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Electric Cars


Frank Hovis

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HOLA441

Just to correct a point often made: the energy savings of electric transport ARE massive even taking into account the electricity generation and transmission loses.

Diesel doesn't come out of the ground ready to use in your car, refining crude takes enormous amount of energy as any photo of an oil refinery implies. I read UK oil refineries use up 10% of the whole UK electricity output themselves, though that's likely out of date now quite a few have shutdown...

Back on topic: buying a new car never makes economic sense, but thanks to early adopters there will be a fair few second hand electric cars available in a couple of years. I just overtook an i3 on the motorway...

With a 100 mile two way commute I'd say the OP is perfect candidate for an electric car. You need to use them a lot for the fuel savings to overcome the extra expense. And 100 miles of range is plenty: you just need to be able to park at work near a plug.

Even IF the masses of everyday drivers, up and down the country, each had a plug socket (and long enough leads) to charge up their car in the company car park during the working day.....does anyone really think that companies are going to bear this extra electricity demand out of their own pockets? or just end up billing their staff (at no doubt some premium to the actual cost the company pays!)

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HOLA442

I don't think that the electricity for millions of cars is capable of being generated and I don't think that the grid can handle it either.

But that aside - I live in a terraced house and I can't always park outside my house so how can I recharge my electric car, and even if I can park, what about people tripping over the extension lead as they walk up and down the street?

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HOLA443

Even IF most cars are charged at night, when leccy demand for other uses (e.g toasters, washing machines, office lighting, etc) is at its lowest, surely the total demand for 'juice' from all these cars will still vastly exceed the Grids capability of supplying it - even iF that supply (from powerstations) is actually available??!!

There are at present a few thousand pure EVs on the roads?? What will be the impact if there are 20 million!

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/10/08/energy_shortages/

Something tells me that pure EVs, as a replacement for petrol/diesel, will only ever be 'novelties' for the more afluent motorists? and so never amount to serious numbers. The Polaroid camera of the car world?

On the contrary, EVs promise to be a critical factor in the switch to nuclear and/or renewable energy sources. They have the potential to provide a major contribution to the demand management that is needed in order to make best use of constant (nuclear) or intermittent (most renewable) sources of energy as fossil fuel sources are depleted or phased out. They almost certainly represent the future of motoring.

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HOLA444

I don't think that the electricity for millions of cars is capable of being generated and I don't think that the grid can handle it either.

But that aside - I live in a terraced house and I can't always park outside my house so how can I recharge my electric car, and even if I can park, what about people tripping over the extension lead as they walk up and down the street?

Exactly, very good questions. Which is why the electric technology will only really come into its own for driverless cars which can be constantly going off and topping up during the day and night between call-outs. The whole problem of not being able to park or even stop outside your house will ultimately disappear as "parking" as such will cease to be a concept.

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HOLA445

I don't think that the electricity for millions of cars is capable of being generated and I don't think that the grid can handle it either.

But that aside - I live in a terraced house and I can't always park outside my house so how can I recharge my electric car, and even if I can park, what about people tripping over the extension lead as they walk up and down the street?

And that is for the UK. What about the U.S? How many cars are there in that nation? 100+ million?

The more I look at battery powered pure EVs the more I think my Polaroid camera analogy holds up. Yes the technology in the latest cars (e.g Tesla) is very Oooooh Ahhhhh Geee Wizzzz and so on, but the real world practicalities (of the mundane, but funny, sort you mention) mean that on more careful reflection it seems much harder to see them ever taking more than a very small portion of the car market. UNLESS TPTB enact policies/laws that will mean that mass ownership of private vehicles will decrease - and motoring will only be enjoyed by the affluent?!

Looking at the Wikipedia page for the Tesla, I see that total U.S sales are less than 25,000 as of Dec 2013. A drop in the ocean for a market of 100+ million cars. What is their share price/company market valuation at the moment? I suspect its priced to assume they will be dominating the U.S car market? A good candidate for a short sell?

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HOLA446

On the contrary, EVs promise to be a critical factor in the switch to nuclear and/or renewable energy sources. They have the potential to provide a major contribution to the demand management that is needed in order to make best use of constant (nuclear) or intermittent (most renewable) sources of energy as fossil fuel sources are depleted or phased out. They almost certainly represent the future of motoring.

But it will require a MASSIVE expansion of the powerstation capacity and the Grid? No? Who will bear the cost of that expansion?

What about the various other costs in producing these cars? How many MILLIONS of tonnes of lithium will need to be mined? Will that be cheap? both environmentally and financially.

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HOLA447

But it will require a MASSIVE expansion of the powerstation capacity and the Grid? No? Who will bear the cost of that expansion?

What about the various other costs in producing these cars? How many MILLIONS of tonnes of lithium will need to be mined? Will that be cheap? both environmentally and financially.

Yes, it will require a large expansion in grid capacity at some point, but there is an awful lot of capacity that goes unused except on the coldest of winter afternoons. This means that the current grid can easily cope with a considerable expansion in the use of EVs so long as they are mostly charged overnight. Some extra generating capacity will, of course, be required, but it need not all be available on demand, thus making the use of nuclear and renewable sources more practical.

Battery and fuel-cell technology is another kettle of fish, but AFAIK, there are no major show-stoppers on the horizon at the moment. Yes, EVs are not without their own economical and environmental issues, but then, what isn't?

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HOLA448

Yes, it will require a large expansion in grid capacity at some point, but there is an awful lot of capacity that goes unused except on the coldest of winter afternoons. This means that the current grid can easily cope with a considerable expansion in the use of EVs so long as they are mostly charged overnight. Some extra generating capacity will, of course, be required, but it need not all be available on demand, thus making the use of nuclear and renewable sources more practical.

Battery and fuel-cell technology is another kettle of fish, but AFAIK, there are no major show-stoppers on the horizon at the moment. Yes, EVs are not without their own economical and environmental issues, but then, what isn't?

Sorry but this doesnt convince me. I want to see at least some 'back of the envelope' calculations to back up these 'don't worry' assertions.

I think you are too readily dismissing/underestimating the costs involved in expanding the grid and power supply capacity to the extent that would be required to electrify a significant portion (let alone all!) of the national fleet of non-commercial road vehicles.

As an example, a quick Google check tells me (unless I have misunderstood in my speed reading of the info) that global reserves of Lithium are estimated at less than 15 million tonnes? Current annual global production is 600,000 tonnes? A Tesla car (and the assumption being that other cars will be of the same sort of level of use) uses about 400kg of Lithium? In other words 1 tonne of Lithium will be required for roughly every three electric cars.

This means that, assuming 15 million tonnes of reserves, there is only enough Lithium to make 5-ish million electric cars?! No?

Lets assume that, in due course, as price rises new reserves/sources are found and exploited (just like in the oil industry) and that total global reserves of Lithium are TEN times this amount (i.e 150 million tonnes). That still means only(!) 50 million lithium battery powered cars - way less total petrol/diesel cars on the roads worldwide at the moment.

Again, none of this takes into account environmental costs (offsetting some or all of the benefit gained by using renewable energy sources to produce the leccy to drive the cars!???) or the rising costs as the Lithium gets scarcer?

Would welcome some grid/power generation sums presented by some of the resident techie posters here, to see just how viable electrification of national car fleets really is.

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HOLA449

On the contrary, EVs promise to be a critical factor in the switch to nuclear and/or renewable energy sources. They have the potential to provide a major contribution to the demand management that is needed in order to make best use of constant (nuclear) or intermittent (most renewable) sources of energy as fossil fuel sources are depleted or phased out. They almost certainly represent the future of motoring.

Or.......perhaps the future of motoring is that a much smaller percentage of the population will be motorists at all!?

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HOLA4410

http://www.batteryvehiclesociety.org.uk/bvsorguk/portal/

Saw one being charged at the hospital this week. Took a photo. Didn't we have a thread about it somewhere with points to be awarded?

Yes, I started the thread. To score a point you have to photograph a car being recharged at a motorway service station. 3 points if you see both charging spaces being used at the same time. The current score is 0 for everyone.

However, if I get my way, I might just score the first point taking a picure of my own Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV if I'm allowed one as my next company car. It's hybrid and although it only does 35 mpg on motorways, I've managed to reduce the number of long journeys I make but as I always stop a couple of times when I'm driving south to check emails and make a couple of calls it means I'd always be able to charge it for free and get a decent parking space too. My company car tax would plummet into the bargain. On the downside they're not very fast and so I'd have to stop driving like a maniac.

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HOLA4411

They almost certainly represent the future of motoring.

EVs have been the future of motoring for at least forty years.

And, in a way, that's true; no-one is going to be running an ICE vehicle on the surface of Mars or the Moon any time soon. But I'll be amazed if EVs make up even 50% of vehicles on Earth in another forty years unless we start making them nuclear powered.

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HOLA4412

Yes, it will require a large expansion in grid capacity at some point, but there is an awful lot of capacity that goes unused except on the coldest of winter afternoons. This means that the current grid can easily cope with a considerable expansion in the use of EVs so long as they are mostly charged overnight. Some extra generating capacity will, of course, be required, but it need not all be available on demand, thus making the use of nuclear and renewable sources more practical.

Battery and fuel-cell technology is another kettle of fish, but AFAIK, there are no major show-stoppers on the horizon at the moment. Yes, EVs are not without their own economical and environmental issues, but then, what isn't?

Any chance of addressing my concerns in the post above?

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HOLA4413

Sorry but this doesnt convince me. I want to see at least some 'back of the envelope' calculations to back up these 'don't worry' assertions.

I think you are too readily dismissing/underestimating the costs involved in expanding the grid and power supply capacity to the extent that would be required to electrify a significant portion (let alone all!) of the national fleet of non-commercial road vehicles.

As an example, a quick Google check tells me (unless I have misunderstood in my speed reading of the info) that global reserves of Lithium are estimated at less than 15 million tonnes? Current annual global production is 600,000 tonnes? A Tesla car (and the assumption being that other cars will be of the same sort of level of use) uses about 400kg of Lithium? In other words 1 tonne of Lithium will be required for roughly every three electric cars.

This means that, assuming 15 million tonnes of reserves, there is only enough Lithium to make 5-ish million electric cars?! No?

Lets assume that, in due course, as price rises new reserves/sources are found and exploited (just like in the oil industry) and that total global reserves of Lithium are TEN times this amount (i.e 150 million tonnes). That still means only(!) 50 million lithium battery powered cars - way less total petrol/diesel cars on the roads worldwide at the moment.

Again, none of this takes into account environmental costs (offsetting some or all of the benefit gained by using renewable energy sources to produce the leccy to drive the cars!???) or the rising costs as the Lithium gets scarcer?

Would welcome some grid/power generation sums presented by some of the resident techie posters here, to see just how viable electrification of national car fleets really is.

I think, checking over this given I was speed reading very late at night etc, that this is an order of magnitude too much? (i.e 10-ish times to high). In which case the subsequent car battery production limits get raised 10 fold.

That said the figures would still be close to the limits of current global car stocks AND assumes no lithium gets diverted/used for the many other already existing uses of that material. So, in away, the basic premise/question re: the viability of electrifying global car fleets with lithium based batteries stands.

The exception to that being that there is, apparently, a superior higher energy density lithium battery waiting in the wings to replace lithium-ion? Something called lithium-air?

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HOLA4414

<SNIP>

I have been led to understand that the National Grid has relatively little spare capacity - and any masss adoption of electric vehicles (i.e cars being charged regularly everyday in homes up and down the country, etc) would require a gargantuan expansion of the grid and electricity generating capacity??!! No?

The other impracticality, only barely lightly touched on in some replies I have seen, relates to the issue of inevitable incidents of drivers 'running out of juice' at the most inopportune/inconvenient moment or location. <SNIP>

Whatever happened to fuel cell based cars? Seemed to hear so much about them, it seems, just a few distant years ago. Never hear them mentioned anymore - instead its all pure EVs a la the Tesla.

EVs are generally charged up overnight when there is spare capacity. (Or during the day using solar panels as EV owners tend to double up). Next iteration of mass market EV should have a real life range of 150 miles so won't be plugged in every night anyway.

Car breakdown services have already introduced a mobile top up service. Though it'll be quicker to get a tow to a rapid charger.

http://www.rac.co.uk/press-centre/press-releases/rac-launches-first-mobile-electric-vehicle-chargin

http://www.theaa.com/breakdown-cover/news/aa-gears-up-for-electric-car-breakdowns.html

Nissan offer a free flatbed service when running out of electrons. No idea what the other manufacturers offers.

Toyota have now announced their fuel cell vehicle will be on sale in April 2015.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/26/business/international/japan-bets-big-on-cars-powered-by-hydrogen-fuel-cells.html?_r=0

But priced at silly money and it'll be cheaper to buy and run a Tesla Model S.

I agree fuel cells are a more promising technology.

Fuel cells are a waste of research money and the only people who want it are big oil companies to keep them in business. Do you really want to carry on driving to a top up station or just plug in at home when you're asleep? A Tesla can now do 300 miles.

Agreed that solutions need to be found / govt mandated for people without access to home chargers.

Even IF the masses of everyday drivers, up and down the country, each had a plug socket (and long enough leads) to charge up their car in the company car park during the working day.....does anyone really think that companies are going to bear this extra electricity demand out of their own pockets? or just end up billing their staff (at no doubt some premium to the actual cost the company pays!)

Companies have to charge as electricity top up at work is counted under tax rules as benefit in kind. I get billed a nominal amount for the year (£30).

On the other hand tax rules also allow you to claim the same business mileage rates as an ICE when using your EV.

And that is for the UK. What about the U.S? How many cars are there in that nation? 100+ million?

The more I look at battery powered pure EVs the more I think my Polaroid camera analogy holds up. Yes the technology in the latest cars (e.g Tesla) is very Oooooh Ahhhhh Geee Wizzzz and so on, but the real world practicalities (of the mundane, but funny, sort you mention) mean that on more careful reflection it seems much harder to see them ever taking more than a very small portion of the car market. UNLESS TPTB enact policies/laws that will mean that mass ownership of private vehicles will decrease - and motoring will only be enjoyed by the affluent?!

Looking at the Wikipedia page for the Tesla, I see that total U.S sales are less than 25,000 as of Dec 2013. A drop in the ocean for a market of 100+ million cars. What is their share price/company market valuation at the moment? I suspect its priced to assume they will be dominating the U.S car market? A good candidate for a short sell?

Last month, Tesla have opened their charging patents in order to get their tech adopted by the rest of the industry as the standard protocol.

http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/all-our-patent-are-belong-you

Think of all that licensing revenue if the mainstream manufacturers uses the same tech on their production platforms - discussions have already started with the others. The share price will go to the moon.

Yes, I started the thread. To score a point you have to photograph a car being recharged at a motorway service station. 3 points if you see both charging spaces being used at the same time. The current score is 0 for everyone.

However, if I get my way, I might just score the first point taking a picure of my own Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV if I'm allowed one as my next company car. It's hybrid and although it only does 35 mpg on motorways, I've managed to reduce the number of long journeys I make but as I always stop a couple of times when I'm driving south to check emails and make a couple of calls it means I'd always be able to charge it for free and get a decent parking space too. My company car tax would plummet into the bargain. On the downside they're not very fast and so I'd have to stop driving like a maniac.

It's getting quite busy on motorway rapids that Ecotricity are now doubling up the rapid chargers at their sites.

The Outlander PHEV looks really interesting and great decision to price it as the same as the diesel version. Apparently selling like hot cakes.

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HOLA4415

1) EVs are generally charged up overnight when there is spare capacity. (Or during the day using solar panels as EV owners tend to double up). Next iteration of mass market EV should have a real life range of 150 miles so won't be plugged in every night anyway.

2) Last month, Tesla have opened their charging patents in order to get their tech adopted by the rest of the industry as the standard protocol.

http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/all-our-patent-are-belong-you

Think of all that licensing revenue if the mainstream manufacturers uses the same tech on their production platforms - discussions have already started with the others. The share price will go to the moon.

My thoughts......

1) Once again please supply at least some cursory facts/figures re: current spare capacity of the grid and power generating facilities - rather than all these blanket assertions The core question still stands. Will these assertions re: 'spare capacity' still stand IF the bulk of the national fleet of private vehicles are electrified? Even if charging is done at night!

2) The Tesla statement (from the link) makes no mention of licencing? It talks of waiving the rights under the patents? If one relinquishes their patents how can you charge a licencing fee/royalty from your competitors??!! I saw the share price action on the recent announcement of Tesla apparently going to build the worlds largest battery fab plant. Nothing proprietary involved? Noting to stop competitors making their own batteries? No 'barrier to entry' by them? and yet share price soared as if Tesla would be the only player in town!

Nice as they are the Tesla models are, unashamedly, aimed at the luxury end of the car market and not the VW Polo or Ford Fiesta end - and yet their market cap, apparently, puts them in the league of the major automotive manufacturers? In the short term at least Tesla has a hint of bubble/mania valuation? No?

Will the masses be driving around in EV versions of a Fiesta? or will they be driving Tesla class cars?!

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HOLA4416

On the contrary, EVs promise to be a critical factor in the switch to nuclear and/or renewable energy sources. They have the potential to provide a major contribution to the demand management that is needed in order to make best use of constant (nuclear) or intermittent (most renewable) sources of energy as fossil fuel sources are depleted or phased out. They almost certainly represent the future of motoring.

EVs are the future as due to EU regs, manufacturers have to get their average fleet production emissions to meet the 2020 limits of 95g CO2 per km. Similar regs are being applied in the US. The whole industry has to move in this direction.

Hence, the term compliance car has been coined for cars that are solely produced to meet targets with little thought of actual day to day usability (ie no rapid charging on the Ford EV).

https://www.theparliamentmagazine.eu/articles/special-report/strasbourg-round-2020-target-reduce-co2-emissions-new-passenger-cars

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HOLA4417

EVs are the future as due to EU regs, manufacturers have to get their average fleet production emissions to meet the 2020 limits of 95g CO2 per km. Similar regs are being applied in the US. The whole industry has to move in this direction.

Hence, the term compliance car has been coined for cars that are solely produced to meet targets with little thought of actual day to day usability (ie no rapid charging on the Ford EV).

https://www.theparliamentmagazine.eu/articles/special-report/strasbourg-round-2020-target-reduce-co2-emissions-new-passenger-cars

EVs are not the future as due to reality - that is to say, dwindling fossil fuel reserves, lack of alternatives (who wants nuclear after Fukushima?), lack of money for investment in both generating capacity and the grid.

The point is often overlooked that the transition from wood to coal took place due to coal being much more abundant in energy returned after energy invested on getting it, and oil likewise. with oil at the beginning of the 20th century the energy return on enrgy invested (EROEI) was 100: 1. That's almost free energy - the ratio has diminished but there's no similar abundant source of energy in sight.

The huge EROEI was able to pay for the massive costs of transition to a mobile society - cars, roads, suburbia etc. The EROEI isn't there for any alternative to pay for this dream of EVs.

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HOLA4418

My thoughts......

1) Once again please supply at least some cursory facts figures re: current spare cpacity of the grid and power generating facilities - rathe rthan all these blanket assertions The core question still stands. Will these assertions re: 'spare capacity' still stand IF the bulk of the national fleet of private vehicles are electrified? Even if charging is done at night!

>>> I think it would be overestimating the requirements assuming the grid demand would be ash high at that point in the furutre as it is now. A few iterations of new electric cars will I think push the market down the ultralight route, by then many cars being automated anyway. That could provide maybe a 50% increase again in performance and efficiency as the more you drop the overall weight the more you can downscale the weight in other components. There will be much more renewable energy around distributed across the country. I think the much larger problem would be being able to provide home heating from electric rather than gas.

2) The Tesla statment (from the link) makes no mention of licencing? It talks of waiving the rights under the patents? If one relinquishes their patents how can you charge a licencing fee/royalty from your competitors??!! I saw the share price action on the recent announcement of Tesla apparently going to build the worlds largest battery fab plant. Nothing proprietary involved? Noting to stop competitors making their own batteries? No 'barrier to entry' by them? and yet share price soared as if Tesla would be the only player in town!

>>>>> I think they just want to be a large supplier and owner of the infrastructure. Having the largest plants puts you in the best poistion for that. To a certain extent they would be mad not to spend the money in their capital valuation to carve a niche for themelves. Not just the battery plant thatis huge, when Tesla obtained their factory/site they made sure it was big enough for a very long period of growth, could be a smart move.

Nice as they are the Tesla models are, unashamedly, aimed at the luxury end of the car market and not the VW Polo or Ford Fiesta end - and yet their market cap, apparently, puts them in the league of the major automotive manufacturers? In the short term at least Tesla has a hint of bubble/mania valuation? No?

>>> Cheaper model out this or next year I think. What isn't at bubble valuations at the moment with central banks drenching the market?

Will the masses be driving around in EV versions of a Fiesta? or will they be driving Tesla class cars?!

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HOLA4419
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HOLA4420

1) Once again please supply at least some cursory facts/figures re: current spare capacity of the grid and power generating facilities - rather than all these blanket assertions The core question still stands. Will these assertions re: 'spare capacity' still stand IF the bulk of the national fleet of private vehicles are electrified? Even if charging is done at night!

According to this graph:

uk_electricity_seasonal_demand_profiles.

Maximum winter demand in the UK reaches about 60 GW in the afternoon, falling to about 40 GW during the period from about 11pm to 7am. The grid must therefore have a transmission capacity of at least 60 GW, which means that 60 GW - 40 GW = 20 GW is available as spare transmission capacity for charging EVs during the night. A glance here indicates that the typical overnight charging rate of an EV is 3.3 kW. Hence, so long as they were charged overnight, the grid could support 20 GW / 3.3 kW = about 6 million EVs without any modification.

Generation is, of course, another question. Without a major expansion in nuclear and/or renewable energy sources, we'll be burning a lot more coal and gas in those power stations that would otherwise be idle for most of the time.

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HOLA4421
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HOLA4422
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HOLA4423

Even IF the masses of everyday drivers, up and down the country, each had a plug socket (and long enough leads) to charge up their car in the company car park during the working day.....does anyone really think that companies are going to bear this extra electricity demand out of their own pockets? or just end up billing their staff (at no doubt some premium to the actual cost the company pays!)

Even if the altruistic employer doesn't charge, the state will nail the employee with BIK. Nothing surer.

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HOLA4424

Sorry but this doesnt convince me. I want to see at least some 'back of the envelope' calculations to back up these 'don't worry' assertions.

I think you are too readily dismissing/underestimating the costs involved in expanding the grid and power supply capacity to the extent that would be required to electrify a significant portion (let alone all!) of the national fleet of non-commercial road vehicles.

As an example, a quick Google check tells me (unless I have misunderstood in my speed reading of the info) that global reserves of Lithium are estimated at less than 15 million tonnes? Current annual global production is 600,000 tonnes? A Tesla car (and the assumption being that other cars will be of the same sort of level of use) uses about 400kg of Lithium? In other words 1 tonne of Lithium will be required for roughly every three electric cars.

This means that, assuming 15 million tonnes of reserves, there is only enough Lithium to make 5-ish million electric cars?! No?

Lets assume that, in due course, as price rises new reserves/sources are found and exploited (just like in the oil industry) and that total global reserves of Lithium are TEN times this amount (i.e 150 million tonnes). That still means only(!) 50 million lithium battery powered cars - way less total petrol/diesel cars on the roads worldwide at the moment.

Again, none of this takes into account environmental costs (offsetting some or all of the benefit gained by using renewable energy sources to produce the leccy to drive the cars!???) or the rising costs as the Lithium gets scarcer?

Would welcome some grid/power generation sums presented by some of the resident techie posters here, to see just how viable electrification of national car fleets really is.

400kgs of Lithium for the battery? I would consider 400kgs a good target weight for the complete car. http://www.ultimatecarpage.com/car/547/Costin-Nathan-GT.html

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HOLA4425

Even IF the masses of everyday drivers, up and down the country, each had a plug socket (and long enough leads) to charge up their car in the company car park during the working day.....does anyone really think that companies are going to bear this extra electricity demand out of their own pockets? or just end up billing their staff (at no doubt some premium to the actual cost the company pays!)

The average daily commute is around 7miles. So UK seems ideally suited to EVs.

As others have pointed out to make them viable economically at today's cost (let's assume they'll become relatively cheaper) you really need to either do a higher mileage than that or keep them longer. Then it becomes a trad-off between batter life/cost of replacement battery. Cars today don't really rust so really ought to be run for 20-30yrs+ imo with cheap/easy to replace consumption parts.

I dare say AA/RAC will become emergency EV mobile charging units/generators. Is that much different to them carrying a battery charger/petrol can?

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