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Thought someone else would have posted this up by now. I don't tend to read zerohedge that often, and don't agree with all of this article (prospects for some banks, and luxury retail could continue to be good imo, into a massive HPC), but do feel we've got older owners and their impossibly ridiculous values they think their houses are worth, under siege.

Values of homes in any given location are set at the margin, between just a few buyers and sellers. If they transact at lower prices it doesn't just bring those houses down in value. Investors forever preventing the slack being picked up? I don't think so.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-14/generational-short-banks-wall-street-housing-and-luxury-retail-are-doomed

Low interest rates have encouraged owner-occupiers and investors to bring their purchases forward, but that eventually creates a void that must be filled.
If it can’t be filled — and it is unlikely that anything can replace investor speculation — then loan approvals will tank and house prices, which are demand-driven, will inevitably follow suit.
Certainly, investor demand is unlikely to be replaced by loan approvals to first home buyers.

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I don't tend to read zerohedge that often, and don't agree with all of this article (prospects for some banks, and luxury retail could continue to be good imo, into a massive HPC), but do feel we've got older owners and their impossibly ridiculous values they think their houses are worth, under siege.

I'm not sure the zerohedge take is entirely accurate, it's worth clicking through to the original excerpts which have millennials (there's some variation between academic institutions but this seems to be those born in either 1980 or 1982 onwards, so Gen Y and some of what is elsewhere classified as young Gen X) as pragmatic, tech-savvy, socially responsible and distrustful. The implication is that the combination of these three factors will lead to more socially responsible banks/retailers with very different governance structures than today, kept in check by vigilant, critical and (tech-enabled) knowledgable consumers. It's not predicting the death of Wall Street or the destruction of wealth as per zerohedge (whom I think are conflating "wealth" with the size of the money supply in any case) just the downsizing of the role and importance of the banking sector. If correct it could be a seismic shift away from the pre-eminence of financialization over every aspect of our society, including housing, and towards a focus on the actually productive (i.e. real) economy. All to the good in my opinion.

My favourite quote from the governance study:

Their three-year research study of more than 10,000 Millennials also found that of the ten least-liked brands among members of this generation four belonged to the nation’s most powerful banks—J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Corp., Wells Fargo & Co., and Citigroup. Seventy-one percent told the researchers that they would “rather go to the dentist than listen to what banks are saying.”

:lol:

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The have nots hold the trump card as they are the foundations of the pyramid scheme when they stop playing the game the fun begins HTB is the UK`s bribe to tempt them back into the playground but at some point that will not be enough

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The have nots hold the trump card as they are the foundations of the pyramid scheme when they stop playing the game the fun begins HTB is the UK`s bribe to tempt them back into the playground but at some point that will not be enough

Good comment.

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Asking prices (and sentiment) in London .... can't say the word .... the F word ... need to try and spell it F .... E .. L L, there I've said it asking prices in London fell this month by 0.5%. Must the the weather and the World Cup. Shipley ?? from right move on TV news saying prices are static in Kensington and Chelsea but still rising everywhere else ... trying not to look too concerned, but I suspect he actually was.

Shipley ? Me? I can only assume you never read the article at the link in the OP

Edited by long time lurking

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I don't agree that this is (or is becoming) the case. It implies a conscious, willing decision. I don't believe the generation in question has any real choice.

The symptoms look the same, the mindset is probably quite accurately described, but I feel that it comes from a position of impotence, not choice. The distinction will likely be important in how willing people will be to accept the situation in the long term.

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Asking prices (and sentiment) in London .... can't say the word .... the F word ... need to try and spell it F .... E .. L L, there I've said it asking prices in London fell this month by 0.5%. Must the the weather and the World Cup. Shipley ?? from right move on TV news saying prices are static in Kensington and Chelsea but still rising everywhere else ... trying not to look too concerned, but I suspect he actually was.

I don't get why Shipside would be concerned about falling prices. He's not an estate agent earning a % of the sale price, is he?

If prices fall by 30%, houses would still be listed on rightmove by (fewer) estate agencies, would they not?

Edited by Reck B

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The boomers do have one thing to say that is really hard to explain- in their youth many of these people were out on the streets protesting things that were far less important to their immediate well being than the issues facing the youth of today- but where are the street protests of this generation?

Maybe the web is not the catalyst for change we have all been fondly imagining it to be- instead it might be acting like a giant heat sink, sucking in the rage and dissipating it across thousands of forums like this one and so rendering it null.

Social media provides the illusion of activism without the end result.

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The Peasants' Revolt happened after the Black Death, when the peasants had the most leverage, and thus best conditions, they had had for hundreds of years, not before the Black Death, when they were in an objectively worse situation (and when there were more of them!).

People with free resources (time, money, lack of opportunity cost in the form of expected state/social sanction for protesting) will use them to better themselves. People without those free resources to use on rabble-rousing will almost literally need to have nothing to lose before they kick off.

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The boomers do have one thing to say that is really hard to explain- in their youth many of these people were out on the streets protesting things that were far less important to their immediate well being than the issues facing the youth of today- but where are the street protests of this generation?

I think six months for stealing a bottle of water put a bit of a dampener on the above

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I think six months for stealing a bottle of water put a bit of a dampener on the above

They were breaking heads in the 1960's but people were still out there protesting- it's genuinely hard to figure why we don't see the young of today doing the same- they have a lot more skin in the game now. Imagine what the students of the 60's would have done to any government that tried to introduce tuition fees- they would not have let that happen-it would have been war.

Something odd has occurred here that I can't explain- perhaps the reality is that today's young people find themselves already ensnared in an orwellian construct by the ubiquity of an information technology that never forgives and never forgets? So today to protest is to commit a kind of social suicide because 'the system' will retain forever that act of defiance and extract a lifelong cost that is simply too high to bear?

I don't know-I am not of this generation- has anyone else any thoughts on why the idea of 'rebellious youth' reads like an anachronism, a relic of another era?

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I think six months for stealing a bottle of water put a bit of a dampener on the above

I was amazed at how draconian some of these sentences are.

This guy made a bit of a name for himself on Facebook and Youtube etc has been jailed for 18 months. He didn't throw anything himself but 'had to bear responsibility for the group he was in'

http://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/internet-video-star-mr-oioi-7188996

Chopping hands off for stealing a slice off bread can't be far off.

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They were breaking heads in the 1960's but people were still out there protesting- it's genuinely hard to figure why we don't see the young of today doing the same- they have a lot more skin in the game now. Imagine what the students of the 60's would have done to any government that tried to introduce tuition fees- they would not have let that happen-it would have been war.

Something odd has occurred here that I can't explain- perhaps the reality is that today's young people find themselves already ensnared in an orwellian construct by the ubiquity of an information technology that never forgives and never forgets? So today to protest is to commit a kind of social suicide because 'the system' will retain forever that act of defiance and extract a lifelong cost that is simply too high to bear?

I don't know-I am not of this generation- has anyone else any thoughts on why the idea of 'rebellious youth' reads like an anachronism, a relic of another era?

Out of genuine interest, can you name any major youth protests from the 60s or 70s that had any leverage on anything important? Edited by Si1

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I don't get why Shipside would be concerned about falling prices. He's not an estate agent earning a % of the sale price, is he?

If prices fall by 30%, houses would still be listed on rightmove by (fewer) estate agencies, would they not?

Right move has probably taken a few commercial risks of its own expanding faster than its competitors in doing so, that could only have worked off the property market boomed

They would have to have internal company cheerleaders in order to promote this strategy, shipside is just there by positive selection, therefore

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Out of genuine interest, can you name any major youth protests from the 60s or 70s that had any leverage on anything important?

Well not from 60/70's but I'd say mass Community Charge protests forced the Tories to change tack and helped to oust Thatcher though by that time she'd gone a bit bonkers anyway.

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Well not from 60/70's but I'd say mass Community Charge protests forced the Tories to change tack and helped to oust Thatcher though by that time she'd gone a bit bonkers anyway.

That wasn't just the young though. The discontent wasn't generational. In other words Thatcher was forced to backtrack for to genuine democratic pressure, not a loud minority

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They were breaking heads in the 1960's but people were still out there protesting- it's genuinely hard to figure why we don't see the young of today doing the same- they have a lot more skin in the game now. Imagine what the students of the 60's would have done to any government that tried to introduce tuition fees- they would not have let that happen-it would have been war.

Something odd has occurred here that I can't explain- perhaps the reality is that today's young people find themselves already ensnared in an orwellian construct by the ubiquity of an information technology that never forgives and never forgets? So today to protest is to commit a kind of social suicide because 'the system' will retain forever that act of defiance and extract a lifelong cost that is simply too high to bear?

I don't know-I am not of this generation- has anyone else any thoughts on why the idea of 'rebellious youth' reads like an anachronism, a relic of another era?

I think it`s mostly the simple fact that the propaganda's got better.

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I was amazed at how draconian some of these sentences are.

This guy made a bit of a name for himself on Facebook and Youtube etc has been jailed for 18 months. He didn't throw anything himself but 'had to bear responsibility for the group he was in'

http://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/internet-video-star-mr-oioi-7188996

Chopping hands off for stealing a slice off bread can't be far off.

I think it`s a case of scaring the shit out of the youth of today prevention is better than cure and all that

TPTB are also very aware/scared of the speed a minor incident/demonstration can spiral out of control due to social media and that can happen far faster than the police could ever increase their response

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Well not from 60/70's but I'd say mass Community Charge protests forced the Tories to change tack and helped to oust Thatcher though by that time she'd gone a bit bonkers anyway.

Community Charge was just tweaked to make it almost imperceptibly progressive instead of being a pure flat tax and then introduced anyway with the name 'Council Tax'.

Edited by Dorkins

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Well not from 60/70's but I'd say mass Community Charge protests forced the Tories to change tack and helped to oust Thatcher though by that time she'd gone a bit bonkers anyway.

The problem the government had was that people just didn't pay it. How do you lock up 4 million people

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Out of genuine interest, can you name any major youth protests from the 60s or 70s that had any leverage on anything important?

It's hard to quantify how much effect they had- would the war in Vietnam have gone on longer? Would tuition fees have been introduced far sooner in the UK had the 60's generation of students been less vocal?

My point really was not that these protests were effective-only that they happened- the kids of that generation hit the streets en masse to protest against things they felt were unjust or unfair- the same does not seem true today- for reasons that are hard to pin down.

Maybe the simple answer is that values have changed- and today's youth don't really care enough to protest about such things. You can hardly blame them when they have been brainwashed for their entire lives that the only things that matter are what car you drive and what brand of training shoe you wear.

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Maybe the simple answer is that values have changed- and today's youth don't really care enough to protest about such things. You can hardly blame them when they have been brainwashed for their entire lives that the only things that matter are what car you drive and what brand of training shoe you wear.

Reasons not to protest:

  • GCHQ knows where you live.
  • Even peaceful protests are quickly criminalised using trespass laws or agent provocateurs.
  • Just one mistaken arrest can destroy careers and makes international travel difficult, even if you're innocent.
  • That arrest stays with you forever - even 'spent' convictions stay on the database.
  • Juries are increasingly dispensed with or directed by the judge - they don't tell you about jury nullification.
  • The media has its own agenda and either avoids reporting or does its best to turn public opinion against protestors.

And finally:

  • They don't listen anyway - Iraq war protest, anyone?

I don't blame people for figuring it's not worth it.

In the 60s and 70s there wasn't the same kind of database state we have now. Loads of people got done for drugs or whatever, moved on, and are now comfortably middle class. I think things are very different now - the internet ensures that everything stays not just public, but trivially accessible, forever. Just look at the number of people asking Google to remove things.

Also I think that the world is so unfair that if you let yourself care about it you're in for a lifetime of anger and disappointment. Most people are safely controlled - busy worrying about the next mortgage payment, or next month's rent, or their job. And peer groups react badly to people who tell them they should be worrying about bigger problems. People like to think that their friends have the same values, and that doesn't usually include being a revolutionary, or even anything even slightly political.

People like to think they're doing well in life, and if you tell them they're being exploited and ripped off they'd rather not know.

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What's there to protest about anyway?

The article is about Gen-Y not meeting the demands to pay up for what older owners think their assets are worth.

If Gen-Y essentially opts out of the belief that financial security depends on buying a house with a large mortgage, then the U.S. housing market will have no sustainable foundation for price appreciation. Housing could easily decline by 50% in highly inflated markets.

The only think I've got to protest about is hpcers with no stomach for a crash - who don't recognise the imbalance in the market, what many complacent owners think their homes are worth, make up excuses for vulgar entitlement and those who've taken extreme debt positions and been given lots of time to sort themselves out.

I rely on market dynamics to prevail. We make our own decisions, and I choose financial savings and to be on buyer strike for any house at these price levels, and even 35% below these price levels.

'Gents, we are not in disarray! We are falling back. And, all the time, their
supply lines get longer. We must take them to the point where they start
to think about pulling back, then present them with the
possibility - the seeming possibility - of a knock-out blow. But it won't knock us out;
it knocks them out.' He looked round them.
The priests renters looked at the territory they had lost, and the fraction they had left, and
thought it was all over for them. He looked at his relatively unscathed divisions, his
fresh units, his crack squads, all positioned just where they should be, knives laid
against and inside the body of an over-extended, worn-out enemy, just ready to
cut... and thought it was all over for the Empire complacent owners.
-Use of Weapons
Edited by Venger

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