No Housing Shortage?

[ex-green]

No shortage?

ipm bbc radio 4 at 5;45 in the morning (insomnia again)

young couple with a child

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b046p544

generation rent, bbc radio 4 today

@01;48;30

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0474wjm

No shortage? I guess only for the young then. And not so young as well.

[ex-green]

And of course these two families are not alone. There are MILLIONS like them. most young people in fact. Everybody I know is living in crap accommodation.

Last weekend one of your posters, Dorkins, was absolutely spot on...

..........................

What does 'run out' mean? People really don't want to live on the street so they find ways to make do. They live in their childhood bedroom throughout their 20s and beyond, they live in shared houses well into their 30s, they live in tiny 1 bedroom flats (often created by landlords subdividing family homes) at ages when previous generations at a similar point in their careers and at a similar point on the income spectrum would have had something resembling a family home.

.........................

Nail on the head!

Of course there is a shortage of houses! How come there are still people saying there isn't a shortage??

[MattW]

It really is a disgusting state of affairs! There needs to be mass house building programme post haste.

I'm a 'generation rent' member. I'm quite resigned to the fact that I may be renting for the rest of my life. However, I worry about paying that rent come retirement.

[ex-green]

It really is a disgusting state of affairs! There needs to be mass house building programme post haste.

I'm a 'generation rent' member. I'm quite resigned to the fact that I may be renting for the rest of my life. However, I worry about paying that rent come retirement.

Disgusting is the right word.

We do need mass building , but what hope do we have if even in this message board most people still think there isn't a shortage??

I've been reading this board for a few weeks now, and I can't believe how few posters get it. I'm really depressed about it.

First I thought the main problem was that most people believed that we didn't have the space to build more homes, that the country was full, CONCRETED OVER! That's why I started another topic showing how little space houses take up, just 1.1% of England, and that we had LOTS of space to build enough houses for everybody.

But then in these past weeks I read lots of topics and people saying there is plenty of houses! Where?? Yes old people have huge houses, but what can we do about it? Should we kick them out??? People are not dying young like years ago, before modern medicine. So we need to build more houses for the young generation! What is so hard to get?? And why not if we have so much space??

[wherebee]

Disgusting is the right word.

We do need mass building , but what hope do we have if even in this message board most people still think there isn't a shortage??

I've been reading this board for a few weeks now, and I can't believe how few posters get it. I'm really depressed about it.

First I thought the main problem was that most people believed that we didn't have the space to build more homes, that the country was full, CONCRETED OVER! That's why I started another topic showing how little space houses take up, just 1.1% of England, and that we had LOTS of space to build enough houses for everybody.

But then in these past weeks I read lots of topics and people saying there is plenty of houses! Where?? Yes old people have huge houses, but what can we do about it? Should we kick them out??? People are not dying young like years ago, before modern medicine. So we need to build more houses for the young generation! What is so hard to get?? And why not if we have so much space??

Emigrate. Build up your skills, and leave whilst you are young enough. They won;t stop you coming back if things improve, but it will get harder to leave every year you wait.

[Millaise]

Ex-green> Of course there is a shortage of houses! How come there are still people saying there isn't a shortage??

I think part of why people say there is no shortage is because the #rooms/#people is higher than it ever has been [fact needs checking].

Also, in the radio clips, it wasn't that accommodation wasn't available to those families, it was that it was unreasonably expensive, either to rent or to buy (from which you might infer there is a shortage).

But, Mark Wadsworth said on here that the price of a house is set by the Government. All they need to do is set prices lower by removing the tax breaks on BTL, taxing the capital gain on selling your home, taxing the earning potential of you land, water down planning restrictions to bring down the price of land etc etc but of course the flak from this can't be countenanced.

[billybong]

It sounds like another of those bald claims continually made in the media without broadcasting any substantiation. Did they quote any facts and figures? Do they ever.

So if there's no housing shortage then TPTB's claim that housing shortage explains the crazy house prices is shown to be a false claim.

Interestingly household sizes seem to have been relatively static for many years.

http://

www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171766_259965.pdf

Table 1

Edited June 22, 2014 by billybong

[ex-green]

Emigrate. Build up your skills, and leave whilst you are young enough. They won;t stop you coming back if things improve, but it will get harder to leave every year you wait.

But I have friends relatives a job a girlfriend and she also has friends relatives and a job. Why should we be forced to leave just because the nimbies government and old fvcking farts don't want to allow any more houses in the whole fvcking country?? That is even MORE disgusting than forcing us to live in filthy rabbit hutches.

Last week in another topic someone said we should leave our town for a cheaper one. Now you say we should leave the country??

Perhaps you were just trying to give us a good advice, for our own good, I don't know, but you have to admit that there is something deeply unfair about it.

[MARTINX9]

But I have friends relatives a job a girlfriend and she also has friends relatives and a job. Why should we be forced to leave just because the nimbies government and old fvcking farts don't want to allow any more houses in the whole fvcking country?? That is even MORE disgusting than forcing us to live in filthy rabbit hutches.

Last week in another topic someone said we should leave our town for a cheaper one. Now you say we should leave the country??

Perhaps you were just trying to give us a good advice, for our own good, I don't know, but you have to admit that there is something deeply unfair about it.

Yes - why should you have to leave the country when you may have family connections and friends here. There is actually more to life than housing.

You could go to Bulgaria and buy a mansion for £20k - and then what?

Edited June 22, 2014 by MARTINX9

[JustYield]

Emigrate. Build up your skills, and leave whilst you are young enough. They won;t stop you coming back if things improve, but it will get harder to leave every year you wait.

Yes. But on the other hand they won't let any retirees actually starve if they've had to rent all their lives. You'd think.

[Bland Unsight]

Yes. But on the other hand they won't let any retirees actually starve if they've had to rent all their lives. You'd think.

Unless a lot of things change a lot and soon that supposition is going to be tested.

[ex-green]

It sounds like another of those bald claims continually made in the media without broadcasting any substantiation. Did they quote any facts and figures? Do they ever.

So if there's no housing shortage then TPTB's claim that housing shortage explains the crazy house prices is shown to be a false claim.

Interestingly household sizes seem to have been relatively static for many years.

I understand that the government and the banks can keep house prices high if they keep giving out lots of cheap mortgages to every tom dick and harry , but that is not happening any more is it?

And what about rents? Why are rents so f-ing expensive if there is no housing shortage? And for rabbit hutches! Where are the large family homes? Even flats are too expensive! Old people live in large empty family homes, but they keep campaigning against new developments. It happened in our own town! A few months ago we got a leaflet through the door from our local Residents Association about a meeting to organise opposition against a new development. I really wanted to go but i was so f-ing angry that my girlfriend didn't allow me to, cause she was afraid we would get into trouble, being against everybody else there. I still regret not having gone though. I really should have gone.

[rentbug]

Why are rents so f-ing expensive if there is no housing shortage?.....

Because people are prepared to pay them. And/or the taxpayer through housing benefit. Rents are quite cheap in places where there is no work and you wouldn't want to live. The "shortage" is not of housing but of affordable accomodation.

[JustYield]

I understand that the government and the banks can keep house prices high if they keep giving out lots of cheap mortgages to every tom dick and harry , but that is not happening any more is it?

And what about rents? Why are rents so f-ing expensive if there is no housing shortage? And for rabbit hutches! Where are the large family homes? Even flats are too expensive! Old people live in large empty family homes, but they keep campaigning against new developments. It happened in our own town! A few months ago we got a leaflet through the door from our local Residents Association about a meeting to organise opposition against a new development. I really wanted to go but i was so f-ing angry that my girlfriend didn't allow me to, cause she was afraid we would get into trouble, being against everybody else there. I still regret not having gone though. I really should have gone.

You should have gone. Has this generation given up on politics?

[ex-green]

Ex-green> Of course there is a shortage of houses! How come there are still people saying there isn't a shortage??

I think part of why people say there is no shortage is because the #rooms/#people is higher than it ever has been [fact needs checking].

Also, in the radio clips, it wasn't that accommodation wasn't available to those families, it was that it was unreasonably expensive, either to rent or to buy (from which you might infer there is a shortage).

But, Mark Wadsworth said on here that the price of a house is set by the Government. All they need to do is set prices lower by removing the tax breaks on BTL, taxing the capital gain on selling your home, taxing the earning potential of you land, water down planning restrictions to bring down the price of land etc etc but of course the flak from this can't be countenanced.

Rooms/people - really? It does need checking. Then again, lots of old people have lots of rooms, and they are not dying any more. What I want to know is what is the rooms/people for young families. And compare that with 10 or 20 years ago. Where are the large family homes?? Not with the families.

That is it - families can't afford family homes any more. That is my main point. Not even renting them.

[ex-green]

Because people are prepared to pay them. And/or the taxpayer through housing benefit. Rents are quite cheap in places where there is no work and you wouldn't want to live. The "shortage" is not of housing but of affordable accomodation.

But if they allow more houses to be build then tenants will have more choice , and we would be able to negotiate rents down a bit! Now it is totally a landlords market. Allow more building and the landlords grip on the market weakens! And tenants hands get stronger! Of course it is a power game. Now, with the shortage, landlords have the upper hand!

[Millaise]

Interestingly household sizes seem to have been relatively static for many years.

Av. Household Size

1961 3.1

1971 2.9

1981 2.7

1991 2.5

2001 2.4

2011 2.4

Cheers, Billybong. The ONS has a note that the reduction is down to decrease in the number of children. That could still be going on today...I know I can't sensibly afford to keep kids or house them.

[ex-green]

You should have gone. Has this generation given up on politics?

I know. I really regret not having gone.

Having said that, suppose it happens again, like another leaflet arrives, I really don't know if I'll be able to go , cause I'm getting really worked up by this crap. Sometimes I imagine what would happen, and I am almost sure I would start by trying to be very polite, and explain things and all, but then i doubt i would be able to keep it cool for more than 10 min! LOL. Because I KNOW they would not listen, and would not get it, at all, from so many different angles. It happens all the time when i talk to friends and relatives ''of a certain age''. They just DO NOT get it.

[Millaise]

But if they allow more houses to be build then tenants will have more choice , and we would be able to negotiate rents down a bit! Now it is totally a landlords market. Allow more building and the landlords grip on the market weakens! And tenants hands get stronger! Of course it is a power game. Now, with the shortage, landlords have the upper hand!

I haven't fully thought this out, but say there were 10% more houses than needed, and the majority of landlords were uber-rich and owned a large paid-off property portfolio (that is the way things are going). I wonder whether it would be in the landlord's interest to just have 1 in 10 of his properties vacant, and receive 90% of the income he used to get, rather than lowering the rent? Lowering the rent would set in trend a price correction as the value of the houses themselves corrected (maybe a 50% fall) so he would be worse off by lowering the rent. Ultimately, there would still be 10% of houses empty because no one is going to want more than one to live in, so his vacancy rate would remain the same. So maybe a house building program will have very little effect, especially at the paltry rate of one or two hundred thousand a year when the housing stock is currently 23 Million.

Builders might similary decide to accept a fraction of their new estates being empty, rather than selling for less and starting a competitive devaluing that ultimately doesn't sell any more homes for them.

[Digsby]

I haven't fully thought this out, but say there were 10% more houses than needed, and the majority of landlords were uber-rich and owned a large paid-off property portfolio (that is the way things are going). I wonder whether it would be in the landlord's interest to just have 1 in 10 of his properties vacant, and receive 90% of the income he used to get, rather than lowering the rent? Lowering the rent would set in trend a price correction as the value of the houses themselves corrected (maybe a 50% fall) so he would be worse off by lowering the rent. Ultimately, there would still be 10% of houses empty because no one is going to want more than one to live in, so his vacancy rate would remain the same. So maybe a house building program will have very little effect, especially at the paltry rate of one or two hundred thousand a year when the housing stock is currently 23 Million.

Builders might similary decide to accept a fraction of their new estates being empty, rather than selling for less and starting a competitive devaluing that ultimately doesn't sell any more homes for them.

Well we already know that builders trickle new houses on to the market, there was that report fairly recently, and since it makes no economic sense for them to build at the same slow rate then that must mean they leave them empty.

I talk a lot about building not being the solution. When I say that, I don't necessarily mean that there are plenty of houses and we don't need to build more, but rather that a shortage of houses isn't the problem when it comes to the price bubble and therefore building more isn't the solution.

We do need to build more, but not in ever decreasing size and quality to keep them affordable, which really just supports the price bubble, in a similar way that shared equity does.

It's not addressing the main issue. That needs to be sorted first and then once that is done, build good sized quality houses. They'd be affordable *and* good value which is what is needed.

[Dorkins]

Has this generation given up on politics?

British democracy is 30 million homeowners and 15 million renters deciding whether to increase house prices.

[Eddie_George]

British democracy is 30 million homeowners and 15 million renters deciding whether to increase house prices.

30 million "homeowners" who are too think to realise that if they want to "climb the housing ladder" when prices are rising, they'll need to borrow more money than if prices are static or falling.

Edited June 22, 2014 by Eddie_George

[porca misèria]

30 million "homeowners" who are too think to realise that if they want to "climb the housing ladder" when prices are rising, they'll need to borrow more money than if prices are static or falling.

Not to mention many who have no problem with house prices.

My next-door neighbours bought a house for their then-19-year-old daughter last year. He's a dockyard worker, she works part-time at Sainsburys. I guess they just haven't wasted all their money over the years, though I know he has an expensive (and fascinating) hobby. And of course, this isn't London.

[awaytogo]

It really is a disgusting state of affairs! There needs to be mass house building programme post haste.

I'm a 'generation rent' member. I'm quite resigned to the fact that I may be renting for the rest of my life. However, I worry about paying that rent come retirement.

No shortage of houses, just to many people, if it was viable to build more houses they would be built and sold,

[dances with sheeple]

But if they allow more houses to be build then tenants will have more choice , and we would be able to negotiate rents down a bit! Now it is totally a landlords market. Allow more building and the landlords grip on the market weakens! And tenants hands get stronger! Of course it is a power game. Now, with the shortage, landlords have the upper hand!

Yes, sure they do. How long until the bank calls in your loans do you think?