Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Foxtons Share Price And The Housing Market - Merged


Recommended Posts

0
HOLA441

Back in positive territory since the lloyds announcement, they must be expecting a tory u-turn on cutting back lending and inflating house prices even further out of reach of sanity.

I wouldn't put anything past Osborne, I cannot believe what that man has been allowed to do to our futures.

On the contrary, I would've thought the decision not to sell the taxpayer's stake in a big mortgage bank was a bearish signal. I'd say it'd be more likely, not less, to loosen lending again if it were out of state ownership.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 2.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

1
HOLA442

On the contrary, I would've thought the decision not to sell the taxpayer's stake in a big mortgage bank was a bearish signal. I'd say it'd be more likely, not less, to loosen lending again if it were out of state ownership.

Well, that;s the thing at the mo, reality has been suspended.

Bad news is good news and good news is bad.

It's been the same since the QE started.

Bad news seems to mean they "markets" ( aka the thieving spivs in london ) get prolonged government support to the party continues and good news means the government might be forced to withdraw that support so panic sets in.

I also suspect, behind the scenes at Lloyds there has been a lot of loose lending encouraged by Osborne and co.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2
HOLA443
3
HOLA444
4
HOLA445
5
HOLA446

All similar graphs, peak around March, trending down ever since. March being, oh lets see...when MMR was stopped....when FLS dried up a bit maybe too ?

I'm willing to accept Foxtons is over priced from the IPO and hence why it's dropping but it seems a bit coincidental that these other shares are following the same pattern.

I hear you Count.

I will try again.

Clearly all the stocks involved in UK residential property (Foxtons, Wimpy et al) are falling; the stock market is getting incrementally worried about the housing market. I am not disputing that fact.

The point I am making is these stocks, whether it is Foxtons or Taylor Wimpy or anything else are not pricing in a decline in house prices yet.

I know Taylor Wimpy very well, I owned some in 2011-2013*. The stock is down 15% since march. On the day the housing market peaked in September 2007 the stock was already down 50% from the peak. So Taylor wimpy is NOT pricing in a decline in house prices. Taylor wimpy needs to go to about 55p (from 113p) before that is the case! (Trading on 1.6x book today but should de-rate to 0.8x or so to price the peak).

Just like Foxtons needing to go to about 170p (down to 11x PE) to price in the top now.

My point is this; if this is it for the housing market then these stocks will go down a lot more. What if July 2014 was the peak for London? Looking at some of the threads and data points showing up on this forum the city looks like it might be behind the curve. Unless Carney gets scared and has another u-turn on policy to prop up the market. That is a risky bet, but it seems to be where the bulk of the chips are currently placed.

*since I don't have a house and I wanted to "hedge" myself in a reasonably priced asset, as of Q1 2013 TW was no longer a reasonably priced asset

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6
HOLA447

I know Taylor Wimpy very well, I owned some in 2011-2013*. The stock is down 15% since march. On the day the housing market peaked in September 2007 the stock was already down 50% from the peak.

My point is, I have already read, somewhere not sure if it was on here, that the big builders share price slid well before the Credit Crunch Panic, which you have confirmed, i.e. they were a leading indicator for the crash ( someone knew what was coming and/or sales had collapsed ).

It looks very much like this pattern is repeating.

Time will tell but if they continue to slide then it's a sure bet by that something serious is going on.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7
HOLA448

This made me laugh:

Last 3 trade, spot anything ? Who, what would buy 5 shares and why at an increased price ?

( A meansautomatic, O: ordinary and UT: Uncorssing trade )

Date Time Trade Prc Volume Buy/Sell Bid Ask Value
14-Aug-14 08:04:16 256.00 5 Buy* 254.70 256.00 12.80 A
13-Aug-14 16:35:55 254.75 13,294 Sell* 254.70 256.20 33.87k O
13-Aug-14 16:35:20 254.70 26,096 Sell* 254.70 255.20 66.47k UT
Edited by TheCountOfNowhere
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8
HOLA449
9
HOLA4410
10
HOLA4411
11
HOLA4412
12
HOLA4413

This is not advice.

The 2013 financial report lists The bulk of their assests are goodwill and intangible assets which is effectively the brand. See note 15. The intangible brand asset is generated from a discounted cashflow forecast based on sales, lettings, cost expectations for a couple of years. Then a percentage growth rate is applied in perptuity as the assets as infinite life. These cashflows then get discounted to present value from what I can tell.

This is an interesting thread. Maybe some others can do the heavy thinking? I will have a look at the workings in note 15 for the £99mn brand value. Not sure on the £20mn goodwill. (142mn net assets in this 2013 report)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13
HOLA4414

This is not advice.

The 2013 financial report lists The bulk of their assests are goodwill and intangible assets which is effectively the brand. See note 15. The intangible brand asset is generated from a discounted cashflow forecast based on sales, lettings, cost expectations for a couple of years. Then a percentage growth rate is applied in perptuity as the assets as infinite life. These cashflows then get discounted to present value from what I can tell.

This is an interesting thread. Maybe some others can do the heavy thinking? I will have a look at the workings in note 15 for the £99mn brand value. Not sure on the £20mn goodwill. (142mn net assets in this 2013 report)

Sounds good.

I think readers here will also like the "principal risks" section where I read that macroecoomic risk has decreased year on year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14
HOLA4415

This is not advice.

The 2013 financial report lists The bulk of their assests are goodwill and intangible assets which is effectively the brand. See note 15. The intangible brand asset is generated from a discounted cashflow forecast based on sales, lettings, cost expectations for a couple of years. Then a percentage growth rate is applied in perptuity as the assets as infinite life. These cashflows then get discounted to present value from what I can tell.

This is an interesting thread.

Ohhhhh...I thought it was the

lets all laugh at the idiots who bought into london mega bubble thread

or even the

Woohoo Foxtons is collapsing thread. No one much here likes foxtons so we've all got the jelly and ice cream at the ready for the day they are no more.

:ph34r:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15
HOLA4416
16
HOLA4417
17
HOLA4418
18
HOLA4419
19
HOLA4420
20
HOLA4421
21
HOLA4422
22
HOLA4423
23
HOLA4424
24
HOLA4425

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.




×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information