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Wurzel Of Highbridge

House Prices In France, Interesting Chart Of Demand Vs Prices.

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It's not demand versus prices, it's sales versus prices. If there's high demand and limited supply you'd expect to see exactly what the black and brown lines show.

Or am I missing something?

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Whatever the graph says, a minimum wage job where I live pays 15K and you can buy a house for 50K.

You'd be lucky to have a minimum wage job where you live. More likely 600 euros a month RSA.

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Wow ... those graphs gave me a bit of a headache. But I tried to understand what the implications were for current and future house prices in France. < have a personal interest as still thinking of buying in France to retire >

If u go to 1st link under heading "3.6. Property Prices and Rents in the Long Run : Presentations" of the OP's link (entitled "House Prices in the Long Run (January 2014)" , and then jump to p227, (of that French doc), you will see a graph called "Prospective sur les Prix ". (Never mind if you can't read French. Think it's quite clear.)

To me (if I understand it correctly) the graph seems to be saying that

1. House prices in France are well above a historial 'tunnel' value of 1. (Comparing house prices to disposable income over the years.)

2. There are 5 possible scenarios for future house prices in France, which are:

- "F" = "divergence from the historical 'tunnel' value of "1", which means prices can continue to go "up, up, up".

- "C","D", or "E" = the establishing of a new 'tunnel'" value (eg 2, 3 or higher) where a higher ratio is here to stay. But there will be a new stable 'tunnel' established at that ratio..)

- "A", or "B" = back to the historial 'tunnel' value of "1", which means big falls and then stability at the re-established historical value.

They say "F" looks unlikely. And I would have to agree, at least outside of Paris/Cote D'Azur? I assume that French economy is not going well, and incomes are not rising but taxes are?

They also say "C", "D", & "E" all look unlikely. (Again I would agree. Assume for same reasons why "F" is not likely, plus sellers of rural homes can't find enough ppl with the money who want to invest large amounts in a French house for hols or retirement eg the Brits/Dutch?)

So that leaves "A" and "B", which are a return to the historcal 'tunnel' ratio of prices to disposable income .

Does that imply the authors believe that French house prices will continue to fall from here on? And then stay at lower levels for quite a while? (Anyone else bothered to read the whole report/try to find out what the conclusion was?)

Prices look ~30% down in rural France (from say 2008) but still VERY high compared to local earnings. Maybe the quality is better/up, but hard to find a buyer, even if looks good value compared to say rural UK. (Cos supply of houses > number of serious buyers?) Some sellers look desperate to sell but are slow to recognise how much they need to lower the price. Or else they just can't. (Cos they need the cash to go home etc.) So they might be stuck for years, until they find someone who loves and house and will pay nearer to the asking price.

Would like to buy but worry a lot about selling if/when I want to go back to UK. So watching and waiting for now. (But will need to decide soon probably!)

If we do buy, we need to make sure we are not paying too much. (But of course, sellers will just see this as us being stingy.)

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Wow ... those graphs gave me a bit of a headache. But I tried to understand what the implications were for current and future house prices in France. < have a personal interest as still thinking of buying in France to retire >

If u go to 1st link under heading "3.6. Property Prices and Rents in the Long Run : Presentations" of the OP's link (entitled "House Prices in the Long Run (January 2014)" , and then jump to p227, (of that French doc), you will see a graph called "Prospective sur les Prix ". (Never mind if you can't read French. Think it's quite clear.)

To me (if I understand it correctly) the graph seems to be saying that

1. House prices in France are well above a historial 'tunnel' value of 1. (Comparing house prices to disposable income over the years.)

2. There are 5 possible scenarios for future house prices in France, which are:

- "F" = "divergence from the historical 'tunnel' value of "1", which means prices can continue to go "up, up, up".

- "C","D", or "E" = the establishing of a new 'tunnel'" value (eg 2, 3 or higher) where a higher ratio is here to stay. But there will be a new stable 'tunnel' established at that ratio..)

- "A", or "B" = back to the historial 'tunnel' value of "1", which means big falls and then stability at the re-established historical value.

They say "F" looks unlikely. And I would have to agree, at least outside of Paris/Cote D'Azur? I assume that French economy is not going well, and incomes are not rising but taxes are?

They also say "C", "D", & "E" all look unlikely. (Again I would agree. Assume for same reasons why "F" is not likely, plus sellers of rural homes can't find enough ppl with the money who want to invest large amounts in a French house for hols or retirement eg the Brits/Dutch?)

So that leaves "A" and "B", which are a return to the historcal 'tunnel' ratio of prices to disposable income .

Does that imply the authors believe that French house prices will continue to fall from here on? And then stay at lower levels for quite a while? (Anyone else bothered to read the whole report/try to find out what the conclusion was?)

Prices look ~30% down in rural France (from say 2008) but still VERY high compared to local earnings. Maybe the quality is better/up, but hard to find a buyer, even if looks good value compared to say rural UK. (Cos supply of houses > number of serious buyers?) Some sellers look desperate to sell but are slow to recognise how much they need to lower the price. Or else they just can't. (Cos they need the cash to go home etc.) So they might be stuck for years, until they find someone who loves and house and will pay nearer to the asking price.

Would like to buy but worry a lot about selling if/when I want to go back to UK. So watching and waiting for now. (But will need to decide soon probably!)

If we do buy, we need to make sure we are not paying too much. (But of course, sellers will just see this as us being stingy.)

If you want to have the best chance of buying at a reasonable price ignore the agents and go stright to the Notaire, they have the properties on their books and usually have the much cheaper doer-uppers.

Can take years to sell in France and quite often doesn't sell at all if not priced to sell in whatever market is prevailing at the time. Need to really know who is buying - the brits, the dutch, the parisians or whoever to know where to market if you do want to sell,

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At one time French people lived in apartments (well they still do) and had a country pad. However with increasing costs of owning a second home, high council taxes, travel costs to commute, maintenance etc. second homes have gone out of fashion. People would sooner go on holiday to new places rather than spend a week cleaning the old ruin in Burgundy and French women, who are increasingly working, do not want to spend a weeks holiday cooking and cleaning. At one time the French wouldn't commute to work but the trend seems to be to have a single home and when you form a family to move to the 'burbs to buy a bigger property.

At the same time Brits no longer see retiring in France as a dream - the Year in Provence generation is now in deep old age and either moving back to the UK or to Germany/Holland to a lesser extent and they are not being replaced due to fashion / demographics.

This has created a huge downward pressure on prices in areas where there is no work (French unemployment climbed 0.3% again this month - 5.4 million people are registered with the job center). In other areas: Rhône-Alpes, Toulouse, Paris, Côte d'Azur prices have held up much better. So viewing French prices as a single entity as the Frigget tunnel does may not work. In the town where I live anything that comes on the market, which is quite rare, is snapped up in days and costs around the same as similar areas in the UK.

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Interesting the way the chart shows everything starting to go haywire at precisely the year 2000 as if it was planned to do so at that particular time.

Edited by billybong

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Prices are still high in Spain, even with whole blocks 90% empty in major cities while they still build more.

This is a financialisation crisis and its way out of control throughout the western world. Prices have deleveraged from demand and supply, the neoliberal elite have made a right mess of things.

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Interesting the way the chart shows everything starting to go haywire at precisely the year 2000 as if it was planned to do so at that particular time.

Liquidity escaping the dot-com bubble burst seeking a safe-haven in property. Still sloshing about the financial system too.

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