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That's a shame. 5 years down the line and houses are now more expensive as a result. The best opportunity was missed. In general houses now certainly aren't in a bubble nor are they overly expensive (imo) outside of London/SE. They may appear that way in the context of 80s/90s interest rates, but they're not when adjusted for current and likely future rates. % of income are actually quite reasonable. Wages according to the BoE will rise c 20% over the next 4-5 years and house price lending is nowhere near the limits they have just set.

For those people genuinely wanting to buy a home for the long term the conditions since 2009 have been favourable. Smart buyers know this.

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You post a lot of interesting stuff, but I just don't get where you are coming from here. Looking at Land Registry data for Manchester what I see is prices flat at 2005 levels since the falls stalled (for the time being) in 2009.

You want it both ways. You want your foresight acknowledged because house prices went up (without being in a bubble) but you want to disregard the bubble region that made the aggregate statistic rise...

I think you're wrong. I'll bet that relative to local incomes house prices outside the South East are still completely unaffordable, which is why we have month-on-month falls even though you can get never before in a lifetime 2-year fixed rates. In the South East you have madness and the delusion of crowds - the divorce from fundamentals remains in place and that is why it is a bubble.

I'm perfectly happy to accept the fact that I may be totally wrong. If 4% wage growth turns up before an hpc then I was wrong, but I still fancy my chances.

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It aint over till its over.

Houses are overly expensive in the context of historic interest rate 'norms', yes. Today we learned some more detail about how much the base rate WILL rise and over what time period. Anyone buying within the last few years is leveraged to an extreme, praying that rates won't move. Well, they will. We heard they will. And when they start low, they don't need to move much to impact heavily on the over leveraged.

From current 0.5 to stated 2.5 is 2% increase. When you consider mortgage rates are around 4% (at best from this perspective) that movement takes trackers from 4% to 6%, an increase of 50%. If you're on interest only you're in serious trouble if you bought at this 'best opportunity'.

Buy to letters buying at this 'best opportunity' are in some serious trouble, typically buy to let mortgages are interest only. A tenant is not going to stump up another 400 quid a month on a typical 800 quid a month rental within the next 3 years, 4% pay increase or no.

When the buy to letters exit in response to this, prices for everyone are going south. 2009 a best opportunity? It was only an opportunity to leverage yourself up to the hilt. If the base stays at 0.5% for the 25 years of your mortgage you're ok. Well, its not.

It aint over till its over.

Or a 400% increase - if you look at it the way I do. Not that I expect it any time soon. It would be welcome but it's jawboning to me.

RK 'forced to listen' to, was a compliment along the lines of 'take seriously', with regard to the calls you've made in other financial markets, and an attempt to calm things - not to escalate.

Oh well, I couldn't differ more with you that house prices aren't expensive. They are painfully so, in many areas I seek to buy in, and I'd like to think I'm slightly better positioned than the average buyer.

Owners need buyers to sell to. In that I include not just those carrying big mortgages, but those who own high end properties outright, who think they're worth fortunes.

I see properties hanging on market for years at mid-to-high end, with asking prices that are twilight zone, and I have good reason to expect more owners to come to market looking to sell, in the year ahead - including owners concerned there will be fewer upsizers because of MMR etc. I can't see enough upsizers for such homes, at their asking prices, and I don't see the job security/wage inflation you see. I know of people in their 50s, formerly partners and executives who haven't worked since their firms went under, or they were made redundant in 2008-11. Eating through their savings, in the homes they think are worth £500K-£1m. The banks are still stripping out middle tier executives to cut down on costs.

We've had emergency base rates and QE - and that had fed into a 5 year spell of HPI - people raiding their savings, yield chasers, htb sentiment fuelled second round of buyers at higher prices.

The buyer side is where I believe the crunch is coming from. I look at the buying side. Is the buying side strengthening at all? My view is it could unwind quite quickly. It wouldn't take much of a shock somewhere in the world, for some owners to accept less to exit their housing positions. Just a few such sellers, followed by more, brings down all house prices.

" are now seeing base rates still at 0.5%, real rates still negative, and the BoE essentially guaranteeing (as far as they ever would) a put under the market for the remainder of this cycle."

My view is such conditions have attracted lots of buyers willing to pay higher prices (not earning anything in bank / safer in property / BoE will do everything to support the housing market prices), but there may come a time there are not many such buyers remaining. And other individuals in the market will push up real interest rates by limiting their spending, affecting aggregate demand - to a point where sellers (and owners looking to sell) are chasing fewer pounds to spend, meaning owners fall through the floor as other owners get nervous, and sell for less.

How long have you owned your current home for? Carry on though. It's all fun to me. You say houses aren't in a bubble or overly expensive outside SE/London, and recognise you did call the 2009 reflation ahead of most others, but you also recognise conditions can change in time ahead. I'm concerned with all those known-knowns and unknown-unknowns that would make buying now, at these cheap prices, a big financial mistake. It's not just a matter of "Buy a house - get on with your life."

You're not 'forced to consider' my views or anyone elses.

All I ask is that you don't ad hom me.

It's not 'my view' that wages will rise 4% p.a. - that's the central view of the BoE. It's all there in the BoE papers I linked up earlier in the thread as expressed by the Governor of the BoE.

I agree completely that people should read the papers, look at the data and come to their own considered view for their personal circumstances. That's precisely why I'm asking you not to ad hom me for doing exactly that.

Re your point about central banks wanting to wrong foot the public - I think it's more that the public don't listen or read what the central bank are saying over a period of time. They're not good at reading the signals. The signals in Spring '09 were VERY louf and clear, and they that rates would stay low and asset prices would rise. They were spelling it out for you that it was the best time you were likely to get to buy property or other assets.

Unfortunately most people prefer not to listen to these tom tom drums, preferring to scream at the top of their voice for some other outcome. An outcome that ain't going to go their way. They take the wrong side of the trade at the wrong time.

That's a shame. 5 years down the line and houses are now more expensive as a result. The best opportunity was missed. In general houses now certainly aren't in a bubble nor are they overly expensive (imo) outside of London/SE. They may appear that way in the context of 80s/90s interest rates, but they're not when adjusted for current and likely future rates. % of income are actually quite reasonable. Wages according to the BoE will rise c 20% over the next 4-5 years and house price lending is nowhere near the limits they have just set.

For those people genuinely wanting to buy a home for the long term the conditions since 2009 have been favourable. Smart buyers know this.

Those of us pointing this out since 2009 have taken a great deal of flack for saying it - which is a shame for those people who have are now 5 years down the line and are now seeing base rates still at 0.5%, real rates still negative, and the BoE essentially guaranteeing (as far as they ever would) a put under the market for the remainder of this cycle.

That's how I see it. I'm not pulling it out of my ar5e. I'm using exactly the same information you have public access to. You've (presumably) chosen to draw a different conclusion. That's nothing whatsoever to do with me. I accept that the conclusion I've come to may well turn out to be wrong (I've only been right for 5 years, so not that long in the scheme of things and it was a very easy call imo - but it may not hold for say the next 5 years, who knows. I've outlined possible shocks and there will be others that aren't knowable). Please though, don't make assumptions based on my objective view, and refrain from personal attacks. They're unwarranted and unwelcome.

If you don't want to read my posts that's great. I couldn't care less. Put me on ignore. I'm sure I'll live.

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.......................... It's not just a matter of "Buy a house - get on with your life."

It most certainly is not. Do you need to buy a house to get on with your life? Of course not.

Incidentally, I too find estate agent style one liners such as "Paying your landlord's mortgage" and "Buy a house - get on with your life" extremely annoying, mainly because people use them on this forum in a childish goading way and I find childish goading extremely annoying.

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It most certainly is not. Do you need to buy a house to get on with your life? Of course not.

Incidentally, I too find estate agent style one liners such as "Paying your landlord's mortgage" and "Buy a house - get on with your life" extremely annoying, mainly because people use them on this forum in a childish goading way and I find childish goading extremely annoying.

Sorry, I think I do that :unsure:

I think we all know there is some truth in these statements, it's just they are used so often as simplistic arguments by the masses that don't seem to understand markets or economics. A bit like one I heard the other day 'What is gold good for? You can't eat gold'. Which is of course true but you can't eat money either, you exchange it for what you need.

I think we goad these statements because we find them extremely annoying!

It most certainly is not. Do you need to buy a house to get on with your life? Of course not.

Of course not. I would be happy with cheap rent and a LL that doesn't bother me for the rest of my days :)

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