Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
Corruption

No Impending Crash Coming

Recommended Posts

With the latest doublespeak policy by Carney that will do nothing to stop banks lending like they know the taxpayer will bail them out again, with interest rate rises always just a few months away and MMR not having the bite it should, is it clear that property prices are to remain well out of sync versus wages for many years to come .... or am i just a glass half full kind of guy?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

With the latest doublespeak policy by Carney that will do nothing to stop banks lending like they know the taxpayer will bail them out again, with interest rate rises always just a few months away and MMR not having the bite it should, is it clear that property prices are to remain well out of sync versus wages for many years to come .... or am i just a glass half full kind of guy?

Way to early to tell if MMR will have any serious effect. However, the early signs look like it may well do. May's approval levels fell off a cliff compared to April. Base rates staying low, but mortgage rates slowly ticking up. Stress tests announced today appear to be an extra tightening of the MMR regs. Affordability arguably already stretched to the limit? Good anecdotal evidence of a turning point in prices in central London. Media showing signs of panicking, mixed signals being sent out in recent weeks/months, managing expectations? Where I am prices appear to have stalled, plenty of reductions coming to market. Limits by certain banks on mortgages in London over £500K will halt expectations of price increases causing foreign investors to look elsewhere for a safe place for their money?

I'm pretty positive overall that by election time prices may have fallen back slightly in nominal terms and could well accelerate in the post election months.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The market in northamptonshire has fallen apart. Have a look with property bee. We are heading back to Jan 2013 at pace this time the trajectory is downwards.

Got to agree. I'm seeing sellers knocking £10-20K off asking prices looking at places from £200K asking prices and below, and still sitting on the market for months. Prices aren't going any higher round our way for the foreseeable of that I'm certain.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The BBC had up early a chart of year on year hpi percentage change. I cannot find it but it showed the percentage increase rising and then hitting a peak growth. Reporting is consistent with bubble eg. There are many speculators in the market like the flipper on the BbC breakfast this morning. They buy in expectation of massive growth.

Now at the IMO peak FPC have introduced something. Some commentary on here is that policy can hold up hpi to some kind of target hpi growth to achieve a plateau of acceptable growth. I assume this is required to keep the plates spinning to the election. I have my doubts they can hold it together.

Edited by Ash4781

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My OH and I have had our respective houses on the market for months. The last viewing we had was in March, zero interest since, just dropped the asking price of hers for the fourth time and still no interest whatsoever. I'm about to drop the asking price on mine again.

Friends, colleagues, relatives etc are all really shocked when I tell them, they are all lapping up the media's talk of a boom. There is no boom here (Lincs)

Of course we get the inevitable comments of 'Just rent them out then..'!

Edited by Neil D Possitt

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My OH and I have had our respective houses on the market for months. The last viewing we had was in March, zero interest since, just dropped the asking price of hers for the fourth time and still no interest whatsoever. I'm about to drop the asking price on mine again.

Friends, colleagues, relatives etc are all really shocked when I tell them, they are all lapping up the media's talk of a boom. There is no boom here (Lincs)

Of course we get the inevitable comments of 'Just rent them out then..'!

If you're not getting viewings, and your place isn't ghastly, just take a serious chunk off the price rather than chipping away at it endlessly. As a potential buyer, I really don't intend to pay much more than 90ish% of the asking - if places are dropping by 5-10k at a time, the seller clearly doesn't want to haggle so I won't bother booking a viewing. Take 5 or 10% off at a time and buyers will know you're serious IMHO.

I was however rather stunned to see a place on my watch list in rural Suffolk drop from a laughable 375K to OIEO 300K in less than 10 days! I'd imagine that gets viewings now :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I was going to start my own thread on this idea.

the timing of this new policy from BOE coincided with a natural market top brought about by people attempting to front run Help-To-Buy and the new MMR rules. I suspect that they've introduce them now to make it look like BOE has some control over the banks and property market, when in fact it does not and is using this natural top to make it look like it is their policy in action.

your thoughts?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

US hpi is running comfortably in double figures again now after the briefest respite in March and April: the National Association of Realtors says 13.5%, Dataquick says 13.5% and CoreLogic's pending sales are recording 13.2% in June.

Meanwhile, hopelessly behind the curve, the Fed continues to maintain that the housing component of US cpi is below 2.0%!

Of course, what's not keeping pace with actual inflation are the wages and salaries of the majority of Americans (except perhaps in RK's imagination). So spending will continue to get squeezed and the US economy will continue to weaken. And that's before $4.00 gasoline hits American motorists like a ton of oil sand.

The half empty glass is precariously balanced.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If you're not getting viewings, and your place isn't ghastly, just take a serious chunk off the price rather than chipping away at it endlessly. As a potential buyer, I really don't intend to pay much more than 90ish% of the asking - if places are dropping by 5-10k at a time, the seller clearly doesn't want to haggle so I won't bother booking a viewing. Take 5 or 10% off at a time and buyers will know you're serious IMHO.

I was however rather stunned to see a place on my watch list in rural Suffolk drop from a laughable 375K to OIEO 300K in less than 10 days! I'd imagine that gets viewings now :)

Yes I'm inclined to agree. It doesn't help that agents are still trying to talk the market up and suggest silly initial asking prices in my experience.

I'd happily knock 50% off them both if we could negotiate a similar percentage reduction off our next place!

Edited by Neil D Possitt

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I was going to start my own thread on this idea.

the timing of this new policy from BOE coincided with a natural market top brought about by people attempting to front run Help-To-Buy and the new MMR rules. I suspect that they've introduce them now to make it look like BOE has some control over the banks and property market, when in fact it does not and is using this natural top to make it look like it is their policy in action.

your thoughts?

Agreed. Carney has done nothing, essentially. MMR is completely redundant as far as I can see. The market was topping out naturally due to affordability constraints. Those foreign QE billions can only be leveraged so far, especially in London.

Why tighten when prices are set to fall? Similarly, why raise rates when the UK economy still needs a 7% primary deficit to keep it out of recession?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I was going to start my own thread on this idea.

the timing of this new policy from BOE coincided with a natural market top brought about by people attempting to front run Help-To-Buy and the new MMR rules. I suspect that they've introduce them now to make it look like BOE has some control over the banks and property market, when in fact it does not and is using this natural top to make it look like it is their policy in action.

your thoughts?

I'd tend to agree. I think the top was reached several months ago and they know that it's falling again but this time they have no ammo to keep it up. Their best bet....pretend they are doing the decent thing for us hard working famillies...Cynical but possible,

FLS is dead for normal morrgages now if MMR make people borrow sane amounts then the housing market ( based on sub-prime lending to people at insane levels ) is only going one way.

Caveat Emptor.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I was however rather stunned to see a place on my watch list in rural Suffolk drop from a laughable 375K to OIEO 300K in less than 10 days! I'd imagine that gets viewings now :)

I'm not sure that is so silly.

You get most interest in the first two weeks. Why not fly a kite for 2 weeks, listen to feedback and set a more realistic price based on that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm not sure that is so silly.

You get most interest in the first two weeks. Why not fly a kite for 2 weeks, listen to feedback and set a more realistic price based on that.

Well, perhaps they are more sensible than their fellow sellers who have been chipping a couple of k off here or there when their starting price is at least 30% higher than the last sale in the area.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, perhaps they are more sensible than their fellow sellers who have been chipping a couple of k off here or there when their starting price is at least 30% higher than the last sale in the area.

I will not view houses that are priced high, and have £5k chipped off each month. It is clearly a Space Cadet that has drunk from the Chalice of HPI. It was interesting to hear Carney on R4 this morning. Clearly, HPI at all cost, and sod the savers, George has an Election to buy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The market in northamptonshire has fallen apart. Have a look with property bee. We are heading back to Jan 2013 at pace this time the trajectory is downwards.

Seems the MPC has been trying to manage the market by words and inaction. But actually Carney does appear to have crushed sentiment and expectations by talking the talk but not walking the walk. Tougher mortgage rules will have had some impact, but I do believe price expectations and sentiment have a bigger impact than regulation.

The Market, of course, always falls off a cliff during the three month period from about mid June. It will be interesting to see if things do get going again in the autumn or if this is indeed the start of something more protracted. if so I guess Carney will start to back track on the tough talk as the economic miracle unravels.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Market, of course, always falls off a cliff during the three month period from about mid June. It will be interesting to see if things do get going again in the autumn or if this is indeed the start of something more protracted. if so I guess Carney will start to back track on the tough talk as the economic miracle unravels.

Again with that! Unless you're referring to some market other than the housing market, can you show me evidence to support that statement? All I see is that June, July and August are consistently the 3 months of the year with the highest volume of transactions, the greatest total spend, and the highest mean prices.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Again with that! Unless you're referring to some market other than the housing market, can you show me evidence to support that statement? All I see is that June, July and August are consistently the 3 months of the year with the highest volume of transactions, the greatest total spend, and the highest mean prices.

My observations of the market is that it comes in two main phases......a spring bounce from January-May and a shorter autumn bounce from about September-October.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My observations of the market is that it comes in two main phases......a spring bounce from January-May and a shorter autumn bounce from about September-October.

Based on what measure(s)? In terms of numbers of transactions reported by the Land Registry, June, July and August accounted for 28.4% in the years 2001-2013

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Based on what measure(s)? In terms of numbers of transactions reported by the Land Registry, June, July and August accounted for 28.4% in the years 2001-2013

Completions.... not point of sale. Certainly if I was selling a property I would be looking to sell into a rising trend from the early spring and not a falling trend from the summer as things started to get quiet. The US market........

http://collateralanalytics.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/AU_TAJ_WI12_Feature_SeasonalityHomePrices.pdf?WT.qs_osrc=fxb-172200310

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Completions.... not point of sale. Certainly if I was selling a property I would be looking to sell into a rising trend from the early spring and not a falling trend from the summer as things started to get quiet. The US market........

http://collateralanalytics.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/AU_TAJ_WI12_Feature_SeasonalityHomePrices.pdf?WT.qs_osrc=fxb-172200310

I will read that document with interest, thanks, and it will prove interesting to compare my seasonal factors with those, but most of my limited brainpower is being taken up with work right now so I can take part in some light discussion but studying is out of the question.

Can you just clarify something for me though - your distinction between completions and point of sale? As far as I understand it, LR transactions are recorded at the date the title deeds change, would this not be the same date as completion?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I will read that document with interest, thanks, and it will prove interesting to compare my seasonal factors with those, but most of my limited brainpower is being taken up with work right now so I can take part in some light discussion but studying is out of the question.

Can you just clarify something for me though - your distinction between completions and point of sale? As far as I understand it, LR transactions are recorded at the date the title deeds change, would this not be the same date as completion?

I'm referring to when the sale was agreed, possibly three month earlier. Point of sale was rather the wrong description.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm referring to when the sale was agreed, possibly three month earlier. Point of sale was rather the wrong description.

Ok I get you... you are saying *I* am looking at completions, but you are looking at when the sale was agreed, I had it the other way round sorry.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   206 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.