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jasonpistol

Will China Be The Black Swan?

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so, it looks like the china property bubble has burst

i'm thinking this will dramatically slow down chinese economic growth

this will impact on chinas trading partners possibly leading to a stock market corrections (dow & s&p looking a bit peaky at the moment)

less money flowing out of china and into "prime london" (i.e. overpriced new builds)

prime london crash filters down to the wider market

any thoughts?

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so, it looks like the china property bubble has burst

i'm thinking this will dramatically slow down chinese economic growth

this will impact on chinas trading partners possibly leading to a stock market corrections (dow & s&p looking a bit peaky at the moment)

less money flowing out of china and into "prime london" (i.e. overpriced new builds)

prime london crash filters down to the wider market

any thoughts?

I hope that Chinese businessmen short of cash will start liquidating their oversea investments, such as in London ...

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I hope that Chinese businessmen short of cash will start liquidating their oversea investments, such as in London ...

i'm pretty sure they are the ones that are buying up all this overpriced rubbish being built all over london

why would anyone living here buy a cardboard cut out prison cell for the same price as a house?

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so, it looks like the china property bubble has burst

i'm thinking this will dramatically slow down chinese economic growth

this will impact on chinas trading partners possibly leading to a stock market corrections (dow & s&p looking a bit peaky at the moment)

less money flowing out of china and into "prime london" (i.e. overpriced new builds)

prime london crash filters down to the wider market

any thoughts?

What's the source for this (china bubble bursting)? I would like a good doom-read!!

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just google china property bubble

here is an interesting one:

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-07-02/how-bad-would-a-housing-market-crash-be-for-china

"Meanwhile, developers across China are cutting prices, delaying new product launches, and offering further incentives to potential buyers. Most creative yet: guaranteed buybacks. In the Zhejiang provincial capital of Hangzhou, the city with the steepest price drop, Shanheng Real Estate Group is now offering buyers the choice of selling back apartments in five years at 40 percent above the purchase price. And in nearby Wenzhou, DoThink Group will repurchase homes at 120 percent of the buying price after three years, reported Bloomberg News."

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so, it looks like the china property bubble has burst

i'm thinking this will dramatically slow down chinese economic growth

this will impact on chinas trading partners possibly leading to a stock market corrections (dow & s&p looking a bit peaky at the moment)

less money flowing out of china and into "prime london" (i.e. overpriced new builds)

prime london crash filters down to the wider market

any thoughts?

...link....?..

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Or alternatively, more money flowing out of China into London as London is seen as the safe haven?

yes, i did consider this

but i think this will be more than offset by people not feeling rich enough to invest abroad

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Sadly, this is the likely outcome.... :(

You get the exact same conclusions in other parts of the West, including the USA, with the Chinese and their never-ending wealth, from uncertain hpcers and with enthusiasm from the property VI.

I'll wait it out, together with other more cynical hpcers.

Few comments last few days from a Socal house price blog, re the Chinese buyers.

"How can this stop if the Chinese investors are taking over?"
~Home prices will never ever go down. SoCal is different. Jobs don’t matter. Local incomes don’t matter. Fundamentals don’t matter. There are 400 hundred million Chinese with suitcases filled with gold bullion waiting to score one of these luscious beauties. Buy now or be priced out forever!
~BTW havent you figured out “SoCal IS different”. You are so right! In SoCal, home prices will go up 50% a year, every year forever!!!!! Local incomes do not matter. Jobs do not matter. There are 100 million Red Chinese communists drooling at the chance to buy that $2.5 million dollar tear down in San Marino. These Chinese communists have over $10 million dollars each! So money is no object. Start cranking up those San Gabriel Valley home prices now because they are going to the MOOOONNNNNNNN!!!!!!!!
~Worry not about these private equity firms. The Chinese will bail them out 100X over. The Chinese have so much gold they have developed chronic arthritis from the sheer weight of the gold they are carrying.
~Isn’t it rich? Are we a pair?
Me here at last on the ground and you in mid-air
Send in the Chinese
Isn’t it bliss? Don’t you approve?
One who keeps tearing around and one who can’t move
But where are the Chinese? Send in the Chinese
~I was talking to a friend of mine who lives in Shanghai. He was telling me about the attitude Chinese have toward investments in housing – the price you pay is the baseline for what it’s worth, period. This tells me that a lot of people there don’t really understand market dynamics and that just because you say the price is x doesn’t mean the price is actually x.
~Jimtherealtor is right. They are not building any more land. Prices will only go higher and higher and higher!!!!!!
~Local incomes do not matter. Economics do not matter. Debt service loads do not matter. Taxes do not matter. It’s all about location, location, locations and the hundreds of millions of megamillionaire Chinese nationals waiting to buy in SoCal/San Diego/SF Bay area. Forget fundamentals, history or things that matter like the U-3 unemployment rate or the U-6 underemployment rate. This time is different. Buy now or be priced out of the market forever!!!!!!!!!!!
~“What says the hivemind of trolls, shills, sages, and house horny people?
1) Buy now or be priced out forever
2) God ain’t making anymore land
3) Housing will only go up
4) I got rich off of real estate and so can you
5) You gotta live somewhere
6) Rich Red Chinese
7) House is a hedge against inflation
8) Rental “parody” bauk…
9) You get to paint your walls any color you want
10) Your kids NEED a back yard to play in
11) House provides stability
12) Blah, blah, blah

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It cannot be a 'Black Swan' if you are calling it out. B)

Good point. The fact that China is being widely referred to in the press as the big risk to the global economy clearly shows that it cannot be the black swan.

I think we need to make a couple of things clear for these black swan threads:

If the thread begins "is X the black swan event?" then the answer must be "no" if you needed to ask that question.

If the thread asks whether an event widely accepted as possible could be black swan event, then again the answer must be "no".

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Good point. The fact that China is being widely referred to in the press as the big risk to the global economy clearly shows that it cannot be the black swan.

I think we need to make a couple of things clear for these black swan threads:

If the thread begins "is X the black swan event?" then the answer must be "no" if you needed to ask that question.

If the thread asks whether an event widely accepted as possible could be black swan event, then again the answer must be "no".

That the Tory party have conspired to cover up paedophilia in their vile organisation could be the one ... Even Norman Tebbit is effectively saying he shut the f up about it.

If true the Brighton bombing is Karma!

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Good point. The fact that China is being widely referred to in the press as the big risk to the global economy clearly shows that it cannot be the black swan.

I think we need to make a couple of things clear for these black swan threads:

If the thread begins "is X the black swan event?" then the answer must be "no" if you needed to ask that question.

If the thread asks whether an event widely accepted as possible could be black swan event, then again the answer must be "no".

Yes, but surely with even the blackest of black swans you must realise at some point that it is happening. If the property crash in China is happening now then it may be the

black swan but you can't actually see its consequences.

How long do you need to know in advance before you can say it's a black swan?

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Yes, but surely with even the blackest of black swans you must realise at some point that it is happening. If the property crash in China is happening now then it may be the

black swan but you can't actually see its consequences.

How long do you need to know in advance before you can say it's a black swan?

and was the credit crunch a black swan?

when the banks started to fall we knew it was happening but we didn't feel it on the ground for several months

so, during those several months would it have been wrong to call it a black swan?

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and was the credit crunch a black swan?

when the banks started to fall we knew it was happening but we didn't feel it on the ground for several months

so, during those several months would it have been wrong to call it a black swan?

This is like Schrodinger's Cat - it is both alive and dead until you look. :blink:

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If the western press points to China as being the black swan then start looking in the opposite direction.

For example look for a country now being touted by politicians and the media as being a massive success story, claiming rapid growth (like a tiger economy) and also claiming to be recovering faster from the latest economic calamity than any other country around the globe.

It's just a matter of identifying that country.

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If the western press points to China as being the black swan then start looking in the opposite direction.

For example look for a country now being touted by politicians and the media as being a massive success story, claiming rapid growth (like a tiger economy) and also claiming to be recovering faster from the latest economic calamity than any other country around the globe.

It's just a matter of identifying that country.

I have no idea . . . . B)

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That the Tory party have conspired to cover up paedophilia in their vile organisation could be the one ... Even Norman Tebbit is effectively saying he shut the f up about it.

If true the Brighton bombing is Karma!

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That the Tory party have conspired to cover up paedophilia in their vile organisation could be the one ... Even Norman Tebbit is effectively saying he shut the f up about it.

If true the Brighton bombing is Karma!

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If the western press points to China as being the black swan then start looking in the opposite direction.

For example look for a country now being touted by politicians and the media as being a massive success story, claiming rapid growth (like a tiger economy) and also claiming to be recovering faster from the latest economic calamity than any other country around the globe.

It's just a matter of identifying that country.

Indeed, a China collapse would be about as white as white swans go.. everyone and their kid sister has been predicting it for most of the last decade.

Could be something more like a major el Nino event that knocks harvests worldwide by 30+%.

Or the long threatened Saudi Arabian coup..

Or a sudden and unexpected bankruptcy in the shale oil/gas sector..

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No that boat, the "Black Swan", is clearly loaded with explosives and heading towards the Houses of Parliament. Though at 4mph nobody can say they didn't see it coming...

Edited by Digsby

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If the western press points to China as being the black swan then start looking in the opposite direction.

For example look for a country now being touted by politicians and the media as being a massive success story, claiming rapid growth (like a tiger economy) and also claiming to be recovering faster from the latest economic calamity than any other country around the globe.

It's just a matter of identifying that country.

Sounds like Osbornes prematurely ejaculated UK to me.

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If the western press points to China as being the black swan then start looking in the opposite direction.

For example look for a country now being touted by politicians and the media as being a massive success story, claiming rapid growth (like a tiger economy) and also claiming to be recovering faster from the latest economic calamity than any other country around the globe.

It's just a matter of identifying that country.

The UK? :P

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