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Sledgehead

Halifax Hpi: +1.2%m/m, +4.5%q/q

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House prices up 1.2 pct-Halifax

(don't shoot the messenger)

Index (seasonally adjusted) 550.5

Monthly Change 1.2%

Annual Change 4.5%

Standardised Average Price (seasonally adjusted) £170,086

Key Points

House prices increased by 1.2% in November. Overall, prices have increased by 4.7% over the past six months.

On an annual basis, house prices are up 4.5%, significantly below the 16.8% annual growth rate recorded in November 2004.

The number of mortgage approvals to fund house purchase increased for the fourth successive month in October, according to the Bank of England. The number of loans, at 113,000, on a seasonally adjusted basis, was 35% higher than in October 2004.

The high level of employment and good earnings growth continue to underpin housing demand.

The slowdown in the UK economy over the past year and the historically high level of house prices relative to average earnings are expected to curb the recent improvement in housing demand and prevent another sustained period of sharply rising property values.

[added] From November House Prices, Halifax

Edited by Sledgehead

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Nationwide figures will contradict Halifax as usual. With the FSA revelations about the level of "Lie to Buy" and widespread mortgage fraud it is diffciult to accept VI statistics with any degree of trust.

As for November, Nationwide said:

"Earlier this week, the country's biggest building society, the Nationwide, said UK house prices were unchanged in November. "

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4489804.stm

The economic picture with regard to consumer confidence hit a 22 year low according to the CBI's release yesterday which hardly bodes well for further increases in the housing bubble.

Edited by Realistbear

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Guest Riser

BBC leapt on the report with the usual spin.

House price inflation picks up

House price inflation in the UK is rising, according to the latest survey from the Halifax.

The country's biggest mortgage lender says prices in November were 4.5% higher than a year ago, due to a rise of 1.2% last month alone.

The annual rate of inflation has now gone up for the fourth month in a row, and leaves the average house in the UK now costing £170,086.

However, the Halifax said prices were not about to start shooting up again.

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BBC leapt on the report with the usual spin.

House price inflation picks up

Here is the full story on the Halifax release:

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/051202/323/fydkg.html

LONDON (AFX) - There was further evidence this morning that the UK housing market is picking up following the Bank of England's interest rate cut in August, a survey by HBOS PLC (LSE: HBOS.L - news) unit Halifax showed.

Halifax found that UK house prices rose by 1.2 pct in November from October and rose by 4.5 pct year-on-year.

The average seasonally-adjusted house price stands at 170,086 stg.

'The high level of employment and good earnings growth continues to underpin housing demand,' said Halifax chief economist Martin Ellis.

However, the slowdown in UK economic growth over the past year, as well as the historically high level of house prices relative to average earnings are expected to curb the recent improvement in housing demand and will prevent another period of sustained sharp rises in property values, he said.

In line with solid mortgage lending figures released by the Bank of England earlier this week, Halifax Estate Agents have seen a rise in sales in recent months with sales higher than a year earlier for the first time this year in October, Halifax said.

Read the bit after "However"......... Even the Halifax concede things are not so rosy.

Edited by Realistbear

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Read the bit after "However"......... Even the Halifax concede things are not so rosy.

Exactly, because they're not. I'm more and more convinced that we're going to see some chaos in the housing market next year. HPC 2006?

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Exactly, because they're not. I'm more and more convinced that we're going to see some chaos in the housing market next year. HPC 2006?

And not forgetting the Nationwide:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4489804.stm

"Earlier this week, the country's biggest building society, the Nationwide, said UK house prices were unchanged in November. "

Who is telling porkies? Nationwide or Halifax? After the crash I think I will take my business to Nationwide.

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Guest consa

1.2% MOM in November, now they are taking the p#ss.

That would be back on course for 15% YOY

They are gearing up for some bad figures IMO to try and keep YOY positive till the spring bounce :lol::lol:

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i give up with these figures. I look on rightmove at a basket of propeties in my area (SW0 (sadly everyday) and i can say without doubt that house prices have not gone up 4.5% in the last year.

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And not forgetting the Nationwide:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4489804.stm

"Earlier this week, the country's biggest building society, the Nationwide, said UK house prices were unchanged in November. "

Who is telling porkies? Nationwide or Halifax? After the crash I think I will take my business to Nationwide.

Yes. HBS rather than HBOS.

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Guest consa

1.2% MOM in November, now they are taking the p#ss.

That would be back on course for 15% YOY

They are gearing up for some bad figures IMO to try and keep YOY positive till the spring bounce :lol::lol:

Lets remind ourselves how they get their Indices and how they are weighted:-

http://www.houseprice.org.uk/indices.htm

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Guest Time 2 raise Interest Rates

Personally, I was expecting them to report a bigger jump this month.

They know only too well the housing market is UK plc and with rates

looking like they're staying the same or on the way up, I don't expect

them reporting too many months of price falls.

It seems rather uncanny how all the way through the crash of the late

80's and early 90's and the boom of recent years, their predictions

regarding the future movement of house price inflation were rather

way off the mark, but all of a sudden, they're saying house prices will

stagnate and, hey presto, they are. Well, according to them anyway.

IMO, of course, I think their stats are a bit of a laughing stock.

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ISN'T IT FUNNY HOW THE NATIONWIDE AND HALIFAX TAKE IN TURNS TO ISSUE GOOD AND BAD DATA EACH MONTH, I'VE NOTICED THIS A LOT THIS YEAR.

ME THINKS THERE'S A CONSPIRACY GOING ON HERE,

WHO REGULATES THEIR DATA / REPORTS?

Edited by crash 2005

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ISN'T IT FUNNY HOW THE NATIONWIDE AND HALIFAX TAKE IN TURNS TO ISSUE GOOD AND BAD DATA EACH MONTH, I'VE NOTICED THIS A LOT THIS YEAR.

ME THINKS THERE'S A CONSPIRACY GOING ON HERE,

WHO REGULATES THEIR DATA / REPORTS?

More like random scatter, and crazy seasonal adjustment. :lol::lol::lol::lol:

The Times

THU 03 MAR 1994

House prices on rise

House prices rose in February by their biggest monthly increase for 5 1/2 years, the Halifax Building Society said yesterday. Prices rose 2.2 per cent when compared with January, taking the value of an average home to Pounds 62,498. The increase re...

The Sunday Times

SUN 06 MAR 1994

House prices leap as more make a move

HOUSE prices jumped sharply last month according to the Halifax, Britain's biggest building society. What pleases it even more is that volumes are up more people are buying and selling. After so many false dawns, it really seems the housing market ...

:lol::lol::lol::lol:

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Figures don't surprise me here in south hertfordshire. There are no decent houses for sale and as soon as something comes up there is so much interest the houses are selling in days and in several cases for more then asking. :(

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ISN'T IT FUNNY HOW THE NATIONWIDE AND HALIFAX TAKE IN TURNS TO ISSUE GOOD AND BAD DATA EACH MONTH, I'VE NOTICED THIS A LOT THIS YEAR.

Yes, I have noticed this pattern as well. The two big morgage lenders take it in turns to issue figures saying there was a big jump in one month, then the next month they say it was flat, and the other says there was a big jump.

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/e1d2ab60-630a-11d...00779e2340.html

The data from Halifax follows a report earlier this week from Nationwide, which said house prices were flat in November after jumping in October.

Of course, "jumping" is a bit of a sensationalist term for an increase of ~1%, but then hyperbole is never far away in the VI universe.

WHO REGULATES THEIR DATA / REPORTS?

No-one. Read the disclaimer at the bottom of the Halifax press release:

The Halifax house price index is prepared from information that we believe is collated with care, but we do not make any statement as to its accuracy or completeness. We reserve the right to vary our methodology and to edit or discontinue the indices at any time for regulatory or other reasons. Persons seeking to place reliance on the indices for their own or third party commercial purposes do so at their own risk.

Nationwide's release carries a similar disclaimer.

Edited by IPOD

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House prices up 1.2 pct-Halifax

As I have said (along with others) the headline figures are completely meaningless. Even when broken down they show a highly skewed picture. I suggest that anybody trying to sell their home now will typically find themselves having to accept an offer 10-20% down from peak values last year. I have no specific evidence but a little thought about how the published figures are produced shows that they are completely unrepresentative. It suits the Halifax and toher VIs to continue publishing them.

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Thanks you Halifax twits - the BoE will have taken note! :)

oh yes get those rates up.

This is all just stored up pressure and will make the bang all the louder when the facts on the street become known. :ph34r:

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  • 335 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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      • Even
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      • up 5%



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