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Viewings Have Dried Up - So I Was Told This Morning


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HOLA441

Sorry about your Dad, stressful enough I'm sure, without sibling issues.

On the above point though. The goverment has a responsiblity to sort out precisely nothing. I've been through 2 crashes 90's and 2008 (if we can count that) and if people are repossessed, they have to take responsibility for themselves. They simply end up in the same position as any renter does now.

Home-owners who can't see any pressures why house prices might crash, are so complacent they have the view gubbermint cuddles everyone; "here's your new place former homeowner."

And of course it's always a situation where the home-owners have zero equity in this scenario, and no job/income and no savings.

Never a situation where they could afford to lower price and accept say £50K, or £100K less than what neighbours think their homes are all worth, bringing all houses down in value, if really needing to sell, and still afford to downsize to a flat. And then it's can't see base rates rising (either can I), but mortgage rates a different matter.

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HOLA445

It seems the anecdotes hinting that demand fell off the edge of a cliff sometime in the middle of May are increasing daily.

I think some of it may be seasonal - if you agree a sale in May, you probably need to be around in August to complete - if you don't, you can spend the surveyors fees on a summer holiday in August instead...

I know that's has influenced my thinking after I failed to haggle a seller down to a IMO reasonable price...

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HOLA446

I think some of it may be seasonal - if you agree a sale in May, you probably need to be around in August to complete - if you don't, you can spend the surveyors fees on a summer holiday in August instead...

I know that's has influenced my thinking after I failed to haggle a seller down to a IMO reasonable price...

Here is the average number of transactions in the years 2001-2013, broken down by month of year.

chart (5).png

So if August is seasonally the largest month in terms of transactions, then if the 3 month lag you postulate is true, May would have to be the biggest month in terms of agreed sales.

If the anecdotes about a lack of demand starting last month are representative, it's also suggesting that the numbers of transaction this August are going to be dire.

chart (5).png

post-38621-0-49123400-1402649612_thumb.png

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HOLA447
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HOLA448

Here is the average number of transactions in the years 2001-2013, broken down by month of year.

attachicon.gifchart (5).png

So if August is seasonally the largest month in terms of transactions, then if the 3 month lag you postulate is true, May would have to be the biggest month in terms of agreed sales.

If the anecdotes about a lack of demand starting last month are representative, it's also suggesting that the numbers of transaction this August are going to be dire.

well, obviously....the passport office cant cope with August Holidays...people have sold in May and are trying to go away.

Edited by Bloo Loo
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HOLA449

It seems the anecdotes hinting that demand fell off the edge of a cliff sometime in the middle of May are increasing daily.

Round our way there was a flurry of "sales" at mad prices at the end of last year....most of them I saw with their SOLD boards have either gone back to For Sale or are still at sold. Nothing on rightmove/property bee was dropping in price.

Looking on rightmove/property bee there is no end to the over-priced rubbish hitting the market but loads of stuff is now dropping prices again and best of all, LOADS of sales falling through.

It does look to me like we are back to pre-FLS activity onl;y with a higher starting average asking price.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere
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HOLA4410

My father's house has been on the market for two months (he died in January), old person's bungalow in popular yorkshire village- no signs of life. We priced it according to recent sales of very similar houses in the same street

The house is suitable for boomer downsizers, but i suspect the ones who want to downsize cannot find any younger folk to pay their crazy prices.

Sorry to hear that. When I was buying my flat in 2001 I got so fed up with seeing flats on rightmove that had already sold that I started to only look at new instructions. When I couldn't see it in 2006 I reduced the price by £250 so it came as a new instruction. It got 2 people in a week.

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HOLA4412

I work for a plumbing products company, our products are mainly sold as replacement or refurbishment, we are not exposed to new build. The first 3 months of the year we were up on what was a very good year last year. Since April things have dropped badly so much so that trading is level with last year. We have stories of worse placed competitors dumping products in the market to make up for poor trading.

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HOLA4413

I work for a plumbing products company, our products are mainly sold as replacement or refurbishment, we are not exposed to new build. The first 3 months of the year we were up on what was a very good year last year. Since April things have dropped badly so much so that trading is level with last year. We have stories of worse placed competitors dumping products in the market to make up for poor trading.

Good to hear, but not so good for you . When it does finally collapse you will be back in business with a vengance though?

Edited by dances with sheeple
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HOLA4414

Another house in my estate has been sold subject to contract for 2 months. the neighbour of the house has told me that owner is waiting for contracts to exchange and he now wishes he asked for more. He also told me the owner had lot of btlers come and look at it and offer low prices.

I am really interested in this house and would consider buying It but it advertised 20k more than I can safely afford. I am really hoping that mmr screws things up for lot people as it maybe the only way I can afford my own place,

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HOLA4415

Doesn't need a trigger. only for the easy money to dry up. Could come from the stock market - if the market stayed pretty much statuc or just bobbed around for a decade or so the easy money flushed out of the system by certainlarge players would no longer be forthcoming. They will dump it when they have extracted the maximum upside and got joe public to buy into the peaks.

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HOLA4416

My father's house has been on the market for two months (he died in January), old person's bungalow in popular yorkshire village- no signs of life. We priced it according to recent sales of very similar houses in the same street

The house is suitable for boomer downsizers, but i suspect the ones who want to downsize cannot find any younger folk to pay their crazy prices.

Sorry about your loss debtlessmanc i went through the same last year.

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HOLA4417

He also told me the owner had lot of btlers come and look at it and offer low prices.

A friend of mine lives in a block of flats and as the only person on the management committee he gets to know what's happening. Over the last 10 years most of the flats have become BTL and apparently whenever another goes on sale lots of perspective BTL'ers turn up.

And he also says there's lots of of them waiting in the wings, ready to jump as soon as prices fall.

--

On a different note, the box flat I've been watching has just has it's price cut from OIEO £110K to OIEO £105k. Still way overpriced but it's a drop.

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HOLA4418
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HOLA4419

Problem with probate, I have to agree with siblings, one of whom is a g****y t**t. My dad bought it in 2004 and spent £15k on it. I would be happy to get the 2004 price tbh.

The reality of most of the Northern market...2004 price is pretty much where it's at outside the hot spots (like Hale).

We talk of a boom, yet prices trebled in every decade up north between 1964-2004 and then nothing these last ten years.

A bubble still not properly corrected maybe, but no boom yet. However like RK I wouldn't like to bet against the cycle.

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HOLA4420

The reality of most of the Northern market...2004 price is pretty much where it's at outside the hot spots (like Hale).

We talk of a boom, yet prices trebled in every decade up north between 1964-2004 and then nothing these last ten years.

A bubble still not properly corrected maybe, but no boom yet. However like RK I wouldn't like to bet against the cycle.

Keep drinking your Kool aid. Other good areas in the North West are also moving over 2007 peak now. Stockton Heath in Warrington for example. Others available.

Where there's work, prices are up. Just like London.

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HOLA4421

The reality of most of the Northern market...2004 price is pretty much where it's at outside the hot spots (like Hale).

We talk of a boom, yet prices trebled in every decade up north between 1964-2004 and then nothing these last ten years.

A bubble still not properly corrected maybe, but no boom yet. However like RK I wouldn't like to bet against the cycle.

Can't you please buy in one of these no-boom Northern areas, in one of the known bleakest areas? Like Middlesbrough or north shore terrace in Blackpool, next to the LHA housing.

Rather than the main north where many of us are hoping to buy, and have to hear this nonsense all the time about no bubble-no boom.

I note a small bungalow has just gone under offer a couple of doors down from where I live, the asking was 370k and it has been on for about a year. I do think this suggests the ripple is finally reaching the North Midlands. I didn't expect it to sell, but actually there isn't that much left for sale at the moment in my village near Nottingham.

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HOLA4422

And that's the one time your guard has slipped re all this "no bubble in the north", nonsense.

How many such posts? With 2007 regularly being the measure of what is not a bubble.

Some of your houses in the most deprived areas need to go back to 1964 values, to make them worth buying for some people. Not your 2004-2007 measure.

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HOLA4423

Keep drinking your Kool aid. Other good areas in the North West are also moving over 2007 peak now. Stockton Heath in Warrington for example. Others available.

Where there's work, prices are up. Just like London.

Stockton heath has had nutty prices for over 30 years, went to school there very over rated area, same with most of Warrington south of

the ship canal.

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HOLA4424

Nutty prices for 30 years- but no boom or bubble, even whilst they top out at even crazier prices, both sold and now even worse asking prices?

I note a small bungalow has just gone under offer a couple of doors down from where I live, the asking was 370k and it has been on for about a year. I do think this suggests the ripple is finally reaching the North Midlands. I didn't expect it to sell, but actually there isn't that much left for sale at the moment in my village near Nottingham.

Also it doesn't sound like it's too unwelcome a development for you ("finally reached") - as you keep denying prices are any problem in the north, and tatty little bungalows at £370,000 outside Nottingham. Pretty standard prices for all of South Manchester into much of Cheshire too; yet no problem, no bubble or boom.

Not you this time, but even where it is all no bubble/no boom £250,000 - £400K+ terraces, bungalows, semis.... we just we need to launch an education campaign for those holding the super-inflated assets, and plead for a future where prices don't go up any more. Make them understand their £500,000 house valued owned outright is a big con, from our position of long-term non-owning renters.

Even when those holding houses worth £1m refuse to sell/dowsize as there is no incentive. It's our duty, as they are innocent, both owners and those who took out jumbo mortgages. Non-owners to be sacrificed forever.

What rubbish. People don't buy houses to 'invest' in an 'asset'. People buy houses so they have somewhere to live that can't be taken away from them, and to escape the serfdom of renting. Eviction and homelessness is a real threat for people without a title deed.

Homeowners might have been conned into thinking that rising prices are a good thing, but that doesn't make it true. Most people I know with mortgages are petrified of negative equity - mostly because they paid too much for their house - but flat prices wouldn't do them any harm whatsoever. Except that rising prices are part of the myth of the 'property ladder' - people fail to realise that house price inflation just pulls the next rung higher out of reach.

The wealth effect is nonsense as you can't cash in your house unless you downsize. If you want a pension you need to contribute to one, not rely on someone buying your house for ten times what you paid for it.

These are the things we need to remind people of.

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HOLA4425

Nutty prices for 30 years- but no boom or bubble, even whilst they top out at even crazier prices, both sold and now even worse asking prices?

Frustrating is'nt it, How much longer this can go on is the 6 trillion/gazillion question???

In my little microworld the BTL brigade dont appear to be worried about these prices at all, they would like to buy

at these crackers prices its credit that now appears to be the problem for them, one I know wants the prices to go up more

so that the equity in his other lets goes up and he can borrow more!!!!......this really has to stop soon.

Think of the children you greedy bast***s.

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