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Foxtons Share Price And The Housing Market - Merged


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I see here earlier in the week that whilst mortgage applications are down the average value is up. This can be explained by a lack of applications and banks having a huge amount of cash to lend therefore relaxing lending standards just to get the money out of the door.

There's a whole bunch of people relying on these transaction numbers holding up including the government, it's not just EA's.

Expect lots of propaganda on overdrive - I should think a new government policy will be introduced by the end of the month..

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I think it's quite obvious to most that as debt grows exponentially interest rates of that debt have to tend towards Zero. IMO when the debt stops growing interest rates will rocket and there will be a proper financial collapse.

What was this idiot predicting 5 years ago? Was he correct then?

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I just wondered if labour were pushing the mansion tax agenda and mooting relaxed building on greenbelt to ***** the bubble prior to the election.

Hah, like it - that's my kind of tactics. Admittedly those type of tactics (feckin over the opponent) don't get me very far but it does give me lots of enjoyment. I play a mean game of UNO :-)

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Hah, like it - that's my kind of tactics. Admittedly those type of tactics (feckin over the opponent) don't get me very far but it does give me lots of enjoyment. I play a mean game of UNO :-)

I think it would be a great political strategic thinking if it was the case (I don't think Labour are that smart or ruthless mind you) i.e. Announce a range of super agressive London based policy measures, pop the bubble (they must know it's a bubble) and then back away from them as the election approaches and asthe bubble deflates.

They would have to be careful not to isloate potential voters, so policies targeting the London rich and foreign investors would be key. They might even be able to threaten to massively increase the housing supply in London too (as long it was just in London) as I think I read there are now more people in the capital wanting lower house prices in the capital based on recent polling. Foreign investors would run for the hills, there are so many new builds in the capital coming to market, many bought on foreign margin and I could really see that being the thing that pops it.

There is no way the deflating bubble would be issolated to new builds and high end properties, and the deflating bubble might even spread outside of the capital in time for the election. It would be so easy to pin the blame on George Osborne with 'help to buy' shattering the ecnomic competence argument.

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Some juicy pearls here.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/constructionandproperty/11181672/Foxtons-hit-by-sharp-slowdown-in-London-housing-market.html

'Aymen Azizi, trader at Accendo Markets, remained sanguine about Foxtons' warning, saying that London's property market was "bulletproof".

"The stock is getting punished this morning but savvy traders are looking for an entry point noting that the third quarter is rarely the best [period] for estate agents," he said.'

The clue is in his name methinks

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Some juicy pearls here.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/constructionandproperty/11181672/Foxtons-hit-by-sharp-slowdown-in-London-housing-market.html

'Aymen Azizi, trader at Accendo Markets, remained sanguine about Foxtons' warning, saying that London's property market was "bulletproof".

"The stock is getting punished this morning but savvy traders are looking for an entry point noting that the third quarter is rarely the best [period] for estate agents," he said.'

The clue is in his name methinks

It's started to collapse in April. ..only someone up to the top of their top hat in London housing would try to deny what's obvious to the rest of the country.

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Foxtons going down again.

Why isnt countrywide going down though? Thats annoying!

They are down about 25% since April.

They reported good profits and the price bounced a couple of months ago, that's wiped out now.

They are not london centric and their business wont be as badly affected as Foxtons as london collapses.

The one that annoys me is the big builders....they are stubbornly staying supported by our taxes. :lol:

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Nervous London market after Foxtons shares tumble

Foxtons has been the stock market whipping-boy for a flailing central London housing market, losing up to 20 per cent of its share value at the worst of trading yesterday as new figures consolidated the gloom in prime areas of the capital.

The agency, which has over 50 branches across the capital so is unusually vulnerable to concern about London housing issues, has issued a profits warning saying it has endured a "sharp and recent" slowdown in sales.

It said that while it had performed exceptionally well in the nine-months to June, the market had cooled dramatically more recently with quarterly sales commissions down 7.8 per cent on the same period last year as reduced sale volumes offset price increases.

Foxtons’ chief executive Nic Budden insisted: “Despite the impact that market uncertainty is having on transaction volumes, we are continuing with our clear strategy, centralised business model and steady roll-out programme which is delivering higher market share.”

This comes only 48 hours after a stark briefing from high-end agency Strutt & Parker after figures showed that its Q3 figures for 2014 in prime central London revealed a 20.8 per cent decrease in the number of homes sold below £2m, compared to the same quarter last year.

Even worse were its figures for homes in the £2m to £5m range - down 27.1 per cent.

The agency has sugared the pill by saying that when looked at over the longer-term these figures are not as drastic as they appear - the volume of transactions is actually up by 3.1 per cent compared to Strutts’ rolling five year quarterly average.

Meanwhile data for the rest of the UK showed that mortgage activity dropped in September compared with a year ago - another sign of a cooling market.

The number of mortgages approved for house purchases was down 10 per cent compared with a year ago according to the British Bankers' Association. Approvals had been relatively high at the start of the year but have slowed since June.

There were 39,271 approvals for house purchases in September, the BBA says.

http://www.estateagenttoday.co.uk/1506-nervous-london-market-after-foxtons-shares-tumble

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Foxtons catches a cold and other agents sneeze

Foxtons’ share price fell heavily yesterday after it issued a profits warning because of “sharp and recent slowing of volumes” in the London property market.

The firm said it expected sales volumes in the second half of this year will be “significantly below levels during the same period last year”.

Foxtons posted revenue of £39.9m for the three months to the end of September, down from £41.1m during the same period last year.

The company also said that in the three months to September 30, sales commissions fell 7.8% to £16.4m, down from £17.8m a year ago, and lettings revenue was flat at £21.9m.

The company blamed a combination of economic uncertainty, tighter mortgage lending conditions, and “mismatches between the price expectations of buyers and sellers”.

Foxtons now expects this year’s ebitda (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) to fall below that of last year.

For 2013, it reported ebitda of £49.6m. This year’s earnings will be below that.

However, Foxtons stressed that it is far from losing money.

Nic Budden, chief executive, said the firm will press on with its “clear strategy, centralised business model and steady roll-out programme”.

He said: “Foxtons remains highly profitable, cash generative and debt free, and therefore well positioned to deliver further cash returns to shareholders, building on the £28.1m of ordinary and special dividends paid since our IPO.”

Foxtons floated on the London stock market in August last year at 230p.

Yesterday, its shares finished 40p down at 165p, a fall of almost 20%.

Foxtons’ announcement that it had caught a bit of a cold meant that other property shares also sneezed.

Most of the property shares that initially dropped sharply picked up during the day – but still finished down.

Savills’ shares ended 3.31% down and Countrywide was down 3.85%.

* The profits warning comes despite data showing the huge success that Foxtons undoubtedly is.

According to statistics compiled by newly launched agent comparison site GetAgent and released to Eye yesterday, over the last six months Foxtons has sold approximately 4,005 properties at an average asking price of £681,323 with a turnaround time of 47 days.

London’s property market may not be as hot today as it was over the first six months of 2014.

However, Foxtons, with 52 branches [51 area-focused branches plus one dedicated to new homes] out of London’s total of 6,470 estate agency branches, certainly has a large presence – and impact – in the capital.

The firm currently has 4,350 live, available listings (ie, excluding properties under offer) on Zoopla and 4,047 on Rightmove, which accounts for approximately 7% of London property marketed online today.

(Data accurate as of 3pm yesterday, Thursday October 23.)

http://www.propertyindustryeye.com/foxtons-sneezes-agents-catch-cold/
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So 160p or so. Yet again TA suggested this. Months before there were obvious wider problems the F share price was trending down. I can't remember now when it was but it was months ago I said TA suggests 160p, when it was still around 300p.

Nothing was said to be guaranteed only that if x happened then 160 could happen.

Was 15% off yesterday the capitulation? Next week or two will be instructive. Probably horizontal channel for months now till market shows its hand to upside or downside.

60% is a collapse and it is unlikely to be solely to do with whatever is going on inside the company.

Add Strutts&Parker yesterday in EA Today.

Add 10% down in mortgage approvals in September.

Chinese prices fell for 5th month in a row,

The bears are in charge for now. Of course the elite will not want this for long and they will take action. The question is will they be able to do what they have always done before the next global economic shock? If not, the multi decade bull (sh1t) mkt is toast.

But on verra, as always.

Edited by Killer Bunny
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