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Foxtons Share Price And The Housing Market - Merged


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17 minutes ago, Option5 said:

I'd have thought the one with most debt to service. Countrywide?

Yeah probably. How on earth can a business which makes money from doing very little end up in debt!??! (Until the crash that is). Advertise house, sell house, take commission, rinse and repeat.  Idiots!

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1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

PurplePricks

 

368.38GBX10.12 (2.68%)

I am not sure Purple Bricks will do well out of the downturn. If you cannot sell your house a commission based deal is better than paying up front. I suspect we will soon be hearing sob stories about how Purple Bricks took hundreds of pounds off me and didn't sell my house. 

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4 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

I am not sure Purple Bricks will do well out of the downturn. If you cannot sell your house a commission based deal is better than paying up front. I suspect we will soon be hearing sob stories about how Purple Bricks took hundreds of pounds off me and didn't sell my house. 

If they allowed negative reviews to stay on Trustpilot you'd be reading them now..................

And don't forget the expensive conveyancing tie-in for those taking the no upfront fee option.

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55 minutes ago, thewig said:

infinite price falls of 2% would never take it to zero, infinite price falls of 99% would never take it to zero, just sayin

 

Let me reword.

A share falling in pennies, equivalent to the (initial) 2% fall, only has 50 days life ...

Its a shae newly listed stocks did not have a lemon rule attached to them.

Not just foxsh1t, but how many companies floated i nthe las t10 years are worth more now then the initial SP - Debs, various PE junk floats etc.

Maybe the market maker/float people ought to have a clause that they need to purchase back the share at ~80% of he float value in the first 5 years. Get the those investment baks really earning that ~20% cost of floating a company.

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I think Foxtons might be a good buy at some point soon. You have to remember that their revenue is generated by activity in the market, not necessarily high prices. Right now, it's clear the market has slowed drastically since the stamp duty changes last year and this has naturally fed into recent results and led to the decline of the share price. I think if we got a 20% fall in prices, you'd see a lot of people who are sitting on the sidelines starting to buy and generate commissions. Also as of last year (which was a bad year) Foxtons were cash flow positive and carried no debt. All they need to do is come out of this crisis alive (which I think there's a very good chance) and they will clean up.

Countrywide on the other hand, I would be very worried about. They carry huge debt which vulture funds hold. If there is even a sniff of a default, the bondholders will simply take the company away from shareholders.

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23 minutes ago, NuBrit said:

 I think if we got a 20% fall in prices, you'd see a lot of people who are sitting on the sidelines starting to buy and generate commissions.

Except that they won't, at least initially.  The market will seize up as we progress through anger, denial and bargaining.  There will be political panic, and shock waves in finance.  After maybe 12-18 months the flapping, weeping and a wailing will subside as we reach capitulation.  Then, if Foxtons still exist, and it pains me to say this, they will probably be a good buy.  But you'd better get your timing right - when the pros know something is a buy they move effing fast and so does the price.

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1 hour ago, NuBrit said:

. I think if we got a 20% fall in prices, you'd see a lot of people who are sitting on the sidelines starting to buy and generate commissions.

I am sitting on the sidelines and trust me I would want a lot more than 20% before I would get off my bum and start any Foxton-bothering. Anyone who wants a house but isn't buying because they don't like the prices won't like them any better with a few quid knocked; off they either want serious falls or they do something else with the money.

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10 hours ago, NuBrit said:

I think Foxtons might be a good buy at some point soon. You have to remember that their revenue is generated by activity in the market, not necessarily high prices. Right now, it's clear the market has slowed drastically since the stamp duty changes last year and this has naturally fed into recent results and led to the decline of the share price. I think if we got a 20% fall in prices, you'd see a lot of people who are sitting on the sidelines starting to buy and generate commissions. Also as of last year (which was a bad year) Foxtons were cash flow positive and carried no debt. All they need to do is come out of this crisis alive (which I think there's a very good chance) and they will clean up.

Countrywide on the other hand, I would be very worried about. They carry huge debt which vulture funds hold. If there is even a sniff of a default, the bondholders will simply take the company away from shareholders.

I agree with this. It's a going concern that's been hit by regulation changes and a stagnating market.

It's still a brand (however much I loathe it) and a proven business model that's not disappearing. Not sure I know when I'd have the nerve to buy though TBH.

Usually I just look at the dividends, which still don't look great.

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25 minutes ago, the_duke_of_hazzard said:

I agree with this. It's a going concern that's been hit by regulation changes and a stagnating market.

It's still a brand (however much I loathe it) and a proven business model that's not disappearing. Not sure I know when I'd have the nerve to buy though TBH.

Usually I just look at the dividends, which still don't look great.

Only floated on the stock market a few years ago, they're yet to see a true test through a bad period.

Even with no debt, I think the business model will only be viable until the older generations stop using them. The younger generations haven't got the same financial luxury as the boomers so will use whoever is the cheapest (aka online).

It's also Londoncentric and will suffer greatly from the letting agent fee restrictions that are proposed and the London downturn as a whole.

Nope I'll be staying well away and watching the fireworks from afar. Countless of other dividend paying investments that are way higher on the list.

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48 minutes ago, the_duke_of_hazzard said:

I agree with this. It's a going concern that's been hit by regulation changes and a stagnating market.

It's still a brand (however much I loathe it) and a proven business model that's not disappearing. Not sure I know when I'd have the nerve to buy though TBH.

Usually I just look at the dividends, which still don't look great.

Its incorporated. Whether or not its an ongoing concern is yet to be seen.

Yep, its brand. Like Drano or Rentokill or Anusol..

IMHO its a piece of PE junk,, of a business that will be destroyed,  flipped onto the stockmarket.

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5 hours ago, the_duke_of_hazzard said:

I agree with this. It's a going concern that's been hit by regulation changes and a stagnating market.

It's still a brand (however much I loathe it) and a proven business model that's not disappearing. Not sure I know when I'd have the nerve to buy though TBH.

Usually I just look at the dividends, which still don't look great.

Dividend will be cut within the next year I reckon. It's going to get worse for Foxtons in the short term, with letting income under pressure from the letting fee ban and from landlords deciding to save money on management charges. 

However, as tdoh says: It's still a brand (however much I loathe it)

The best thing that can happen to Foxtons is the current management gets cleared out and the board recognises the need to overhaul the business to catch up with changes in the market, especially on the lettings side. Basically it needs a Ryanair-type attitude reinvention where they woke up and told customers "Ok for years we didn't give a sh*t that you hated us but we're going to change, we're abolishing some fees, we're bringing in better tech and we're going to make life easier for you" [before Ryanair's latest wobble that is]. 

And for 68p 67p 66.5p a share you're getting a lot of potential upside in any recovery of sales volumes in one of the biggest property markets in the world. It's not remotely important whether house prices go up or down, as long as the market unfreezes. 

 

 

Edited by Patient London FTB
Reality
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1 hour ago, spyguy said:

Its incorporated. Whether or not its an ongoing concern is yet to be seen.

Yep, its brand. Like Drano or Rentokill or Anusol..

IMHO its a piece of PE junk,, of a business that will be destroyed,  flipped onto the stockmarket.

I always got the impression that Foxtons was something of an "in fashion" brand where posh people bought and sold their posh houses via the posh estate agent. This led to aspirational people doing the same. The Apple of the EA world.

Foxtons are good at making them feel special and supporting their outlook on the property market. However it only works when the "dinner party" set think they're winning.

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