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A.steve

Forward Guidance - To Be Read Carefully.

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MMR and (independent) tightening of high loan-to-income lending is being cited as the reason for the expected significant dropoff in Q3. Bring it on.

I think the MMR thing and all this speak is really just setting the scene for a big fall. The politicians and the bankers and their advisor must know what's really going on. The banks and anyone with ahlf a brain has had the chance to sell off their property portfolios and cash in.

Prices are at silly levels, disposable incomes keeps dropping yoy.

I think we all know what happen s next.

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I noticed today that the Yorkshire BS has put up its cheapest rates, narrowing the gap between 75% LTV and 85% LTV - to me, this makes taking a bigger LTV loan more attractive - no point giving them more deposit if the rates don't improve noticably...

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BBC: House price inflation is running away at 18%!! Approvals were expected to fall in the second quarter of the year, although in reality this did not happen. BOE is going to do something about it. P.s It's all under control - trust your government.

Reuters: Borrowing in April & May was HUGE BUBBLE amounts. Lending is going to fall significantly July, August, September due to new MMR rules introduced in April and pre-April approvals expiring. P.S BOE might cap LTV if they feel like at the next meeting after morning coffee.

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"Mortgage demand 'to keep rising'"

Someone's lying !!!

I think it is something more subtle than that. Are we talking about "informal demand" or "economic demand"? That the former is true seems inevitable... and the latter doesn't really make sense when you're talking about credit as if it were a product.

I am willing to borrow an arbitrarily large amount - assuming acceptable terms... those terms would involve limited liability and zero interest rates. This doesn't mean that there is "adequate supply" to satiate demand on those terms. For this reason, I think we have to assume that 'demand' in this sense means people who want to borrow money - even if they can't. I expect demand to soar - just as supply contracts.

I liked that - with only a quick glance - the news I posted could be read as if mortgage rates are set to fall - whereas (given the usual rules of supply and demand, given an increase in demand relative to a significantly reduced supply) one should probably expect rising mortgage rates at the same time as falling approvals.

Edited by A.steve

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As I posted in the other thread the reporting is all over the place on this. Statistical fog the CML says. It probably needs someone to dig down into the survey.

Edited by Ash4781

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I think it is something more subtle than that. Are we talking about "informal demand" or "economic demand"? That the former is true seems inevitable... and the latter doesn't really make sense when you're talking about credit as if it were a product.

I am willing to borrow an arbitrarily large amount - assuming acceptable terms... those terms would involve limited liability and zero interest rates. This doesn't mean that there is "adequate supply" to satiate demand on those terms. For this reason, I think we have to assume that 'demand' in this sense means people who want to borrow money - even if they can't. I expect demand to soar - just as supply contracts.

I liked that - with only a quick glance - the news I posted could be read as if mortgage rates are set to fall - whereas (given the usual rules of supply and demand, given an increase in demand relative to a significantly reduced supply) one should probably expect rising mortgage rates at the same time as falling approvals.

Exactly how I read it. Demand might be high for young men for sports cars, but that doesn't mean many of them are in the position to actually buy one.........

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I'm sorry for my stupidity if I'm wrong, can someone set me straight, but I thought Q1 2014 was Jan, Feb, Mar - not Jan, Feb, Dec 2013

The figures you posted in another thread show up the lie in the article:

May 2014 was up 12% on May 2013.

April 2014 was up 36% on April 2013.

March - 37%

Feb - 43%

Jan - 33%

And for a bit of seasonal perspective:

April 2013 - May 2013 - 21%

The spin is so obvious it's frustrating but I'm optimistic in equal measure that things could well be turning.

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Exactly how I read it. Demand might be high for young men for sports cars, but that doesn't mean many of them are in the position to actually buy one.........

Been there: Enter Toyota with affordable, reliable, cars... the cost of quality "whips" plummet. :)

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I've put together a few charts from the CML Gross Mortgage Lending figures.

Unfortunately, I can't find a source for volumes (per month) as I'd ideally like to include them. If anybody knows where they are available I'd appreciate it if you could point me there.

One thing to note is that the May figure is an estimate only, based on a survey carried out by the CML. All other months are not estimates and based on data from the BoE.

The first chart puts the £16.5 billion into a historical context. The dark blue line is the direct numbers from the CML, whereas the light blue line is inflation adjusted using the CPI, and seasonally adjusted using a Tramo Seats algorithm (5 years is a bit too little for it really).

chart.png

These next 2 charts are the same metrics, but the first is the MoM % change, and the 2nd is the Y0Y % change.

chart (1).png

chart (2).png

It should be pretty easy to spot both the unseasonably good April we've just had, and the extent of the sow down in the rate of growth in May, that I've alluded to in various threads.

post-38621-0-15825500-1403551755_thumb.png

post-38621-0-59017200-1403551904_thumb.png

post-38621-0-78178800-1403551919_thumb.png

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Once the masses discover and share which of the banks follow MMR rules to the letter, and which of the banks flout the rules almost completely, MMR will have little effect on those determined enough to buy recklessly.

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Once the masses discover and share which of the banks follow MMR rules to the letter, and which of the banks flout the rules almost completely, MMR will have little effect on those determined enough to buy recklessly.

for some reason that statement reminds me of the Northern rock.

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Once the masses discover and share which of the banks follow MMR rules to the letter, and which of the banks flout the rules almost completely, MMR will have little effect on those determined enough to buy recklessly.

Such borrowers/buyers don't exist. Didn't you know borrowers are never wrong?

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Once the masses discover and share which of the banks follow MMR rules to the letter, and which of the banks flout the rules almost completely, MMR will have little effect on those determined enough to buy recklessly.

If that happens they won't be able to handle the volume and will bring their offerings into line with the others.

I think affordable housing is on the way, but it will take some time.

This is still an interesting time for those of us who want responsible borrowing to allow purchase of a reasonable home. Post election id expect some further acceleration in the right direction.

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