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John The Pessimist

Pwc Forecast Houseprice Growth.

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Great news, isn't this the economic plan.

Of course, only this time it has George Osborne's signature at the bottom rather than Gordon Brown's.

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Also reported as a big story here http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2685713/Three-bed-semi-cost-330-000-just-six-years-live-London-average-home-set-565-000.html

From his March 2014 article, and his easy money isn't going to return. http://pwc.blogs.com/economics_in_business/2014/03/is-there-a-house-price-bubble-in-the-uk.html

London first-time buyers crowded out
The impact of this will fall hardest on first-time buyers; the chart below shows that house price to earnings ratios for first-time buyers has been increasing rapidly since 2010 in London, which has been out of sync with the rest of the UK. Mortgage payments for first-time buyers in London are also already over half of take-home pay. While this is lower than at the peak of the housing boom, this proportion is likely to grow interest rates increase to more normal level. Again this has been a divergence from the rest of the UK where this proportion has been falling in the low interest-rate environment.
One reason cited for the very high demand for London housing has been investment from overseas buyers. Essentially, London property is acting as a safe haven investment. Therefore, unless expectations from overseas shift, we might expect demand to remain robust. However, demand is likely to remain strong as political instability continues in Eastern Europe & North Africa and volatility in emerging markets persists[2].
Is there a house price bubble?
Based on these four metrics there seems to be little evidence to suggest a house price bubble at the UK level.

I guess there is no end in sight for trophy home buyers wanting and able to buy at very high prices in London, stamp duty, new tax regime, and never any situation where more sellers may come to market, with some of those sellers willing to accept lower prices at the margin, to bring values down.

Nor MMR, stress tests, or standard FTB/upsizer hesitation at these prices - unless you drag them into the banks to make them borrow - how some see 2000-2007 anyway with the easing that's been done to save the equity-rich house price wealth of older VI overstretched victims.

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BBC Business Live Feed all over this, having promised to give readers all the details that accompanied the headline. Combine that with the spin they have put on today's Halifax data - shocking, but utterly unexpected.

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Kids with their heads in macro. Economic Advisor and a speechwriter for Cabinet Ministers during the boom without bust (2001-2007). i think I'll stick to my own projections of hpc.

William Zimmern @WillZ95 · Feb 21
Grateful to @Rosamund*&%$ for being described as a crystal ball-gazer - that's got to be a good thing? Right? http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/rosamund-urwin-will-london-be-hoist-on-its-own-for-sale-sign-9140985.html ... I pray Home-ageddon will never happen. But every day I think we edge ever closer to my nightmare. Just walk around the backstreets of Knightsbridge or Kensington at night; the lights aren’t on and no one’s home.

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Also reported as a big story here http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2685713/Three-bed-semi-cost-330-000-just-six-years-live-London-average-home-set-565-000.html

From his March 2014 article, and his easy money isn't going to return. http://pwc.blogs.com/economics_in_business/2014/03/is-there-a-house-price-bubble-in-the-uk.html

I guess there is no end in sight for trophy home buyers wanting and able to buy at very high prices in London, stamp duty, new tax regime, and never any situation where more sellers may come to market, with some of those sellers willing to accept lower prices at the margin, to bring values down.

Nor MMR, stress tests, or standard FTB/upsizer hesitation at these prices - unless you drag them into the banks to make them borrow - how some see 2000-2007 anyway with the easing that's been done to save the equity-rich house price wealth of older VI overstretched victims.

Half of take home pay when rates are at historical lows..

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