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Something Is Happening (Again)

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Back in spring 2013 I wrote this topic : Something Is Happening

Since then the government instructed banks to lend [mortgages] like a sailor on shore leave, I know because my bank manager candidly told me this. They have introduced HTB one and two in a desperate measure to produce a feel-good factor for the 2015 election. This has left me sitting on the sidelines feeling dejected watching the price of a family home spiral out of reach once more, the bank offered me 6.5 x income but somehow I just couldn't see myself being able to pay it off in what remains of my dull lifetime.

Then late spring of this year with a surge of new properties at truly bonkers prices I began to watch a familiar pattern as they all just sat there, one or two going STC and back, one or two savagely reduced and selling while most got taken off the market again. As the summer has progressed this has gathered momentum. A friend with her cottage up for sale for six months has taken it off the market with... not a single viewing.

My email inbox this week :

30/07/14

4 xxxxx Grove, xxxxx, Hampshire, GUxxxxx, Guide Price £450,000

04/08/14

4 xxxxx Grove, xxxxx, Hampshire, GUxxxxx, Price On Application

05/08/14

4 xxxxx Grove, xxxxx, Hampshire, GUxxxxx, OIEO £400,000

Looks to me like sanity is returning, my guess is that we'll be back to spring 2013 by autumn.

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Back in spring 2013 I wrote this topic : Something Is Happening

Since then the government instructed banks to lend [mortgages] like a sailor on shore leave, I know because my bank manager candidly told me this. They have introduced HTB one and two in a desperate measure to produce a feel-good factor for the 2015 election. This has left me sitting on the sidelines feeling dejected watching the price of a family home spiral out of reach once more, the bank offered me 6.5 x income but somehow I just couldn't see myself being able to pay it off in what remains of my dull lifetime.

Then late spring of this year with a surge of new properties at truly bonkers prices I began to watch a familiar pattern as they all just sat there, one or two going STC and back, one or two savagely reduced and selling while most got taken off the market again. As the summer has progressed this has gathered momentum. A friend with her cottage up for sale for six months has taken it off the market with... not a single viewing.

My email inbox this week :

30/07/14

4 xxxxx Grove, xxxxx, Hampshire, GUxxxxx, Guide Price £450,000

04/08/14

4 xxxxx Grove, xxxxx, Hampshire, GUxxxxx, Price On Application

05/08/14

4 xxxxx Grove, xxxxx, Hampshire, GUxxxxx, OIEO £400,000

Looks to me like sanity is returning, my guess is that we'll be back to spring 2013 by autumn.

Same here. It's weird that the feel good factor has made so many feel so depressed. IMO it was a get out of jail free card for many of them in the know.

Wake me up when we're back Jan 2000.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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Round here that's cheap believe it or not. (4 bed)

Cheap and 400k should never be used together.. ;)

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Not if you earn the average wage it's not.

I agree on the multiples of salary, but just to point out the "average" wage also consists of a lot of people who push their wages down and pay less tax through company expenses, trusts and dividends. So, the actually average income is probably a lot higher that 26K -ish

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It's weird that the feel good factor has made so many feel so depressed.

For every action theres and equal and opposite reaction.

For every winner there is a loser.

The number of losers has been increasing every year for the last 10 years!

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Guest eight

I agree on the multiples of salary, but just to point out the "average" wage also consists of a lot of people who push their wages down and pay less tax through company expenses, trusts and dividends. So, the actually average income is probably a lot higher that 26K -ish

I don't know a single person that earns more than 26K.

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I agree on the multiples of salary, but just to point out the "average" wage also consists of a lot of people who push their wages down and pay less tax through company expenses, trusts and dividends. So, the actually average income is probably a lot higher that 26K -ish

May well be true for the mean, but the average person (95%+) certainly doesn't do that.

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Please Sir, can you step outside of your cognitive bias for a moment for me?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anchoring

I was being somewhat sarcastic, this area is full of boomers who are wedded to the notion that there should always be 10% HPI and they are super-canny property experts one and all even though they can barely calculate the tip in a restaurant without a smart-phone.

May well be true for the mean, but the average person (95%+) certainly doesn't do that.

Being within commutable distance from London convinces everyone that there are hordes of City types dying to buy their run-down property with the mountain of cash bonus they get every year. People have become accustomed to 5/6 x income loans as the norm though.

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If i truly believed that Osborne would not pull another obscene rabbit from his moth ridden hat to once more prop up this freakshow, i would STR and get out of Dodge tomorrow. But he ******ing will won't he?

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If i truly believed that Osborne would not pull another obscene rabbit from his moth ridden hat to once more prop up this freakshow, i would STR and get out of Dodge tomorrow. But he ******ing will won't he?

Can Osborne afford more props whilst running a 7% deficit? Nothing could save the market form falls back in 2009, the props created a quick recovery in prices and that's mainly due to low interest rates.

This time they won't be able to lower interest rates.

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Can Osborne afford more props whilst running a 7% deficit? Nothing could save the market form falls back in 2009, the props created a quick recovery in prices and that's mainly due to low interest rates.

This time they won't be able to lower interest rates.

What price at the bookies these being used to calm the markets ? :

Glasgow+1919.jpg

Yes, for those wondering that is a british tank on a british street !!!

http://aangirfan.blogspot.co.uk/2009/11/bloody.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_George_Square

Fascinating the things you didn't know.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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What price at the bookies these being used to calm the markets ? :

Glasgow+1919.jpg

Yes, for those wondering that is a british tank on a british street !!!

http://aangirfan.blogspot.co.uk/2009/11/bloody.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_George_Square

Fascinating the things you didn't know.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-orders-three-water-cannon-for-met-police-9525221.html

Water cannon coming to London: Boris Johnson approves controversial crowd control tactic in challenge to Theresa May’s authority
53228664-%281%29.jpg

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Can Osborne afford more props whilst running a 7% deficit? Nothing could save the market form falls back in 2009, the props created a quick recovery in prices and that's mainly due to low interest rates.

This time they won't be able to lower interest rates.

50 year inter-generational mortgages?

With free 10% deposit (paid by taxpayer) now?

Stamp duty slashed?

All that new pension money being freed up too, don't forget that.

What a disgrace he is.

Edited by shindigger

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There is also the factor that many (and I can't judge the ratio) will now have bought houses as a speculative investment - "you can't lose with bricks and mortar" etc as opposed to those buying a home with their x3 income.

Will those speculators be more inclined to panic and try to cut losses if the market turns down?

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There is also the factor that many (and I can't judge the ratio) will now have bought houses as a speculative investment - "you can't lose with bricks and mortar" etc as opposed to those buying a home with their x3 income.

Will those speculators be more inclined to panic and try to cut losses if the market turns down?

Will those investors be thrown to the lions in order to save the banks.....I think we all know the answer to that....stitched up like a kipper springs to mind.

I can see the headlines....Tories crack down on BTL empires, we just want our children to have homes etc etc etc;

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http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-orders-three-water-cannon-for-met-police-9525221.html

Water cannon coming to London: Boris Johnson approves controversial crowd control tactic in challenge to Theresa May’s authority
53228664-%281%29.jpg

And now, coincidentally, the Police on mainland Britain are routinely arming themselves for the first time.

There are too many 'coincidences' occurring to dismiss the idea that 'uncontrolled' immigration (amongst many other things) was not, in fact deliberate, to stoke support for fascism. After all it is easier to get the proles to hate their neighbours instead of some Arab pantomime villain living in a faraway cave.

Britain is stepping over the threshold into becoming a fascist police state.

Britain's first armed police on routine patrol

_76759759_cascade_armed_police_inverness

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50 year inter-generational mortgages?

With free 10% deposit (paid by taxpayer) now?

Stamp duty slashed?

All that new pension money being freed up too, don't forget that.

What a disgrace he is.

Don't forget the PPI money being paid out by lenders underwritten by the government. Any way to divert taxpayers money to borrowers will be considered. In the end though it just makes matters worse. Last year I was expecting a 30% to 40% nominal house price correction, within the next few years, now I expect it to be more, perhaps 60% to 70% in some parts of London.

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Don't forget the PPI money being paid out by lenders underwritten by the government. Any way to divert taxpayers money to borrowers will be considered. In the end though it just makes matters worse. Last year I was expecting a 30% to 40% nominal house price correction, within the next few years, now I expect it to be more, perhaps 60% to 70% in some parts of London.

+1

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Don't forget the PPI money being paid out by lenders underwritten by the government. Any way to divert taxpayers money to borrowers will be considered. In the end though it just makes matters worse. Last year I was expecting a 30% to 40% nominal house price correction, within the next few years, now I expect it to be more, perhaps 60% to 70% in some parts of London.

I notice new car registrations are back toward their 2007 peak. Quelle surprise.

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