mewParadigm Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 Back in positive territory since the lloyds announcement, they must be expecting a tory u-turn on cutting back lending and inflating house prices even further out of reach of sanity. I wouldn't put anything past Osborne, I cannot believe what that man has been allowed to do to our futures. On the contrary, I would've thought the decision not to sell the taxpayer's stake in a big mortgage bank was a bearish signal. I'd say it'd be more likely, not less, to loosen lending again if it were out of state ownership. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 On the contrary, I would've thought the decision not to sell the taxpayer's stake in a big mortgage bank was a bearish signal. I'd say it'd be more likely, not less, to loosen lending again if it were out of state ownership. Well, that;s the thing at the mo, reality has been suspended. Bad news is good news and good news is bad. It's been the same since the QE started. Bad news seems to mean they "markets" ( aka the thieving spivs in london ) get prolonged government support to the party continues and good news means the government might be forced to withdraw that support so panic sets in. I also suspect, behind the scenes at Lloyds there has been a lot of loose lending encouraged by Osborne and co. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mewParadigm Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 Caught the attention of the Fool: Three Property Plays Trading At Rock Bottom Valuationshttps://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/three-property-plays-trading-rock-115811961.html And I quote "for canny investors this has presented an opportunity". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 Caught the attention of the Fool: Three Property Plays Trading At Rock Bottom Valuationshttps://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/three-property-plays-trading-rock-115811961.html And I quote "for canny investors this has presented an opportunity". Rock bottom...I suspect not Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 Caught the attention of the Fool: Three Property Plays Trading At Rock Bottom Valuationshttps://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/three-property-plays-trading-rock-115811961.html And I quote "for canny investors this has presented an opportunity". The Fool? Are any of those buy and hold nutjobs still long the FTSE from 1999? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bankstersparadise Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 All similar graphs, peak around March, trending down ever since. March being, oh lets see...when MMR was stopped....when FLS dried up a bit maybe too ? I'm willing to accept Foxtons is over priced from the IPO and hence why it's dropping but it seems a bit coincidental that these other shares are following the same pattern. I hear you Count. I will try again. Clearly all the stocks involved in UK residential property (Foxtons, Wimpy et al) are falling; the stock market is getting incrementally worried about the housing market. I am not disputing that fact. The point I am making is these stocks, whether it is Foxtons or Taylor Wimpy or anything else are not pricing in a decline in house prices yet. I know Taylor Wimpy very well, I owned some in 2011-2013*. The stock is down 15% since march. On the day the housing market peaked in September 2007 the stock was already down 50% from the peak. So Taylor wimpy is NOT pricing in a decline in house prices. Taylor wimpy needs to go to about 55p (from 113p) before that is the case! (Trading on 1.6x book today but should de-rate to 0.8x or so to price the peak). Just like Foxtons needing to go to about 170p (down to 11x PE) to price in the top now. My point is this; if this is it for the housing market then these stocks will go down a lot more. What if July 2014 was the peak for London? Looking at some of the threads and data points showing up on this forum the city looks like it might be behind the curve. Unless Carney gets scared and has another u-turn on policy to prop up the market. That is a risky bet, but it seems to be where the bulk of the chips are currently placed. *since I don't have a house and I wanted to "hedge" myself in a reasonably priced asset, as of Q1 2013 TW was no longer a reasonably priced asset Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 (edited) I know Taylor Wimpy very well, I owned some in 2011-2013*. The stock is down 15% since march. On the day the housing market peaked in September 2007 the stock was already down 50% from the peak. My point is, I have already read, somewhere not sure if it was on here, that the big builders share price slid well before the Credit Crunch Panic, which you have confirmed, i.e. they were a leading indicator for the crash ( someone knew what was coming and/or sales had collapsed ). It looks very much like this pattern is repeating. Time will tell but if they continue to slide then it's a sure bet by that something serious is going on. Edited August 13, 2014 by TheCountOfNowhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted August 14, 2014 Share Posted August 14, 2014 (edited) This made me laugh: Last 3 trade, spot anything ? Who, what would buy 5 shares and why at an increased price ? ( A meansautomatic, O: ordinary and UT: Uncorssing trade ) Date Time Trade Prc Volume Buy/Sell Bid Ask Value 14-Aug-14 08:04:16 256.00 5 Buy* 254.70 256.00 12.80 A 13-Aug-14 16:35:55 254.75 13,294 Sell* 254.70 256.20 33.87k O 13-Aug-14 16:35:20 254.70 26,096 Sell* 254.70 255.20 66.47k UT Edited August 14, 2014 by TheCountOfNowhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frizzers Posted August 14, 2014 Share Posted August 14, 2014 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eddie_George Posted August 14, 2014 Share Posted August 14, 2014 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted August 14, 2014 Share Posted August 14, 2014 I can see a trend What is the "oops" for ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurzel Of Highbridge Posted August 14, 2014 Share Posted August 14, 2014 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ash4781 Posted August 14, 2014 Share Posted August 14, 2014 This is not advice. The 2013 financial report lists The bulk of their assests are goodwill and intangible assets which is effectively the brand. See note 15. The intangible brand asset is generated from a discounted cashflow forecast based on sales, lettings, cost expectations for a couple of years. Then a percentage growth rate is applied in perptuity as the assets as infinite life. These cashflows then get discounted to present value from what I can tell. This is an interesting thread. Maybe some others can do the heavy thinking? I will have a look at the workings in note 15 for the £99mn brand value. Not sure on the £20mn goodwill. (142mn net assets in this 2013 report) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mewParadigm Posted August 14, 2014 Share Posted August 14, 2014 This is not advice. The 2013 financial report lists The bulk of their assests are goodwill and intangible assets which is effectively the brand. See note 15. The intangible brand asset is generated from a discounted cashflow forecast based on sales, lettings, cost expectations for a couple of years. Then a percentage growth rate is applied in perptuity as the assets as infinite life. These cashflows then get discounted to present value from what I can tell. This is an interesting thread. Maybe some others can do the heavy thinking? I will have a look at the workings in note 15 for the £99mn brand value. Not sure on the £20mn goodwill. (142mn net assets in this 2013 report) Sounds good. I think readers here will also like the "principal risks" section where I read that macroecoomic risk has decreased year on year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted August 14, 2014 Share Posted August 14, 2014 This is not advice. The 2013 financial report lists The bulk of their assests are goodwill and intangible assets which is effectively the brand. See note 15. The intangible brand asset is generated from a discounted cashflow forecast based on sales, lettings, cost expectations for a couple of years. Then a percentage growth rate is applied in perptuity as the assets as infinite life. These cashflows then get discounted to present value from what I can tell. This is an interesting thread. Ohhhhh...I thought it was the lets all laugh at the idiots who bought into london mega bubble thread or even the Woohoo Foxtons is collapsing thread. No one much here likes foxtons so we've all got the jelly and ice cream at the ready for the day they are no more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted August 14, 2014 Share Posted August 14, 2014 Share price shooting up today. London market is fixed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted August 14, 2014 Share Posted August 14, 2014 What does this firm own? Offices? Leased? Cars? Leased? Where is their moat? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Democorruptcy Posted August 14, 2014 Share Posted August 14, 2014 Share price shooting up today. London market is fixed. It started climbing yesterday morning with the inflation report and Carney's new reason to keep interest rates lower for longer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted August 14, 2014 Share Posted August 14, 2014 It started climbing yesterday morning with the inflation report and Carney's new reason to keep interest rates lower for longer. It'll double overnight the day he announces the UK equivalent of 'Abenomics'. Let's hope we get a crash first. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted August 14, 2014 Share Posted August 14, 2014 What about when Europe announces QE? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Moderators Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 sorry about that - when I moved it back it moved to dead link - so had to move it back and cancel dead link. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 sorry about that - when I moved it back it moved to dead link - so had to move it back and cancel dead link. Thank you Mr. Spock. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 Thx Mods Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 Share Price: 284.10 Bid: 284.70 Ask: 285.60 Change: 13.30 (+4.91%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 Share Price: 284.10 Bid: 284.70 Ask: 285.60 Change: 13.30 (+4.91%) Ukraine worries have receded, that's today's narrative. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.