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The Masked Tulip

When Not 'if'?

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Surely it is a question of when the FTSE falls and not if?

I mean, UK IRs will have to go up at some point or another in line with the US and EU and, being VERY generous, if we assume that somehow they miraculously do not the FTSE is still very closely linked to the US markets and what they do.

With rising IRs in the US, both a US and UK consumer weighed down by debt and hence a reduced spend in the shops surely it is only time before we see stockmarkets heading south in the US and the UK?

I read with interest that January 2005 Moneyweek article pointing out that the FTSE fell 14% in the last HPC before rallying and then doing rather well. With the current HP bubble being the biggest bubble in history one can only assume that the FTSE fall this time will be greater - and take longer to recover?

I would assume that Christmas sales come January might be the trigger but, in the same Moneyweek article, it mentions how sales last Christmas were the worst since 1979... and the FTSE has soared this year.

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Guest muttley

What reasons do you see for it falling?Poor Christmas sales will undoubtably affect profits for retail,but this is expected, and therefore priced in.

I think investors will find better returns on the Stock Market than,say,property because.....well we all have our opinions.

This is why I remain bullish on the Stock Market. (sluggish 2006,IMHO)

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But they had a poor Christmas last year... how long can they go on having poor sales without the share prices of companies being affected?

Surely a point comes when people realise that people are no longer buying in Currys, Dixons, MFI, etc, etc, and this has a knock on affect on their share prices bringing the FTSE down?

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Guest muttley

But they had a poor Christmas last year... how long can they go on having poor sales without the share prices of companies being affected?

Surely a point comes when people realise that people are no longer buying in Currys, Dixons, MFI, etc, etc, and this has a knock on affect on their share prices bringing the FTSE down?

Retail alone won't bring down the FTSE.

People invest in companies because they expect them to make profits.Obviously falling sales have a BIG effect on profits,but it's not the only thing to affect them.You can increase profits by cutting costs (the easiest way is to reduce staff costs)Companies can benefit from smaller rivals going out of business.

It is not unusual for companies to announce poor Xmas sales,only for their share price to go up on takeover speculation.

2005 was a bad year for retailers and the market knows it.I expect the retail sector to outperform the market in 2006.

As for the FTSE in general,I agree a fall is likely in 2006.But take it as a strong buy,and that includes retail.

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Retail alone won't bring down the FTSE.

People invest in companies because they expect them to make profits.Obviously falling sales have a BIG effect on profits,but it's not the only thing to affect them.You can increase profits by cutting costs (the easiest way is to reduce staff costs)Companies can benefit from smaller rivals going out of business.

It is not unusual for companies to announce poor Xmas sales,only for their share price to go up on takeover speculation.

2005 was a bad year for retailers and the market knows it.I expect the retail sector to outperform the market in 2006.

As for the FTSE in general,I agree a fall is likely in 2006.But take it as a strong buy,and that includes retail.

I agree with you Muttley but am more bullish for 2006. Not sure what the stats are but believe that the UK revenue generated for FTSE100 companies is a considerably smaller proportion than it was.

Stats on FTSE100 for 1988-1994 were pretty well uninterruped rises weren't they? Expect negative correlation between HPs and the stock market this time round too.

However prefer Germany to UK for upside.

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The FTSE already crashed in 2001 - 2003

Its not going to happen again yet.

Its currently at its 1998 level, so I really think its been punished enough.

Well the FTSE100 has just reached 5540.30 up 45.00 at least a 4 year high

with the FTSE 250 on a record high 8542.30 up 25.10

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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