FreeTrader Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 (edited) HMRC released property transactions statistics for May 2014 this morning and the figures show the recent decline in house sales is continuing. After seasonal adjustment, there were 99,320 transactions in May compared to a revised figure of 102,920 in April and 109,140 in February. The year-on-year increase remains positive however, at 10%. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/monthly-property-transactions-completed-in-the-uk-with-value-40000-or-above Meanwhile the British Bankers Association reports that seasonally adjusted mortgage approvals for house purchase dipped slightly last month, but not as much as expected. May's approvals number of 41,757 is the lowest since August last year, although it is still 12.6% up on May 2013.BBA data also shows a sharp drop in approvals for remortgaging. May's figure of 18,206 is the lowest since Feb 2013.An even greater drop was recorded in approvals for ''other secured lending', and the figure of 5,168 is the lowest ever in the BBA series. In Jan 2007 for example there were 50,637 approvals in this category. https://www.bba.org.uk/news/press-releases/may-2014-figures-for-the-high-street-banks/#.U6k4cbEd1tE Edit: Mar --> Feb Edited June 24, 2014 by FreeTrader Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 Is "other secured lending" MEW? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 Is "other secured lending" MEW? Is that a rhetorical question ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 Seems stran ge the BBc said yesterday that approvals would keep rising. Are they a VI group ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 Seems stran ge the BBc said yesterday that approvals would keep rising. Are they a VI group ? Is that a rhetorical question? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 Is that a rhetorical question? Looks like there's been some kind of a peak and it's all collapsing.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeTrader Posted June 24, 2014 Author Share Posted June 24, 2014 Is "other secured lending" MEW? It'll be stuff such as 'loans for home improvement', secured against the property. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeTrader Posted June 24, 2014 Author Share Posted June 24, 2014 Here's a chart of the BBA approvals for 'Other Secured Lending': Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 It'll be stuff such as 'loans for home improvement', secured against the property. What a great idea,,,why those ever increasing houses prices...it's like a never ending well of free cash. how could it ever go wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 Looks like there's been some kind of a peak and it's all collapsing.... Looks to me as if 4rse Spawn will need borrow more than expected every month to prevent the economy collapsing with it... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 Here's a chart of the BBA approvals for 'Other Secured Lending': Looks like it dropped off a cliff before dropping off another cliff this year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeTrader Posted June 24, 2014 Author Share Posted June 24, 2014 BBA approvals for remortgaging: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quicken Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 Here's a chart of the BBA approvals for 'Other Secured Lending': Now that is a pretty chart. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digsby Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 It is looking more and more like the mortgage market topped out around February this year, bolstering my prediction that August transaction volumes are going to be dire. It's odd though, the transaction volumes in that first chart are way off my Land Registry data. If I plot the same time series, the shape is the same, but at around half the volume. I know the LR data does not include transactions from reposessions, but that can't account for half the volume. Take Jan 2013 for example which the HMRC has at about 80,000. LR has it at 43,374 and when I seasonally adjust that it comes to 58,763. And this is all transactions not just those > £40k. I'm at a loss to explain why. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeTrader Posted June 24, 2014 Author Share Posted June 24, 2014 It is looking more and more like the mortgage market topped out around February this year, bolstering my prediction that August transaction volumes are going to be dire. It's odd though, the transaction volumes in that first chart are way off my Land Registry data. If I plot the same time series, the shape is the same, but at around half the volume. chart (3).png I know the LR data does not include transactions from reposessions, but that can't account for half the volume. Take Jan 2013 for example which the HMRC has at about 80,000. LR has it at 43,374 and when I seasonally adjust that it comes to 58,763. And this is all transactions not just those > £40k. I'm at a loss to explain why. Bear in mind that HMRC transactions data cover the whole of the UK, whereas Land Reg is just England & Wales. Scotland + NI accounted for 10,700 of the seasonally adjusted transactions in May. Furthermore the LR volumes in its monthly reports aren't complete - more transactions will be registered over time. This being the case let's take a month where the LR figs should now be up to date: Feb 2013. LR has 45,236 transactions. HMRC has 64,270 (NSA), and if we knock off Scotland/NI we get 58,730. This still leaves a fairly hefty disparity, which surely can't be explained by repossessions and the other categories that LR ignores. I've remarked on this difference in the past and I've never seen a good explanation for it, although as you can see from that linked post, a number of people here have noted that their house sale has never appeared in the LR stats. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sancho Panza Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 It is looking more and more like the mortgage market topped out around February this year, bolstering my prediction that August transaction volumes are going to be dire. It's odd though, the transaction volumes in that first chart are way off my Land Registry data. If I plot the same time series, the shape is the same, but at around half the volume. chart (3).png I know the LR data does not include transactions from reposessions, but that can't account for half the volume. Take Jan 2013 for example which the HMRC has at about 80,000. LR has it at 43,374 and when I seasonally adjust that it comes to 58,763. And this is all transactions not just those > £40k. I'm at a loss to explain why. The LR doesn't count commercial transactions,repo's,right to buy,trustees vesting interests,gifts etc etc.Also LR only does England and Wales. HMRC includes all of the UK over £40,000 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digsby Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 Bear in mind that HMRC transactions data cover the whole of the UK, whereas Land Reg is just England & Wales. Scotland + NI accounted for 10,700 of the seasonally adjusted transactions in May. Furthermore the LR volumes in its monthly reports aren't complete - more transactions will be registered over time. This being the case let's take a month where the LR figs should now be up to date: Feb 2013. LR has 45,236 transactions. HMRC has 64,270 (NSA), and if we knock off Scotland/NI we get 58,730. This still leaves a fairly hefty disparity, which surely can't be explained by repossessions and the other categories that LR ignores. I've remarked on this difference in the past and I've never seen a good explanation for it, although as you can see from that linked post, a number of people here have noted that their house sale has never appeared in the LR stats. Yeah I was wondering whether it was Scotland/NI after I posted, was hoping somebody would chip in and confirm that, thanks, and I'm aware LR lags which is why I chose Jan 2013. It does still leave a hole though doesn't it. Any idea what they mean by "sale subject to an existing mortgage"? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digsby Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 The LR doesn't count commercial transactions,repo's,right to buy,trustees vesting interests,gifts etc etc.Also LR only does England and Wales. HMRC includes all of the UK over £40,000 It might be interesting to plot the difference over time, see if it reveals any trends in the types of transactions, who's buying how much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 What a great idea,,,why those ever increasing houses prices...it's like a never ending well of free cash. how could it ever go wrong. Yep, truly crazy. So glad I steered clear of big loans to live in property. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sancho Panza Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 If it was a normal transaction it should be included, cash sale or otherwise. Certain transactions are excluded from the LR price paid data: You're not the first person who's posted here that their sales transaction hasn't showed up in the price paid stats. There's a difference of about 15,000 transactions per month between the LR transaction stats and those published by HMRC based on Stamp Duty returns. Maybe the exclusions listed above account for all of these, but it does seem a lot. It might be interesting to plot the difference over time, see if it reveals any trends in the types of transactions, who's buying how much. http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/vsob1/divorces-in-england-and-wales/2012/info-divorces.html There were 118,000 divorces in England and Wales in 2012,plus common law break ups.Presumably many involving a property. Shared equity/ownership schemes would also not show up in the LR data if I'm not mistaken. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeTrader Posted June 30, 2014 Author Share Posted June 30, 2014 The Bank of England's monthly Lending to Individuals report shows that mortgage approvals for house purchase fell again last month, down from 62,806 in April to 61,707 in May. The figure was in line with market expectations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeTrader Posted June 30, 2014 Author Share Posted June 30, 2014 Total mortgage approvals in May (house purchase + remortgage + other secured loans) fell below 100,000 again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Very good news (for hpc, not Osborne and Carney). MMR to blame, or did we in fact hit the natural ceiling of affordability in February anyway? One thing's for sure, if the trend continues Osborne's going to have to borrow a lot more to maintain the recovereh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crashmonitor Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Just one more effect of not allowing market discovery post 2009....given the size of the housing stock we should be looking at towards two million transactions per year which would facilitate a degree of freedom of movement of the labour force, which 1.2 million transactions clearly doesn't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digsby Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Looking good FT. The questions remain: is it due to the administrative overhead of MMR, is it due to falling numbers of willing and/or able (under MMR) buyers, more importantly perhaps, will the FPC's announcement that they predict (and support) a further 20% of HPI over the next couple of years be interpreted as a buy signal or a sell signal? The next couple of months are going to be interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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