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Sancho Panza

Uk Economy Upgraded Again As Imf Predicts 3.2 Per Cent Growth

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Telegraph 24/7/14

'Britain has been given the biggest growth upgrade of any major economy in the world by the IMF.

The International Monetary Fund now expects the UK to grow by 3.2 per cent this year and 2.7 per cent in 2015.

The upward revision of 0.4 percentage points in 2014, and 0.2 percentage points in 2015, from the last forecast in April is the largest upgrade of any major developed economy for both years.

However, the IMF warned in its quarterly World Economic Outlook that the Ukraine crisis and unrest in the Middle East risks creating a destabilising oil price spike.

The IMF has slashed Russia’s growth forecasts as international investors flee ahead of possible trade sanctions.

George Osborne, the Chancellor, said: “Today the IMF has upgraded their 2014 forecast for the UK by more than any other major economy.

"The Government’s long term economic plan is working. But the job is not yet done and so we will go on making the assessment of what needs to be done to secure a brighter economic future.“

Britain’s growth forecast was an “upside surprise”, the IMF said. It comes after the Fund warned that Mr Osborne was “playing with fire” over austerity measures and urged him to consider a Plan B.

Christine Lagarde, the head of the IMF, has since admitted they were wrong.

In July 2013 the IMF said growth for this year would be just 1.5 per cent – meaning its forecast has more than doubled in a year.

Official data tomorrow is expected to confirm that the British economy has finally surpassed its pre-recession peak.

A forecast of employers by the Confederation of British Industry, out today, show the “recovery shows little sign of slowing”. “There are signals that the recovery may now be on a more sustainable footing, with growth becoming more broad-based as business investment in particular grows strongly,” said Katja Hall, the CBI deputy director general.

Globally, growth for 2014 has been downgraded by 0.3 per cent to 3.4 per cent, reflecting weakness in the US and less optimistic forecasts for Brazil, Mexico and South Africa.

The euro area will grow weakly, by 1.1 per cent this year and 1.5 per cent next year.

China will grow by 7.1 per cent next year and India by 6.4 per cent, the Fund forecasts.

Oliver Banchard, the IMF economic counsellor, told a press conference in Mexico: “The recovery continues, but it remains a weak recovery, and indeed a bit weaker than we forecast in April.

“Advanced economies are still confronted with high levels of public and private debt, which act as brakes on the recovery. These brakes are coming off, but at different rates across countries.

“Emerging markets are slowing down from pre-crisis growth rates. They have to address some of their underlying structural problems, and take on structural reforms.”

Russia is paying the price for its seizure of Crimea and interference in Ukraine.

The IMF has radically cut its growth forecast since April in the largest downwards revision in the world.

The economy will grow by 0.2 per cent this year, down from 1.3 per cent, and by 1 per cent next year, down from 2.3 per cent.

“This reflects mainly a deterioration of business confidence, which has been aggravated by geopolitical tensions," said Mr Blanchard.

"The result has led to large capital outflows, and a near freeze in investment decisions.”

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The economic plan....steal savers earned and taxed money...inflation in everything bar wages...print to oblivion...transfer wealth to the asset rich...no new infrastructure...no me houses...open immigration policy to feed the ponzi.

Wasn't this labours plan and what caused the mess in the first place.

The sooner his bubble pops the better.

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Well these figures are valid until later they are downgraded to a negative figure, but by then no one will care.

It is propaganda at its worst.

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Could someone remind me how good the IMF's forecasts for the UK have been in the past?

Have they been as stunningly accurate as the OBR's?

Olivier Blanchard is spectacularly ignorant, even by the standards of his profession. He's chiefly famous for publishing a paper in August 2008 commending the current practice of macroeconomics - 'The state of macro is good.' - exactly one month before the entire financial system collapsed.

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...The International Monetary Fund now expects the UK to grow by 3.2 per cent this year and 2.7 per cent in 2015. The upward revision of 0.4 percentage points in 2014, and 0.2 percentage points in 2015, from the last forecast in April is the largest upgrade of any major developed economy for both years....

Wow, that's just AMAZING!

We're saved, praise be to the g-ideot bubble, long live the ponzi and imputed rents that seed our fabulous distorted GDP numbers (shh, but don't mention the every increasing 'D' word...).

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The UK's economy must be just about the only one holding up the world's declining economy as well as the declining Baltic Dry Index.



http://

www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-22/baltic-dry-index-collapses-18-month-lows-worst-july-1986

Edited by billybong

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Looks like Sky are supporting the tory election campaign:

http://news.sky.com/story/1307106/uk-economic-depression-to-be-declared-over

"UK Economic Depression To Be Declared 'Over'

The Office for National Statistics is expected to confirm the economy has surpassed its size at the start of the 2008 recession."
It's was a depression.
It still is.

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At some point there needs to be a serious discussion about why all this growth isn't trickling down (and most ordinary people's incomes are actually shrinking).

I won't hold my breath.

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At some point there needs to be a serious discussion about why all this growth isn't trickling down (and most ordinary people's incomes are actually shrinking).

I won't hold my breath.

It is primarily more debt and inflation - those who pay for that are the rump in the middle and bottom of any economy. When those two have destroyed another chunk of the economy it will all fall apart again.

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The Osborne-Carney Depression hasn't happened yet.

Yeah they aren't really making inroads into the deficit Let alone the Public sector net debt ccurrently at £1.2tn. I think there was another thread on here re the Ukraine situation in that imo an energy price spike would crash the economy. Also the boe note the economy is also more sensitive to rate rises. Whether there is scope to expand the public sector deficit from this position I do not know. Edited by Ash4781

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category_image_update_img.jpg

Behold Glorious Tractor Production Comrades !!

now it's all lovely jubby, they'd better raise those Interest rates quick

In a hole and still digging. :rolleyes:

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