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How Long To Wait ?


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Thanks for all the replies... It would appear we are returning to a reasonably 'normal' functioning' market.

It'll be interesting to see how Euro QE may affect things.... The FED & BoE will surely follow in search of inflation & in turn it may well have an impact on HPI.

There are various other variables which may have an effect on asking & selling prices. The next 3-4 years will be an interesting period in my opinion.

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To be honest I think you should buy as prices are as low as they will get, unless there is some sort of global crash again. I travel lots and I think you will see more people coming to Northern Ireland and more competition for housing. This is especially true if corporation tax is lowered. It's possible that more sites will be passed for planning with the changes to planning responsibilities, but I can't see much reduction. I would say, if you have the energy and have a deposit start to go and see houses and make a low offer, there are stil plenty of people wanting to sell and outside of the posh parts of Belfast it's a buyers market. Don't forget a house is also a home and there is the advantage ghost one day you own it.

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I have to disagree with the corporation tax bit and also the people wanting to travel to Northern ireland for work. I do a fair bit of work in other parts of Europe, in particular eastern Europe but some in Germany and France and I can tell you N.I doesn't make it in discussions there. The Republic rate of CT maybe 12.5% but large multinationals get away with paying 1 or 2%. We are not going to attract the Facebook and PayPals of tomorrow here. We're 30+ years behind and with a 300-700 million block grant cut to pay for it, it's unlikely Invest will have the clout to offer anything else.

You've also got to realise, the recent stormont agreement, was essentially £2 billion of new loans to pay for some 20,000 redundancies. It's hard to see how the private sector will ever make that number up. Certainly not in manufacturing, and the CT cuts won't include the banking sector.

Oh and just to add, 90% of the current CT tax take for NI is from small business.

Edited by 2buyornot2buy
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The double tax loop was closed already so the days of paying 1 or 2 percent tax are gone. Without a tax cut wd are already seeing investment here, so a cut to 12.5 percent will be a big boost. My understanding is the bailout is more about stepping the cuts to bring us back to a normal economy helped by a tax cut.

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The double tax loop was closed already so the days of paying 1 or 2 percent tax are gone. Without a tax cut wd are already seeing investment here, so a cut to 12.5 percent will be a big boost. My understanding is the bailout is more about stepping the cuts to bring us back to a normal economy helped by a tax cut.

It hasn't been closed yet. The "double Irish" is alive and well. (For existing companies)

We're seeing "investment" here in the form of FDI, i.e tax payer subsidised.

The tax cut will be funded by a block grant cut. 350-700 million gone. As I said the vast majority of CT here is paid by companies with fewer than 3 employees. You're not going to see job creation in any great numbers here. The actual cash amount is too small. I'll do what many others will do and pocket the savings.

The "bailout" is a treasury loan. 700 million of which is to reduce the public sector by 20,000. So a 700 million loan to remove 560 million in annual public sector salaries and then a 350-700 million block grant reduction.

I'm having trouble thinking of a worse possible outcome.

Edited by 2buyornot2buy
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I would say that BT9 is selling about the RV but agree that the number of houses is limited. £350-£450 in BT9 sells at a premium and fairly easily. The £600k+ houses still sell OK.

For Example

http://www.templetonrobinson.co.uk/Property/belfast/TRLTRL74168/2a-deramore-park/1432096/

Price: £375k - current offer @ £450k

RV is closer to the offer than the asking price.

Anyone know what it went for? -I see it's SA. Last offer I saw on TR website was £560k.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Guess I should fess up and say we bought at the end of last year after selling 18 months previously and renting whilst waiting for the right place to come up. We got an offer we accepted on our previous house within a week at well over RV which all went smoothly and it was funny to be able to respond to overpriced sellers at viewings with "our house sold in a week, there's no problem with the market" when they said the bad market was the reason they were not able to find a buyer :)

We did spend a few months trying to buy an overpriced house we really liked that had been for sale for 3 years without an offer which proved to be a waste of our time with hapless sellers and their useless solicitors, still not entirely sure if they were actually trying to sell..

The previous owners of our house were absentee landlords that hadn’t been back in NI for years so we really should have treated the purchase a bit more like a repo not being able to get answers to questions or being able to look someone in the eye. After moving in we found out they hadn't been paying their bills either so even more repo like.

Had we been been pushing it affordability wise we would have been a bit stuffed with the things we uncovered, neglect you'd likely not get from owner occupied, lots of nasty and dangerous botch jobs (either DIY or letting agent tradesmen not giving a f**k) and one deliberate hidden bit of maliciousness that I assume was intended against the landlord but we're of course picking up the bill. The homebuyers report was expensive toilet roll. All that said, the house, location and the ground (they'd stick 4/5 detached houses on this plot now) tick all our boxes and we knew there would be some problems with it being an older house and ex-rental so left a pot aside just in case and can cope without selling the gold.

We're bedding in here now and I thank my lucky stars I found HPC during the boom otherwise the 15k of unexpected maintenance might have had 240k of mortgage on top of it!

Edited by Sure thing!
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Haha seems everyone was following this property

I think it's a bit unfair to get too carried away with this one as it was previously on for 795k

When I saw this at 375 I was a bit like feck me that's a good price so not surprised it went higher.

Don't think it has much of a garden and actually if u take a look it's a bit ugly outside but no doubt it's a nice finish inside. I would of def thought it's a 500k house tbh

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It was here in 2006 etc and was as pessimistic as the next man but in all seriousness if you have the money such as a decent deposit then why not buy?? Not only are house prices in real terms down a sh1teload since 2007 u have historic low interest rates.

Let's say you've 50 grand saved with nationwide at 3% fixed for 10 years it's only like 386 quid a month on 100k.

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Haha seems everyone was following this property

I think it's a bit unfair to get too carried away with this one as it was previously on for 795k

When I saw this at 375 I was a bit like feck me that's a good price so not surprised it went higher.

Don't think it has much of a garden and actually if u take a look it's a bit ugly outside but no doubt it's a nice finish inside. I would of def thought it's a 500k house tbh

Yeah, I had the brochure saved and I found it online again from when it was on and occupied at 795

http://c1415082.r82.cf3.rackcdn.com/TRLTRL74168/TRLTRL74168-1.pdf

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It was here in 2006 etc and was as pessimistic as the next man but in all seriousness if you have the money such as a decent deposit then why not buy?? Not only are house prices in real terms down a sh1teload since 2007 u have historic low interest rates.

Let's say you've 50 grand saved with nationwide at 3% fixed for 10 years it's only like 386 quid a month on 100k.

The fact interest rates are so low is the reason I'm not buying right now. As a general economic rule prices are inversely proportional to interest rates/yield.

If I could fix for the full term of the mortgage at today's rates that's another matter....

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lets say mortgage rates offered by the banks go from 3% to 6% as a result of rate rises from the BoE.

your monthly mortgage payments will rise by a third so u need property to fall by a third to offset vs fixing now for 10 years

i have been a believer that low rates are here to stay and nothing yet is telling me otherwise ( no wage inflation / little general inflation etc )

Edited by getdoon_weebobby
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lets say mortgage rates offered by the banks go from 3% to 6% as a result of rate rises from the BoE.

your monthly mortgage payments will rise by a third so u need property to fall by a third to offset vs fixing now for 10 years

i have been a believer that low rates are here to stay and nothing yet is telling me otherwise ( no wage inflation / little general inflation etc )

I'd much rather buy a house with 1/3 off and higher interest rates for the same monthly payment as the capital part becomes easier to pay off. As an extreme example someone with 2/3 of the original price saved will have no mortgage whatsoever. If mortgage rates went from 3% to 6% it would be carnage imo - so many people right on the edge.

If I buy now and rates go up, I'll definitely be in a worse position. Fixing for 10 years = higher rates to compensate for the reduced risk.

I agree that I think rates will most likely stay low for the forseeable future, but in that scenario (low inflation/wage growth) I don't really want a large mortgage round my neck that will remain high in real terms over the entire term. At present I'm fairly well diversified accross asset classes in my investments - don't fancy switching all of that for a leveraged play on a volitile housing market with so much uncertainty around.

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I'd much rather buy a house with 1/3 off and higher interest rates for the same monthly payment as the capital part becomes easier to pay off. As an extreme example someone with 2/3 of the original price saved will have no mortgage whatsoever. If mortgage rates went from 3% to 6% it would be carnage imo - so many people right on the edge.

If I buy now and rates go up, I'll definitely be in a worse position. Fixing for 10 years = higher rates to compensate for the reduced risk.

I agree that I think rates will most likely stay low for the forseeable future, but in that scenario (low inflation/wage growth) I don't really want a large mortgage round my neck that will remain high in real terms over the entire term. At present I'm fairly well diversified accross asset classes in my investments - don't fancy switching all of that for a leveraged play on a volitile housing market with so much uncertainty around.

what`s giving the best return then ?

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what`s giving the best return then ?

For me it's all about being as well diversified as I can be in my investments rather than chasing return - any savings I have is spread amongst:

- Cash

- Equities

- Bonds

- Property (funds rather than individual properties)

- Commodities

- etc.

I prefer that than putting everything into 1 basket - and buying a property with leverage is an extreme example of this as more than 100% of your assets are in 1 asset class. Most people will at some point in their lives do this however, due to non-investment reasons (settling down, family, etc) and that's reasonable - for me it's important to think carefully about the timing of this and ensure you're not taking on extra risk through income multiples, potential negative equity (if you plan on moving in short/medium term), interest rate environment, future earning potential (e.g. starting a family), good rental home availability, etc.

In terms of "best return" it's not really as simple as that - it's all relative in the investment world as an invesmtent with a higher return will inevitably have a higher risk associated with it. So equities should have higher return than bonds for example, but more risk/volatility to go along with it. So it depends on your circumstances and appetite for risk as to which investment(s) offer the best return/risk profile for you.

Obviously this is fairly simplistic - but my attitude is that the economy in general is on fairly shaky ground at the minute - and I'm trying to position myself for that as best I can through diversification.

Edited by martymcfly
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ok marty - best of luck with your decision. hope it works out for you. I own a house now alongside

- Cash

- Equities

- Bonds

- Property (funds rather than individual properties)

- Commodities

- etc.

I just think if you have the money , with interest rates where they are - sub 3% 10 year fixes, house prices have had huge falls in NI in real and nominal falls , your now 7-8 years on from the peak, its a great chance to buy in at *reasonable prices. I'm getting in now on a fee free 10 year fix @ 3.04% which allows 10% overpayments per year............. ( look back at my history i was a big bad bear in 2006 2007 etc )

Edited by getdoon_weebobby
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ok marty - best of luck with your decision. hope it works out for you. I own a house now alongside

- Cash

- Equities

- Bonds

- Property (funds rather than individual properties)

- Commodities

- etc.

I just think if you have the money , with interest rates where they are - sub 3% 10 year fixes, house prices have had huge falls in NI in real and nominal falls , your now 7-8 years on from the peak, its a great chance to buy in at *reasonable prices. I'm getting in now on a fee free 10 year fix @ 3.04% which allows 10% overpayments per year............. ( look back at my history i was a big bad bear in 2006 2007 etc )

Thanks - in my current situation I'd have to liquidate pretty much everything in order to get a reasonable deposit on a house if be happy spending the rest of my days in - too risky for me I'm afraid!!

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For me it's all about being as well diversified as I can be in my investments rather than chasing return - any savings I have is spread amongst:

- Cash

- Equities

- Bonds

- Property (funds rather than individual properties)

- Commodities

- etc.

forgive me if i am being stupid but if there is little return whats the point ?

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