Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
headmelter

How Long To Wait ?

Recommended Posts

After 50% falls since 2007 How long are HPC'ers planning to wait before taking the plunge ?

Or What level are you expecting to drop to ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Even though I think prices are too expensive, I'm starting to come to the conclusion that they won't drop any more....because basically, the sheeple are that stupid and don't mind paying through the nose. It's part of the national psyche.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've been looking to buy since mid last year, it has just taken a bit of time for the sort of houses I'm interested in to align themselves with the current reality, but I am seeing buyers and sellers meeting at this level so not expecting too much in the way of further drops without "something" happening.

I do think prices should be a lot lower though, something might happen to do this at some point but having seen how slow prices are on the way down even if this something happens it'll still take years for peoples heads to get around the new reality so I need to just get on with it knowing I'm okay with what I am paying.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If the London market did 'pop', would anyone here care to guess how much nominal drops in NI could be? That is, considering prices here have dropped approx 50% from peak.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I bought about 2 1/2 years ago now. The same kind of house directly behind me has just sold, had an asking price of £20k more than I paid 2 1/2 years ago and it is without a conservatory and garage. It was sold within a week of the sign going up.

I had a good deposit, mortgage in principle, no chain and was clued up and ready to buy. Everyone else with offers on the house I bought had none of these. The seller had reduced the house to the 'minimum' price to generate interest and to get a bidding war going. Fortunately for me and unfortunately for him it never happened.

A fair bit of the reasonably priced stuff around Bangor has gone to sale agreed recently, lots still sitting with silly prices to tho.

I'm 33, my friends of similar age have bought recently or are actively looking to buy. They all think prices have stabilised, if not starting to go up again even. So depending on what you're buying you may have some competition soon if they are anything to go by.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I bought about 2 1/2 years ago now. The same kind of house directly behind me has just sold, had an asking price of £20k more than I paid 2 1/2 years ago and it is without a conservatory and garage. It was sold within a week of the sign going up.

I had a good deposit, mortgage in principle, no chain and was clued up and ready to buy. Everyone else with offers on the house I bought had none of these. The seller had reduced the house to the 'minimum' price to generate interest and to get a bidding war going. Fortunately for me and unfortunately for him it never happened.

A fair bit of the reasonably priced stuff around Bangor has gone to sale agreed recently, lots still sitting with silly prices to tho.

I'm 33, my friends of similar age have bought recently or are actively looking to buy. They all think prices have stabilised, if not starting to go up again even. So depending on what you're buying you may have some competition soon if they are anything to go by.

Trouble is, as repeatedly mentioned here, you don't know what these houses sold for, including your neighbour's, which may have gone to the first half reasonable real offer. There's nothing like a cheque book being waved in your face to help you decide.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If the London market did 'pop', would anyone here care to guess how much nominal drops in NI could be? That is, considering prices here have dropped approx 50% from peak.

Wild guess- 30% from here, meaning an overall drop of two thirds. Looks extreme from that angle, but no reason why not.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

in NI i bought our first home in 2012 having been on here since 05 as a browser and 06 as a poster (deleted username) and 07 as this username.

there is no danger in waiting but realistically I think prices are favourable at the minute and if affordable then why not

i speak as someone who was insanely bearish in 06 07 etc that I think prices in NI for the most part are somewhere close to a nominal bottom

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

According to Nationwide you have house prices bottoming in Q4 2012 in line with 2004 prices.

Up about 10% since going by the latest quarterly figures so on a par with Q2 2005 prices.

£100,000 in 2004 is £134,000 adjusted for inflation in 2014 (approx).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Trouble is, as repeatedly mentioned here, you don't know what these houses sold for, including your neighbour's, which may have gone to the first half reasonable real offer. There's nothing like a cheque book being waved in your face to help you decide.

If a house sells within a week I'd imagine that the seller got reasonably close to what they where looking for, or you think they would have held on for another week at least wouldn't you ? New owners where moved in and all before the month was out.

in NI i bought our first home in 2012 having been on here since 05 as a browser and 06 as a poster (deleted username) and 07 as this username.

there is no danger in waiting but realistically I think prices are favourable at the minute and if affordable then why not

i speak as someone who was insanely bearish in 06 07 etc that I think prices in NI for the most part are somewhere close to a nominal bottom

This seems to be the general consensus among my friends and the people I work with who are all around 30ish, probably about the usual first time buyer age now I would expect. They mostly think the houses they are looking at are decent value, they don't want to rent any longer and they can get a mortgage. So they are looking to buy and so are most of my friends, if they end up looking at the same houses then I'd imagine whoever's selling them won't be in a rush to drop their price.

What about the inevitable interest rate rise and the high percentage of people who are already in negative equity?

Yes interest rates are sure to go up. I wouldn't think anything more than a token amount. The margin between the base rate and the average mortgage rate is in excess of what it normally has been. If anything this will squeeze before getting passed onto 'hard working homeowners'. Nobody has anything to gain by getting people chucked out into the street, not the government and not the banks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting reading.

I bought in Q2 2012. I believed prices, being back at around 2005 levels, were both affordable and reasonably good value for money.

I think you're a very lucky individual if you manage to time the market perfectly at the bottom.

A few points I picked up on... There would appear to be a lot of people ready and willing to buy at this level who have been renting. The market needs first time buyers in order to function. At current prices first time buyers can buy at similar levels to what they had been paying rent if not cheaper. A £100k mortgage at 5% will cost less than £600 per month. Most people see this as a more desirable and 'secure' option to that of renting, even though it costs slightly more.

IR's will rise but there are reasonable fixed rates available and the belief is they won't rise too much. I don't trust the reports in the MSN but, imo, the fundamentals seem to support the idea that the rates won't rise meteorically.

Mortgages are available and many FTBs have reasonable deposits enabling them to access these.

I understand there is a portion of the population in negative equity but I believe this is a smaller number than many on here believe. There was a bubble but that has deflated considerably since the peak in 2007.

The Londinium bubble may well pop but I think it will have a minor impact on prices here.

Another concern could be a second credit crunch, which seems very possible but if you're buying a home this won't be much of a concern imo.

My response is not an attempt to 'ramp up' the market. I have bought a home, not an investment, and my intention is to stay put for 10-15 years if not longer. Many of my friends are now talking about making a move 'up' the ladder and I also hear work colleagues discussing the possibility of moving house. This all gives the impression of a properly functioning market at present.

Just my thoughts....

Edited by headmelter

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi again and a happy & prosperous new year to you all.

What's happening ?

Are prices up or down over the last 6 months ?

Can anyone tell me what the transaction levels have been like ?

Will there be a spring bounce this year ?

Anyone planning on buying this year ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm planning to buy, circa 7 years after selling my last home in Northern Ireland.

Will be buying in Belfast.

I've been looking at asking prices, and what is selling, over the past 5 or 6 months. Perhaps not surprising but the desirable parts of BT9 appear strong with well located houses attracting bids in excess of offer price. Parts of BT4 and BT5 also appear in strong demand.

More generally, in my view, there is a lack of good property stock on the market which could be a consequence of negative equity limiting options for many of those who bought in the "boom" years who don't have the equity to "move up the ladder." This lack of stock has clearly helped drive prices up in the more sought after locations.

Also parts of Belfast remain weaker than the areas highlighted - much of the stock in North Belfast looks to be stagnant.

In summary, looking to buy in Belfast with budget around £350k max and hoping to see more properties coming onto the market in spring. I'm not buying for investment but for purposes of returning home - although I work in London, I can spend at least half my time working remotely from Belfast and, for me, I prefer Belfast significantly over London.

Prices? I don't have enough of a sense as to how the public sector cuts could impact the market. However, I would generally see the market posting very moderate growth / flat over the next 12 months.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm planning to buy, circa 7 years after selling my last home in Northern Ireland.

Will be buying in Belfast.

I've been looking at asking prices, and what is selling, over the past 5 or 6 months. Perhaps not surprising but the desirable parts of BT9 appear strong with well located houses attracting bids in excess of offer price. Parts of BT4 and BT5 also appear in strong demand.

I would say that BT9 is selling about the RV but agree that the number of houses is limited. £350-£450 in BT9 sells at a premium and fairly easily. The £600k+ houses still sell OK.

For Example

http://www.templetonrobinson.co.uk/Property/belfast/TRLTRL74168/2a-deramore-park/1432096/

Price: £375k - current offer @ £450k

RV is closer to the offer than the asking price.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You are correct to state North Belfast (Cavehill, Antrim Road) is stagnant at the moment. There seemed to be a pick up last year but since the 3rd Quarter there has been very little movement.

Stock on the market has mainly been sitting for some time - vendors are looking big money for houses that then need a fair bit of work(!). Still see houses coming on at 50-60K above the RV which strikes me as ridiculous.

In other words, we're still waiting. Keen to go but need some reality in the market.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Prices were up between 4% and 8% over the last 12 months, depending on which report you read. Volumes up around 25%

Most of the updates on my search since the turn of the year have been price reductions. Lower end mainly.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Most of the updates on my search since the turn of the year have been price reductions. Lower end mainly.

I was going by the Land Registry Reports

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I was going by the Land Registry Reports

I didn't know the land registry produced a report for NI. Perhaps you could forward the link?

BT9 is showing price increases. At the 200k - 250k end I'd say places are selling at 20% over the asking price, around the RV level.

At the 350-400 level I think it's something closer to 10%.

Interesting to see that up to November there were around 500 HTB sales in NI. Along with around 1200 Co-Ownership sales. So around say 4000 (including chains) transactions this year will have been supported by government intervention.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I didn't know the land registry produced a report for NI. Perhaps you could forward the link?

BT9 is showing price increases. At the 200k - 250k end I'd say places are selling at 20% over the asking price, around the RV level.

At the 350-400 level I think it's something closer to 10%.

Interesting to see that up to November there were around 500 HTB sales in NI. Along with around 1200 Co-Ownership sales. So around say 4000 (including chains) transactions this year will have been supported by government interventio

The Land and Property Service report is based on Land Registry Returns.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   224 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.