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Foxtons Share Price And The Housing Market - Merged


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HOLA441
On 1/11/2017 at 8:21 PM, Bland Unsight said:

How close are we to the point where what Foxtons will really need to breathe some life back into the business will be a rapid and severe downwards correction in house prices and the restoration of high transaction levels in the housing market, which are only possible at lower prices?

Their model of getting instructions is to give the highest valuation, so it would be interesting to see if they would do this

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The regular weekly property roundup I get sent has just arrived...The Wilsons aka 'tycoon' even get a mention! 

More bulk opportunities in London as developers look elsewhere

PropertyBrain Friday Roundup 13/01/17

A succinct weekly take on the London property market and a roundup of headlines from the PropertyBrain team. Subscribe to the Friday Roundup here: http://pbra.in/1Gli7UL

HEADLINES

Here's a roundup of what we think are the big news stories this week:

  • Berkeley has opened a new division in Birmingham - its first venture outside the South-East in more than a decade - as London's luxury home market wanes. This was in line with their recent land purchases of sites in outer London and the home counties, rather than inner London. However, Berkeley was quick to reiterate that this did not represent a reduction of its business in London and the south-east.The company has also said that it will focus on modular construction, also known as prefabrication, a process where a house can be largely built off-site and then completed on site within 14 weeks.
  • The UK's largest housebuilder, Barratt Developments, has reported a drop in home completions in the second half of 2016. It completed 6% fewer houses and apartments than a year earlier at 7,180, while it has also begun selling off London homes in bulk to investors to help mitigate a drop in demand. Despite price cuts in the capital, Barratt is reported to be on track to meet targets of "modest" growth in volumes for the full year, signalling a 7% year-on-year increase in pre-tax profits.
  • Shares in the estate agency Savills rose almost 10 per cent on Thursday after the group said overseas investment in UK real estate had helped it beat expectations for 2016. It had gained market share in commercial investment transactions in the UK, "primarily as a result of the post-referendum interest emanating from overseas".Its UK homes division performed better than anticipated as well, partly due to international buyers drawn to UK housing by currency shifts. Savills is now trading close to their pre-referendum levels after a 30% drop previously.
     
  • There was mixed news at Foxtons however, with a trading update highlighting the drop in profits for the group. Annual profit is expected to halve as a result of a slowdown in the London property market, as average prices across London and transaction volumes dropped over the year. Foxtons' letting business, which accounts for more than half of revenue, may be affected by a proposed ban on charging letting fees to tenants, as announced in the recent Autumn Statement. Foxtonsexpects trading conditions to remain challenging in 2017.
  • Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan has intervened in two high-rise housing projects in Tottenham Hale and Harrow after local authorities refused planning permission. Sadiq Khan has the power to "call in" such decisions and overrule local councils, in order to address the housing shortage in London. According to government statistics, it is estimated that at least 50,000 a year are needed to house the rising population.
     
  • The Financial Times reported that UK insurers, pension funds and trusts controlling £4tn of assets have pulled more than £31bn from equities and bonds in the 12 months to the end of September, marking the heaviest withdrawals from asset markets since 1987. Alternative investments, such as private equity and property are poised to benefit in the current environment as investors seek to "harvest the illiquidity premium of alternatives".

And finally...

  • A property tycoon in the UK has sparked a backlash by setting out a list of 11 rules for people who would not be able to rent out one of his 700 properties from 2017, including no single mums or dads, single adults or smokers. He also banned "battered wives" and tenants with children under 18. He ended off with: "Not all tenants on Benefits are a Problem, but all problems are on benefits".
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2 hours ago, BobbyZZZ said:

The regular weekly property roundup I get sent has just arrived...The Wilsons aka 'tycoon' even get a mention! 

More bulk opportunities in London as developers look elsewhere

PropertyBrain Friday Roundup 13/01/17

A succinct weekly take on the London property market and a roundup of headlines from the PropertyBrain team. Subscribe to the Friday Roundup here: http://pbra.in/1Gli7UL

HEADLINES

Here's a roundup of what we think are the big news stories this week:

  • Berkeley has opened a new division in Birmingham - its first venture outside the South-East in more than a decade - as London's luxury home market wanes. This was in line with their recent land purchases of sites in outer London and the home counties, rather than inner London. However, Berkeley was quick to reiterate that this did not represent a reduction of its business in London and the south-east.The company has also said that it will focus on modular construction, also known as prefabrication, a process where a house can be largely built off-site and then completed on site within 14 weeks.
  • The UK's largest housebuilder, Barratt Developments, has reported a drop in home completions in the second half of 2016. It completed 6% fewer houses and apartments than a year earlier at 7,180, while it has also begun selling off London homes in bulk to investors to help mitigate a drop in demand. Despite price cuts in the capital, Barratt is reported to be on track to meet targets of "modest" growth in volumes for the full year, signalling a 7% year-on-year increase in pre-tax profits.
  • Shares in the estate agency Savills rose almost 10 per cent on Thursday after the group said overseas investment in UK real estate had helped it beat expectations for 2016. It had gained market share in commercial investment transactions in the UK, "primarily as a result of the post-referendum interest emanating from overseas".Its UK homes division performed better than anticipated as well, partly due to international buyers drawn to UK housing by currency shifts. Savills is now trading close to their pre-referendum levels after a 30% drop previously.
     
  • There was mixed news at Foxtons however, with a trading update highlighting the drop in profits for the group. Annual profit is expected to halve as a result of a slowdown in the London property market, as average prices across London and transaction volumes dropped over the year. Foxtons' letting business, which accounts for more than half of revenue, may be affected by a proposed ban on charging letting fees to tenants, as announced in the recent Autumn Statement. Foxtonsexpects trading conditions to remain challenging in 2017.
  • Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan has intervened in two high-rise housing projects in Tottenham Hale and Harrow after local authorities refused planning permission. Sadiq Khan has the power to "call in" such decisions and overrule local councils, in order to address the housing shortage in London. According to government statistics, it is estimated that at least 50,000 a year are needed to house the rising population.
     
  • The Financial Times reported that UK insurers, pension funds and trusts controlling £4tn of assets have pulled more than £31bn from equities and bonds in the 12 months to the end of September, marking the heaviest withdrawals from asset markets since 1987. Alternative investments, such as private equity and property are poised to benefit in the current environment as investors seek to "harvest the illiquidity premium of alternatives".

And finally...

  • A property tycoon in the UK has sparked a backlash by setting out a list of 11 rules for people who would not be able to rent out one of his 700 properties from 2017, including no single mums or dads, single adults or smokers. He also banned "battered wives" and tenants with children under 18. He ended off with: "Not all tenants on Benefits are a Problem, but all problems are on benefits".

" to house the rising population legal/illegal immigrants "

 

 

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In the interests of remaining data driven, I should add the Savills results http://www.investegate.co.uk/savills-plc/rns/pre-close-trading-update/201701120700059475T/

"In the UK, we saw increased market share in commercial investment transactions, primarily as a result of the post-referendum interest emanating from overseas. In addition, notwithstanding a slower December, our UK residential business performed rather better than anticipated, with the top end of the market showing similar currency-related drivers of investment activity from international buyers. These factors largely mitigated the anticipated reduction in transactional activity during the year."

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Lol Countrywide getting creamed! http://www.investegate.co.uk/countrywide-plc--cwd-/rns/trading-statement/201701130700050777U/ Savills a potential outlier?

"As anticipated, the underlying level of market transactions in Q4 continued to run below 2015 and we continue to expect full year 2016 market volumes to reflect a drop of circa 6% on 2015 levels...

It is pleasing to report modest full year revenue growth against the backdrop of a challenging residential sales market.  Our Retail and London divisions were impacted by the lower market volumes which were partially offset by a strong performance from our Lettings business.  It is encouraging to note that both Financial Services and Surveying reported profit growth notwithstanding the external environment."

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On 1/11/2017 at 10:17 AM, tomandlu said:

It's just occurred to me that EAs are going to be badly hit by S24. Any LL at the edge is going to want to get rid of any avoidable expenditure*, and will take over managing the property to get rid of the fees.

* in theory, none of this is great for tenants, as the LLs will be avoiding repairs as well, and it will leave renters completely in the hands of amateurs. In practice, that was pretty much the situation anyway.

Let's get it over with then.  It has already been a nightmare.   HPC.  Get some steel and see it through these 'theories of being bad for tenants' to a better future.

Wipe out the overleveraged speculator people-farmers.  Also the letting agent fee changes are great, for as noted by a few hpcers, with the LL paying, they will be more inclined to try and do everything to keep a tenant happy and in place.   Some tenants won't go through a LL who self-manages, (or require a discount from LL is self-managing) and so no contact-point for tenant with Letting Agent - and also self-managing LLs not able to provide extra tenant reassurances provided such licensed bodies  ARLA, NALS, UKALA, / (SAFE AGENT.)

S24, just a change to the BTLers excessively generous tax relief, and even in 2020, still getting 20% relief that any would-be owner does not get.  BTL, Not a business (BTL in own name) but an investment that by its nature requires some activity to maintain.

If the BTLers have left themselves in position of having no monies to maintain and make repairs, then they have no place in housing provision whatsoever.

The BTLers who have left themselves in such positions (no monies for repairs) will find there are other landlords who are financially stable and that in competition for rents.  If rental not up to standard, they are going to find it difficult to get £1,200 a month vs another landlord who has a far superior rental on market for same or lower asking rental price.   Voids, and sell for lower prices.  HPC.

On 8/4/2015 at 7:39 PM, Digsby said:

I've just been musing on what it is that winds me up so much about the bleatings of this 118 bunch, and I think it is this:

They proclaim that the government have let their tenants down by forcing rents up, but it is they who have done so by putting themselves in a position where they cannot provide the services they charge for, which is fundamentally a security of tenure free from the risks from the ravages of house prices, interest rates, mortgage regulation and so on.

So an element of rental fees is insurance, and they have failed to provide that insurance by indirectly exposing their tenants to that which they should be shielding them from.

They take these risks on behalf of the tenants, and a good landlord should themselves either be unexposed to these risks, or be willing to absorb them, and yet I have seen posts proclaiming that their tenants accepted the risks through tenancy, which is rubbish.

Frugal Git, on 14 Jul 2015 - 10:50 PM, said:snapback.png

It seems that you cannot or will not accept that borrow to let is just one type of business, and thus had its own unique risk profile. You don't have to consider every eventuality, no. But you should be at least marginally intelligent enough to recognise the clear ones if you go into any business.

The risks with borrowing to let were entirely obvious from the beginning - the biggest of all being the eventual taxation target. From the point of view of the business side of it - not the ethics, that was the *first* thing that came to mind for me when discussing its 'merits' with people on that basis.

Playing with leverage was a close second, but that is beside the point. Legislation legislation legislation.

If it was obvious to someone who had no desire to do it, wtf were people who actually signed up to borrow money smoking if they couldn't spot that their terms were more favourable then they were getting on their own home? Did they genuinely think that was fair? That it wasn't eventually going to be spotted?

Especially due to the not inconsequential nature of it growing out of control site to the previous favourable terms, and housing being unlike running a widget business in that whilst a widget is a discretionary purchase, a place to live isn't. And the general public tend to eventually get angry when their ability to shelter themselved becomes increasingly difficult.

Building is part of a solution - no doubt. But levelling the playing field, rather than just building on it is even better.

 

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I just don't buy the idea that foreign investors taking advantage of the low pound are propping prices up. Haven't these people looked at the long term trend and realised that apart from a couple of bounces, the pound has been losing value for years now? Given that currency depreciation to stoke inflation is pretty much central bank policy around the world, you'd have to be a fool to think the pound is going to do anything but continue the slide - unless it's a bet against the UK - that we won't be able to hold our currency down for much longer.

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On 1/11/2017 at 8:21 PM, Bland Unsight said:

How close are we to the point where what Foxtons will really need to breathe some life back into the business will be a rapid and severe downwards correction in house prices and the restoration of high transaction levels in the housing market, which are only possible at lower prices?

 

On 1/9/2017 at 7:46 PM, darkmarket said:

Plenty of sideways doesn't guarantee a dramatic move. This is all just idle speculation. As The Masked Tulip points out, there are no signs of a major move in the technical analysis, and on fundamentals there hasn't been any reason for one either. It's trivial to say that if earnings collapse, the share price will too, but it means nothing when it's based on zero insight. The only reasonable suspicion currently is a false floor under the share price from corporate buybacks.

Sorry to say we'll have to keep waiting for the demise of Foxtons.

 

Don't think I could ever bring myself to invest in an EA/Letting Agent.   Know much of the background of Foxtons in recent years... the main guy selling up at such high price, the company who bought it then going on to lose partial control (?).  The flotation.

However vs Foxtons, I don't like another big EA on the market (with share prices that have crashed from highs in recent times - they look too much like a roll-up to me, having bought up many independent EAs and associated property businesses along the way - so that the monies flow to a smaller group of people - although I have done minimal research on that company).   Whereas Foxtons has <60 branches?

I can bring myself to invest in the banks because like so many others in the real world, I see them as a neutral when it comes to mortgages, facilitating free-will debt decisions by adult market participants, who choose to outbid others in the market to lay claim to homes - and where they buyers puts down deposit and the bank has a first charge.   And I have invested in hope of HPC and more prosperous homeowner future, with fresh mortgage lending on lower house prices, and a more prosperous future.

Think we will reach a point where the Estate Agent are important, vs web-based ones, and where agents have to 'sell' houses.   Where the skills of selling become important.   And then later, after HPC, hopefully higher sale transaction levels, for decades to come.  People moving houses regularly, as in the 1980s.   

Vs today of showing Bomad powered buyers around with there let me pay extreme high price attitudes, 'no HPC, dribs and drabs at best' - or... hopefully slowing out now, would-be BTLers who have been outbidding all in sight for the ForeverHPI.

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16 minutes ago, Digsby said:

I just don't buy the idea that foreign investors taking advantage of the low pound are propping prices up. Haven't these people looked at the long term trend and realised that apart from a couple of bounces, the pound has been losing value for years now? Given that currency depreciation to stoke inflation is pretty much central bank policy around the world, you'd have to be a fool to think the pound is going to do anything but continue the slide - unless it's a bet against the UK - that we won't be able to hold our currency down for much longer.

A little bird at Savills has been telling me about Chinese money (recent) after I told him about the capital controls. May well overlap with the surge in bitcoin (return of asset rather than return on asset)? However I have no way of verifying or knowing whether it is a sustainable trend. 

It is interesting to see their results diverging though.

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HOLA4412

I'm going to view a house tomorrow Venger. Doubt if I will buy it, except for a huge discount.

Bland is correct, from what little I have seen, Foxtons are in the precise predicament I predicted - sales are massively down, letting fees are not- but they will be. It's almost as if TPTB have said: "your job is to sell - if you're not going to sell, you can bugger off and be replaced by someone who will".

Lettings is about to become a highly competitive business with very narrow margins. As it should be. One big issue with the market at the moment is that with so many agents and so few vendors, agents are over-valuing properties to get the business. They don't often sell at those prices but once expectations are set, it's hard to lower them.

As for investing in an estate agent, it's hard to guess who will win or lose. Many will close I reckon. Beyond that, although it makes some sense as a hedge against rising house prices, it just feels plain wrong. It seems especially mad at the very top  (past the top) of a gigantic unsustainable house price bubble.

Almost as mad as buying a house.

Erm...

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1 hour ago, Digsby said:

I'm going to view a house tomorrow Venger. Doubt if I will buy it, except for a huge discount.

Bland is correct, from what little I have seen, Foxtons are in the precise predicament I predicted - sales are massively down, letting fees are not- but they will be. It's almost as if TPTB have said: "your job is to sell - if you're not going to sell, you can bugger off and be replaced by someone who will".

Lettings is about to become a highly competitive business with very narrow margins. As it should be. One big issue with the market at the moment is that with so many agents and so few vendors, agents are over-valuing properties to get the business. They don't often sell at those prices but once expectations are set, it's hard to lower them.

As for investing in an estate agent, it's hard to guess who will win or lose. Many will close I reckon. Beyond that, although it makes some sense as a hedge against rising house prices, it just feels plain wrong. It seems especially mad at the very top (past the top) of a gigantic unsustainable house price bubble.

Almost as mad as buying a house.

Erm...

 

January 2017.. have you been to many viewings during the last 12 months Digsby?   

Yes.  I see it.  So few vendors (many agents - valuation highs).   Makes me double-think about you viewing in this market though, and doubt any vendor going to get serious on accepting lower prices, at the moment.   Although it is possible.   If we're not hovering at the top now, then I'm totally going to go crazy !  

Tracking a seller who is a recent bankrupt, with a house he's trying to sell at asking price just below £900K.  Upsized to it in 2010 (paying £850K).

Someone I know, who I don't like, upsized and bought their forever-home in 2014, at what I thought was a painfully expensive price (Bomad assistance to buy it).  Trying to flip it for £120,000 more than bought it for.  Haven't had any contact with them but I suspect they have come to market trying to cash in to this low-inventory market.  These are houses at £500K+.

We shall see about lowering owner side/seller expectations... and at some point, more sellers will come to market, and there are good reasons, especially with any change/switch to letting fees, for EAs to push down on expectations.   To open up the market.

 And yes, I have similar views about investing in EAs, especially at this stage of the market - and as renter-saver.   I would only like to see some EAs prosper from lower stable house prices, and decades of high levels of transactions, where people move frequently.

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4 hours ago, LittlePig said:

Lol Countrywide getting creamed! http://www.investegate.co.uk/countrywide-plc--cwd-/rns/trading-statement/201701130700050777U/ Savills a potential outlier?

"As anticipated, the underlying level of market transactions in Q4 continued to run below 2015 and we continue to expect full year 2016 market volumes to reflect a drop of circa 6% on 2015 levels...

It is pleasing to report modest full year revenue growth against the backdrop of a challenging residential sales market.  Our Retail and London divisions were impacted by the lower market volumes which were partially offset by a strong performance from our Lettings business.  It is encouraging to note that both Financial Services and Surveying reported profit growth notwithstanding the external environment."

Super news

 

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3 hours ago, Venger said:

Think we will reach a point where the Estate Agent are important, vs web-based ones, and where agents have to 'sell' houses.   Where the skills of selling become important.   And then later, after HPC, hopefully higher sale transaction levels, for decades to come.  People moving houses regularly, as in the 1980s.   

Vs today of showing Bomad powered buyers around with there let me pay extreme high price attitudes, 'no HPC, dribs and drabs at best' - or... hopefully slowing out now, would-be BTLers who have been outbidding all in sight for the ForeverHPI.

1989 PEAKY PEAKY

Who can't sell houses into the ForeverHPI where 'innocents' pushing and falling over each other to pay madder prices?

Things change, when markets get tougher - as was found out in times past - after bubble ends, and buyers take their time, want value, and don't overlook problems as easily.   Except never before so many BTL and ForeverHPI heads... and these prices!

 

The Firm  hehe (89)

Quote

EA (Gary Oldman) - Well it’s 1935 or thereabouts. It was bombed during the war and patched up with plasticine and blu-tack. The interior guttering is a unique feature which is caused by the raging damp, but Lattimer and Haynes are supplying windscreen wipers for your television set, you got otter traps in the cellar and a free-aqualand course at the local tech college. Well I’m not saying it’s damp of course but if the water levels rise any more you could find yourself selling a house-boat in a couple of years.

 

Edited by Venger
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HOLA4416
4 hours ago, Venger said:

 

January 2017.. have you been to many viewings during the last 12 months Digsby?   

Yes.  I see it.  So few vendors (many agents - valuation highs).   Makes me double-think about you viewing in this market though, and doubt any vendor going to get serious on accepting lower prices, at the moment.   Although it is possible.   If we're not hovering at the top now, then I'm totally going to go crazy !  

Tracking a seller who is a recent bankrupt, with a house he's trying to sell at asking price just below £900K.  Upsized to it in 2010 (paying £850K).

Someone I know, who I don't like, upsized and bought their forever-home in 2014, at what I thought was a painfully expensive price (Bomad assistance to buy it).  Trying to flip it for £120,000 more than bought it for.  Haven't had any contact with them but I suspect they have come to market trying to cash in to this low-inventory market.  These are houses at £500K+.

We shall see about lowering owner side/seller expectations... and at some point, more sellers will come to market, and there are good reasons, especially with any change/switch to letting fees, for EAs to push down on expectations.   To open up the market.

 And yes, I have similar views about investing in EAs, especially at this stage of the market - and as renter-saver.   I would only like to see some EAs prosper from lower stable house prices, and decades of high levels of transactions, where people move frequently.

I've viewed about half a dozen. There have been very, very few houses for sale in the price bracket I am looking at that I would actually want to live in, at whatever price. Of those I have viewed, there was only one I was serious about and put multiple bids in on, around the time of the referendum. In the end, it sold for £10k more than I would pay so it was near buy but not near enough.

I'm certain that only finding one real potential per 12 months over a very wide search area is broadly down to the market itself but I think it also reflects the attitude of the wife and I - for the amount of money we are being asked to cough up here, it has to be the right house in the right place at the right price, and we'll walk away if not.

I'm of the opinion though that we have to view as many potentials as possible without earning a reputation as tyre kickers. We won't stumble across a vendor willing to accept a low price for a quick sale unless we're offering.

I saw a place yesterday on RM for £325k which I recognised as one of my potentials from 12 months ago, asking price £175k but I was unconvinced about the location. Now just a year later, you wouldn't see a 3 bedder with a garden around there for less than £250k and this one on the market for £150k more.

We can't carry on like this - something has to give.

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Nic Budden, its chief executive, said 2016 had been a challenging year, with revenues falling to £133m from £150m in 2015 after a significant drop in sales. Underlying earnings for the full year are expected to be £25m, down from £46m a year earlier.

“Looking ahead, we expect trading conditions to remain challenging in 2017. Should current levels of sales activity continue in the short term, it is likely that 2017 volumes will be below those in 2016,” he said.

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HOLA4418

A piece from Bloomberg on Friday covering a lot of the same ground covered here.

Quote

This is surely a sign that Foxtons's post- IPO strategy of lavish empire-building must switch to one of penny-pinching if it wants to ride out the slump while keeping shareholders sweet. It talks of keeping a tight lid on costs, but still opened seven new branches last year with another two due in the first quarter of 2017 (one in Peckham, which will likely disappoint the edgier denizens of "hipster central").

Between the end of 2012 and last autumn, Foxtons opened more than 25 new offices, according to Barclays, with existing and planned branches totaling 100 by mid-2016. Yet putting more green flags on the map hasn't created more profit: adjusted Ebitda was about 25 million pounds in 2016, the lowest in at least six years.

I love the idea of Foxtons in Peckham but I'm not sure which is funnier, Del and Rodders as employees or customers. Many things have been suggested as a sign of a top, Foxtons in Peckham seems to have as good of a claim to be such as a great many of others!

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On 14/01/2017 at 7:44 AM, 999house said:

Nic Budden, its chief executive, said 2016 had been a challenging year, with revenues falling to £133m from £150m in 2015 after a significant drop in sales. Underlying earnings for the full year are expected to be £25m, down from £46m a year earlier.

“Looking ahead, we expect trading conditions to remain challenging in 2017. Should current levels of sales activity continue in the short term, it is likely that 2017 volumes will be below those in 2016,” he said.

People really need to start realising...the London bubble has popped...the collapse will accelerate from here. The mythical chibrse /Russian buyers must hecwell gone, if they ever existed.

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HOLA4420
On 12/01/2017 at 7:50 PM, electrogear said:

So, how come the share price is nearly back at 99p again? What changed since the bad good news was released in their trading statement?

Day traders buying at the low and hoping to get a 5% profit in an hour or two. Some might even have got a 10% profit if they were lucky.

 

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On 15/01/2017 at 7:48 PM, The Masked Tulip said:

Day traders buying at the low and hoping to get a 5% profit in an hour or two. Some might even have got a 10% profit if they were lucky.

 

They better keep hoping.

 

Land registry up 1.1% and foxtons starts collapsing....sales volumes in London dropped 40%.....this baby is going down.

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