling at highs is done by smart money. But that can't apply to UK residential property because anyone holding property from about 2003 onwards is playing such a dangerous 'greater fool' seeking trade that they'd have to be considered dumb money, given the tendency of liquidity to disappear from real estate markets as soon as you really need it. Hence the rule of thumb you offer can't be applied here; as there is no smart money, it cannot be smart money selling into the high. Now, there is dumb money and even dumber money. If you want to call the least dumb money 'smart money' and call the fact that they've panicked first 'distribut[ing] into highs', that's your taste, but I'm not so sure that the headline is obviously wrong.

Captain Jack Sparrow: You lied to me by telling me the truth?

Unless they were smart enough to feel fully relaxed in knowing Gov 'wouldn't let it happen' (quite a common position from way back), that reflation measures would be taken to protect the HPI, QE, Global QE, rates floored, FLS, HTB, and pavement licking excuses from non-owners in support of younger/middle-age homeowners who outbid them.

Considering they're the ones holding assets inflated to silly high prices, and IT has never happened, they don't look too dumb to me. So I accept the smart money selling position. I wanted to pull up a thread "They can't give them away" but it's been removed... about a few more houses for sale at the higher end of London prime.

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Considering they're the ones holding assets inflated to silly high prices, and IT has never happened, they don't look too dumb to me.

If dumb is the new smart we're in a lot of trouble.

Where does it end? When people start walking off the cliffs at dover with expectation that they will float in the air?

None of them predicted any of this, there was no thought, there is dumb luck. And it ain't over yet. If there were any smart people there they've sold by now… look whats coming.

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Thats the meat of it, the headline is a little on the link-baity side.

...

Absolutely. There's clearly a new sub-editor over there, because this is getting to be a trend over at Torygraph HQ - articles with quite bearish headlines and very little meat on the bone. I take the point that (as ever) there is a ramping interpretation; if you'd have to be panicking to sell at these prices then these prices must be low, so by now and don't miss the boat. But I think that there's a danger of analysing the minutiae beyond the ability of the 'evidence' to bear the analysis. It's a link bait headline, some will read it as a signal to buy and some potential buyers will read it as a reason to cool their jets. If something really is kicking off presently, the numbers haven't shown up yet. An indicator of this type is pretty thin gruel.

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If dumb is the new smart we're in a lot of trouble.

Where does it end? When people start walking off the cliffs at dover with expectation that they will float in the air?

None of them predicted any of this, there was no thought, there is dumb luck. And it ain't over yet. If there were any smart people there they've sold by now… look whats coming.

+1 :lol:

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