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TheCountOfNowhere

Bbc Reporting Cml Figures Steady

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http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/3944

"Gross mortgage lending held steady in May and was an estimated £16.5 billion, according to the Council of Mortgage Lenders. This is identical to April’s gross lending total and is 12% higher than May last year (£14.8 billion)."

"Market indicators point to a slowdown in activity levels, in part associated with new mortgage rules, but it is unclear how lasting this will be."

Their definiton of stable and mine is diffenet:

Apr 16,508 May est 16,500

May is DOWN.

And that's just their estimation.

Get the bad good news out before the real figures come in perhaps ?

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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A month or so ago I predicted that lending would remain positive / up until the pre MMR approvals had been spent (August).

I also suggested that we could see a boom extra as pre-MMR 'victims' desperately outbid each other before their mortgage approvals expired.

Gross lending is a 3 month lagging indicator, approvals are a leading indicator.

By December we will see the new regulation repealed / scaled back because property will be negative on a quarterly basis. My prediction is London will be down about 5%, the rest of the country will be stable to minus 1%.

And by election time :)

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A month or so ago I predicted that lending would remain positive / up until the pre MMR approvals had been spent (August). I also suggested that we could see a boom extra as pre-MMR 'victims' desperately outbid each other before their mortgage approvals expired. Gross lending is a 3 month lagging indicator, approvals are a leading indicator. By December we will see the new regulation repealed / scaled back because property will be negative on a quarterly basis. My prediction is London will be down about 5%, the rest of the country will be stable to minus 1%. And by election time :)

And by election time....there will be tanks on the streets of London ?

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parts of london are already 5% down

in parts of walthamstow where houses coming on for nigh on £400k a few months ago they're now down to £325k

stratford is going the same way

haringey showed a 4.something% drop on the latest rightmove figures

i'm sure this is being repeated all over london

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A month or so ago I predicted that lending would remain positive / up until the pre MMR approvals had been spent (August). I also suggested that we could see a boom extra as pre-MMR 'victims' desperately outbid each other before their mortgage approvals expired. Gross lending is a 3 month lagging indicator, approvals are a leading indicator. By December we will see the new regulation repealed / scaled back because property will be negative on a quarterly basis. My prediction is London will be down about 5%, the rest of the country will be stable to minus 1%. And by election time :)

And by election time there will be mandatory 5x salary multiple MINIMUM on mortgages, extra money to be spent on cars, electronics and houses. This will be coupled with some kind of implicit guarantee so the banks can risk-weight these toxic loans at 30%. With all this free money raining from the skies David Ca-moron will get a massive majority. What could possibly go wrong?

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And by election time there will be mandatory 5x salary multiple MINIMUM on mortgages, extra money to be spent on cars, electronics and houses. This will be coupled with some kind of implicit guarantee so the banks can risk-weight these toxic loans at 30%. With all this free money raining from the skies David Ca-moron will get a massive majority. What could possibly go wrong?

But who would want to win an election in such circumstances? May 8th, 2015 would be Groundhog Day but with an additional £2 trillion in debt to rollover on a continuous basis.

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But who would want to win an election in such circumstances? May 8th, 2015 would be Groundhog Day but with an additional £2 trillion in debt to rollover on a continuous basis.

I thought 2010 was the poison chalice. A combination of global malaise/no accountability for any of these western leaders with seriously flawed economic polices; and Labour having an un-electable leader means the Tories are reasonably placed. I wouldn;t expect cast iron Dave to lie down going into May next year.

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http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/3944

"Gross mortgage lending held steady in May and was an estimated £16.5 billion, according to the Council of Mortgage Lenders. This is identical to April’s gross lending total and is 12% higher than May last year (£14.8 billion)."

"Market indicators point to a slowdown in activity levels, in part associated with new mortgage rules, but it is unclear how lasting this will be."

Their definiton of stable and mine is diffenet:

Apr 16,508 May est 16,500

May is DOWN.

And that's just their estimation.

Get the bad good news out before the real figures come in perhaps ?

Come on, a 0.05% reduction is pretty stable in my book.

It will be interesting to see what happens now that the peak house-buying months are now coming to an end, just as talk of monetary tightening and introducing lending caps bites. I don't think we'll see that reflected in the published figures for a few months yet.

The froth had to be knocked off the top of the market - asking prices in my old neighbourhood literally went up by 50% in a year for 3-bed houses. I think recent talk has had some effect, but even without the froth, London prices are still 3 times what they should be based on earnings. The front page of the Telegraph business section yesterday (bought it to get 'free' water from WH Smith) stated that the average London house price is now 14x salary based on ONS figures. The fact that the story was on the front page made me think the tide may be turning in sentiment, but as with the last Mortgage Market Review in (I think ) 2011, the politicians will look at what the real effect of capping non-liar loans at 3.5 or even 5x salary would be (i.e. volumes collapsing, sales that do complete taking place at much reduced prices) and back away slowly, leaving it for the next govt, and the next govt, and the next govt, to deal with.

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