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Nationwide Index Still Rising

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Up 1% MoM in June

11% YoY

Quarterly report out too - London up 26% over the last 12 months

Piece on this on Radio 4 this morning. The presenter asserted that rising house prices are often presented as a good thing but are not good for everyone. The commentator he was addressing then countered that there were plenty of people rising house prices were good for and proceeded to list them: down sizers, buy to let investors, re-mortgagers. Mumbled something about first time buyers at the end maybe, couldn't tell.

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Quarterly report out too - London up 26% over the last 12 months

Incredible. And still the politicians and the Boe sit and fiddle while we burn.

I welcome these insane increases now as the quicker and higher it climbs the worse the collapse will be.

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Incredible. And still the politicians and the Boe sit and fiddle while we burn.

I welcome these insane increases now as the quicker and higher it climbs the worse the collapse will be.

The central bank must be one of the most duplicitous, bent and immoral entities the UK has to offer, playing the media excuse game at every level on a daily basis, individuals making their own excuses and get out clauses whilst taking money under false promises.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/business/markets-economy/boe-warns-household-debt-a-risk-to-sustained-recovery.24642917

BoE warns household debt a risk to sustained recovery

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The London figures don't surprise me. Where I was in Tooting Bec, prices of 3-bed houses went up by about 40%. From 2010 to the start of 2013 prices were flat, and I felt comfortable not buying a place. Then, about 4 months after HTB was announced, prices started to go through the roof.

Places that were selling for £450k in 2010 in Tooting (i.e. Tooting proper, not Tooting Bec) are now on the market at £850k+. It is impossible to sustain these prices - no one with that kind of money wants to live there, and the rental yield must be 2-3%, so BTL is a very risky gamble.

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I have seen a stack of new properties on the market in SW17 over the past few days. I am sure all the stuff in the media must be precipitating a bit of a panic - quick, let's sell before prices start dropping. The prices are also perhaps marginally less delusional than in the past few months.

At some point the tide of sentiment will turn into a tsunami. Not sure we're quite there yet, but there is definitely something in the air, so to speak - in mixed metaphors.

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I welcome these insane increases now as the quicker and higher it climbs the worse the collapse will be.

I would like to think so too, but I suspect that without an interest rate rise to shake out the zombies and newest buyers, we might just get prices moving to a new higher stable level, with more scared buyers diving in once they see a 10% fall from this new normal - the stock market seems to be following the same irrational pattern at the moment thanks to all the QE and ongoing ZIRP...

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I have seen a stack of new properties on the market in SW17 over the past few days. I am sure all the stuff in the media must be precipitating a bit of a panic - quick, let's sell before prices start dropping. The prices are also perhaps marginally less delusional than in the past few months.

At some point the tide of sentiment will turn into a tsunami. Not sure we're quite there yet, but there is definitely something in the air, so to speak - in mixed metaphors.

I wonder if a 'yes' vote from Scotland in September would be the earthquake needed...

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I have seen a stack of new properties on the market in SW17 over the past few days. I am sure all the stuff in the media must be precipitating a bit of a panic - quick, let's sell before prices start dropping. The prices are also perhaps marginally less delusional than in the past few months.

At some point the tide of sentiment will turn into a tsunami. Not sure we're quite there yet, but there is definitely something in the air, so to speak - in mixed metaphors.

Seeing the same in my area (one of the four in the UK back in bubble territory). The amount of low end shite hitting the market is getting close to the highest I have ever seen. The vast majority of it is still 25-30% over priced and that's being generous, but reading the descriptions it looks like BTL heading for the exits to me.

Bring it on.

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After posting above I had a quick look at Rightmove. Prices in my old area have indeed softened a fair bit in the past few weeks, but they have a long way to go to get back to early 2013 prices - you'd need to see a 30% fall, which I don't see happening any time soon. If it did start to happen, I think we'd just see another hare-brained scheme from Osborne and/or Carney.

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Piece on this on Radio 4 this morning. The presenter asserted that rising house prices are often presented as a good thing but are not good for everyone. The commentator he was addressing then countered that there were plenty of people rising house prices were good for and proceeded to list them: down sizers, buy to let investors, re-mortgagers. Mumbled something about first time buyers at the end maybe, couldn't tell.

I heard that as well.. seemed to be an element of 'Allows people to withdraw equity' as well as 'Access lower interest rates'. Definitely got the impression that he didn't want to talk about it..

(Almost as if the real winners from rising prices were the banks/building societies)

Apparently, first time buyers are up, although I can't find any actual numbers.

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Browsing Zoopla last night, there were two houses, one in South Gloucestershire that last sold in August 2013 for £150k now on sale for £300k, and one in North Somerset last sold in Nov 2012 for £385k now on sale for £200k. I saw a surprising number where the asking price was very close to last sold prices where the last sold price was 2010-2013, though don't recall any where it was lower except for the above one. Reductions, where they were happening, were typically 2% about every six weeks, at a guess from gut feeling.

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The MSM better spin this one for all it's worth - the Halifax update is also imminent, which is almost certain to include a major statistical correction downwards on the back of last month's quirky 3.9% increase.

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Remember thinking in 2004 that London seemed comparatively cheap to the rest of the country and this graph highlights that, I seriously considered a move to the capital. At the time the provincial market had just had a doubling in prices over the previous five years (1999-2004) and suddenly the Peak district cottage was swappable for a two bed flat in Kensington. Now the Kensington flat has tripled in a decade and the Peak District cottage that I sold shortly after 2004 is less than what is was then.

No doubts what I would have done if I had a crystal ball.

Edited by crashmonitor

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New all-time high for the FTB P/E ratio in the Outer Met.

Nationwide_FTB_PE_Q2_2014.gif

But just look at that Inner London HTB spike! D'you reckon Osbourne looks on that with unalloyed pride or will there now be a hint of embarrassment?

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Remember thinking in 2004 that London seemed comparatively cheap to the rest of the country and this graph highlights that, I seriously considered a move to the capital. At the time the provincial market had just had a doubling in prices over the previous five years (1999-2004) and suddenly the Peak district cottage was swappable for a two bed flat in Kensington. Now the Kensington flat has tripled in a decade and the Peak District cottage that I sold shortly after 2004 is less than what is was then.

No doubts what I what have done if I had a crystal ball.

For me it's the total unpredictability that's the killer. If govt just butted out, things would settle to an equilibrium and sensible people could make sensible long term plans. As things stand, the massive risk takers assuming what I had regarded as irresponsible debts have won and the sensible people have lost out, bailed out by a crazy, unpredictable govt intervention.

This is the core issue that enrages me.

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But just look at that Inner London HTB spike! D'you reckon Osbourne looks on that with unalloyed pride or will there now be a hint of embarrassment?

London based politicians with inner London property control the levers, Miliband with his three million pound pad is in waiting........no embarrassment this was done by design.

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For me it's the total unpredictability that's the killer. If govt just butted out, things would settle to an equilibrium and sensible people could make sensible long term plans. As things stand, the massive risk takers assuming what I had regarded as irresponsible debts have won and the sensible people have lost out, bailed out by a crazy, unpredictable govt intervention.

This is the core issue that enrages me.

Friends of mine have just paid 45% over 2007 sale price for a house in an area I'd like to move to eventually. 98% asking price. Sensible people are a dying breed.

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Friends of mine have just paid 45% over 2007 sale price for a house in an area I'd like to move to eventually. 98% asking price. Sensible people are a dying breed.

More gristle for the grinder.

Hope the Halifax figure stays positive. We need the market to be so overinflated that there's nothing that can be done.

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~Interesting side note: After being refused a mortgage in principal for £100k 50% LTV from First Direct, I decided to give Nationwide a try as I had been told that their lending criteria is very lax.

Nationwide approved in principal (last month) a sum of £200k.

I think it goes to show what bank is driving up prices via loose credit. I won;t be following up the mortgage offer as I start a new job on Monday and prices around here have been being reduced for the last couple of months.

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