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Dave Beans

Donny Ahead Of The Curve?

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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-2709948/House-prices-Doncaster-lower-today-TEN-years-ago.html

I only glanced through the article (mainly to look at the pictures/prices), and I don't know Doncaster. Perhaps it's a slightly lifeless place with little job opportunity, but it's nice to see some sentiment changing, even if it's reserved for the tabloids. With that said, they do refer to it as a 'chilling warning' !

Edited by You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet

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The ones pictured look very overvalued to me, even without accounting for it not being a jobs/young-peopl hotspot. Maybe it's just me. Maybe 1/5 to 1/4 a million pounds to find deposit for, and then repay over 25 years, is no biggie - for a mid-tier average family home. Whilst having enough left over to live a life, raise family, a holiday a year, a bit toward a pension... then uncertainty of what happens when mortgage rates rise, being a workaholic 2 earning family, and uncertainty with job market.

Alright for some older owners who can buy again and leave main house empty; solid pensions, savings compounded for decades, HPI. Time for some sellers to blink, and lower prices a lot, before others beat them to it.

When Martin retired as managing director of an engineering inspection firm two years ago, the couple decided they wanted to move closer to the town centre. But their house has taken so long to sell they’ve already moved out and into their new home. Martin, 60, says: ‘It was our family home for 40 years. We have such lovely memories and we want another family to enjoy it in the same way. ‘I have to come back every few days. It also needs cleaning regularly so it is ready for any viewings and I have to mow the lawn.’ On top of this they’re paying council tax and utility bills at both properties. And his insurance costs are also higher because the property is empty. Mr Dawson says: ‘At the end of the year we will have to rethink what we are going to do — this isn’t sustainable. I don’t want to rent the house because of the emotional ties, but we may have no choice.’ They originally put their home on the market for £247,500 in October 2012. It’s now on for £229,950. With no university, and the old industrial jobs gone and little to replace them, first-time buyers are leaving to find work in Leeds, Manchester, Sheffield and London. It means young families in Doncaster can’t sell because there is no one to buy their home, and, in turn, the older couples, such as the Dawsons, who want to sell larger family homes, haven’t got anyone to buy their homes.

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one has to ask why so many new houses were built there - most of the houses in the article looked like new estate houses

quote

'In the five years to 2013, 3,820 new homes were built in Doncaster compared to just 1,280 in Oxford and 2,120 in Cambridge. So what’s the problem with Doncaster’s housing market?'

was the government encouraging builders to build where there is stagnant demand?

was it cheap land and easy planning consent?

editted to add

Doncaster was part of this

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Housing_Market_Renewal_Initiative

which demolished old terraced house to build posh new ones (New Labour and John Prescott? )

to 'renew' the housing market :wacko:

Edited by olliegog

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Slightly over valued I'd say, it's hard to say without seeing them in person. I don't think we're ever going to reach a stage where they're practically giving houses away. Even my parents struggled when their first house was 4.5k. We had no carpets, no wallpaper, no bathroom and the toilet was at the bottom of the garden - it wasn't uncommon. I don't know it's ever been easy, but it's certainly madness at present.

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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-2709948/House-prices-Doncaster-lower-today-TEN-years-ago.html

I only glanced through the article (mainly to look at the pictures/prices), and I don't know Doncaster. Perhaps it's a slightly lifeless place with little job opportunity, but it's nice to see some sentiment changing, even if it's reserved for the tabloids. With that said, they do refer to it as a 'chilling warning' !

Perhaps????????

200K++++++??????????

'With no university, and the old industrial jobs gone and little to replace them, first-time buyers are leaving to find work in Leeds, Manchester, Sheffield and London. It means young families in Doncaster can’t sell because there is no one to buy their home, and, in turn, the older couples, such as the Dawsons, who want to sell larger family homes, haven’t got anyone to buy their homes.'

No, it means there's no generation to follow the selling generation.

The earning multiples fro Donny are going to be less than than 3 - he needs to be thinking 2 times a good local salary, which means about 100k, tops.

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If average wages are down (in real terms) over the decade than I would not expect house prices to have risen much.

UK house prices rises since 2002 are unjustified. They'll struggle to stay above 2002 level, even with relatively low IRs.

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Errr....until about 3 months ago most of britains house prices were less than 10 years ago and that's with 6 years of all out government support and low interest rates.

House prices will still be the even lower in another 10 years.

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30 years ago I remember my dad buying a house in Doncaster (Spotborough maybe?) for £25k. We lived in Hertfordshire in rented so he saw an investment opportunity for his capital. I remember spending a week of the summer holidays helping him to tidy the garden, paint a few walls etc. He sold it about 18months later for £50k. I seem to remember the train track to London electrified or speeded up around this time to generate what may have accounted for this rapid rise.

It just shows that house prices will always cycle up and down. The skill is spotting opportunity, buying low and selling high.

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To be fair,away from the hype,that are many towns as you head north that have failed to follow London since 2004.

Northampton,Leicester,Nottingham,Brum,Leeds etc.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices-in-my-area.html

There's been more bubble in the rural postcodes possibly.

Places like Doncaster are facing a reality in which house prices are linked to disposable income and job security.

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one has to ask why so many new houses were built there - most of the houses in the article looked like new estate houses

quote

'In the five years to 2013, 3,820 new homes were built in Doncaster compared to just 1,280 in Oxford and 2,120 in Cambridge. So what’s the problem with Doncaster’s housing market?'

was the government encouraging builders to build where there is stagnant demand?

was it cheap land and easy planning consent?

editted to add

Doncaster was part of this

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Housing_Market_Renewal_Initiative

which demolished old terraced house to build posh new ones (New Labour and John Prescott? )

to 'renew' the housing market :wacko:

What, you mean to say that building new homes doesn't create sustainable employment. Sounds like you'll be needing some re-education.

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It suffers from subsidence because it's built on coal mines but sounds a good place for a pre racial riots sing song.

Residents of a Doncaster village gathered in force to demand more action to stamp out anti-social behaviour and rubbish dumping they blame on an influx of immigrants.
More than 120 people packed into St Jude’s Church at Hexthorpe for a Police and Communities Together meeting.
Householders told police and council officers they felt ‘let down’ and said Hexthorpe should not be a ‘dumping ground’
Hundreds of Roma people from Slovakia have moved to the area in recent years and locals blame them for a big increase in nuisance behaviour and fly tipping.
In the past three weeks Doncaster Council has shifted 24 tonnes of rubbish from the village’s streets.
Although a four-week crackdown started this week, the residents were not convinced it would work in the long-term.
Karen Hanson, head of environmental control at the council, said 11 tonnes of rubbish had been collected this week and 22 fixed penalty notices issued for littering.
Another 34 notices were issued in relation to untidy gardens and 15 noise complaints are being investigated.
Officers are also carrying out benefit checks on tenants in private rented accommodation and working with the Home Office on immigration enforcement.
South Yorkshire Police have sent in extra patrols until midnight every day and some vehicles have been confiscated for having no tax or for their drivers being uninsured.
Residents who spoke up complained of rotting meat being left in alleyways, police failing to respond to alleged assaults, and groups of up to 30 people wandering the streets in the early hours ‘singing their heads off
One man, to applause, said: “It feels like we’ve been passed from pillar to post with no resolution.
“There are loads of people saying the police are not treating us with the respect we deserve. Hexthorpe is being let down and we’ve lost faith in you.”
A woman said people ‘are going to take the law into their own hands’ and another wanted to know why no-one from the Roma community had attended the meeting to hear residents’ concerns.
Paul Adams, spokesman for the Hexthorpe and Balby Residents’ Group, said: “This has caused a lot of stress and you have seen the visible evidence of that.
“The behaviour is something that has to be addressed. 
“The Roma Slovaks have to understand how we live in England if they want to live here.
“The issue is their behaviour. They have to understand what is expected of people living in our village.”
It is believed there are about 500 Slovaks living in Hexhorpe, most of them in private rented accommodation, with none in council properties.
Deputy Mayor Glyn Jones told the meeting private landlords were ‘dragging Hexthorpe down’.
“That’s one of the most vital things to ensure landlords and tenants are meeting their civic responsibilities. But it’s not just here, it’s in Balby, Bentley and Wheatley as well, but this appears to be the largest concentration.
“I’ve seen the issues caused by groups of people, young and old, milling about. 
“The police and council cannot solve this alone. You have to have dialogue with them.”

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I was up in Donny earlier in the year and it's pretty run down.

Sure property there is relatively cheap, but still way overpriced for the location. Ten years ago is after the 'great inflation' of the early 2000's. Let's see the prices get back to y2k, then we're talking reasonable value.

Q

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All of the older guests were being portrayed as victims by Vine because their houses hadn't risen astronomically in price.....

Gggrrrrrrrr

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I was up in Donny earlier in the year and it's pretty run down.

Sure property there is relatively cheap, but still way overpriced for the location. Ten years ago is after the 'great inflation' of the early 2000's. Let's see the prices get back to y2k, then we're talking reasonable value.

Q

Nowt rong wi donny, its rest of ya who dont spoke rate.

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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-2709948/House-prices-Doncaster-lower-today-TEN-years-ago.html

I only glanced through the article (mainly to look at the pictures/prices), and I don't know Doncaster. Perhaps it's a slightly lifeless place with little job opportunity, but it's nice to see some sentiment changing, even if it's reserved for the tabloids. With that said, they do refer to it as a 'chilling warning' !

Ah so.....what you are saying only places that have life and plenty of jobs are worth living in...........but plenty of jobs bring with it high house prices...........so lower house prices, can accommodate lower paying jobs or jobs that offer more free time....even the quietest places have life, driving through you wouldn't tell what goes on behind closed doors.....but you can tell a high density, overcrowded place......high house prices doesn't mean better people or a place with a better quality of work life balance.....in fact sometimes it can mean the opposite. ;)

Edited by winkie

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Perhaps????????

200K++++++??????????

...No, it means there's no generation to follow the selling generation.

The earning multiples fro Donny are going to be less than than 3 - he needs to be thinking 2 times a good local salary, which means about 100k, tops.

Yes. Although it would really upset the save the victim, "I'm the judge of house prices" - "Stop the suffering." "They didn't know what they were doing." £100,000 is a lot of money. Lot of older owners would still be selling for loads more than they paid. I just wanted markets to decide - not be judge myself, other than holding myself back from buying at crazy prices.

Slightly over valued I'd say, it's hard to say without seeing them in person. I don't think we're ever going to reach a stage where they're practically giving houses away. Even my parents struggled when their first house was 4.5k. We had no carpets, no wallpaper, no bathroom and the toilet was at the bottom of the garden - it wasn't uncommon. I don't know it's ever been easy, but it's certainly madness at present.

We should have reached that stage, had it not been for global QE etc. Perhaps as banks get better capitalised, they can allow markets to decide, without HTB and other schemes.

1. http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-45399275.html

= no sold price found on publics, but this for other sold prices in ths postcode

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/DN9-1TE.html

2. http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-30668370.html?premiumA=true

= http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatching.html?prop=30668370&sale=15338027&country=england

Sale Date: 24 Nov 2000

Property: Detached, Freehold (New Build)

Price Paid: £95,000

3. http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-45007018.html

Other houses sold in postcode: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/DN4-9LX.html

4. http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-31373214.html

Other houses sold in postcode: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/DN8-5UD.html

5. http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-46378961.html?premiumA=true

Other houses sold in postcode: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/DN4-8SA.html

So I'm thinking a 1999 price, of say £90,000 (and then a price below tthat), given state of economy,

inflation outlay costs for energy/fuel,harder to find yield for savings to pension, employment/opportunity outlook in area etc

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