Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Corruption

Iraq - The Black Swan Event

Recommended Posts

Being as Chinas Bubble, rising interest rates, EU meltdown etc etc... are all predicted they can't be classed as a "Black Swan" event i.e. something unexpected.

But could whats happening in Iraq over the past 24 hours be what is needed to crash this bizarre global market and thus the UK property market.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/10893693/Iraq-at-risk-of-civil-war-as-al-Qaeda-led-uprising-pushes-to-within-striking-distance-of-Baghdad.html

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'd been flirting with idea of going long again this week, boy am I glad I stayed in cash! We ought to see some tectonic moves in the market now, and a thousand blows to the shabby deceit of the Keynesian mafia.

Actually, this isn't entirely a Black Swan. The unexpected rapprochement between the US and Iran last year suggested the Obama administration was deeply fearful of the spread of Syrian/Qeada militancy. An improbable alliance of Iran and Iraq vs Saudi/Syria looks to be in the offing. $200bbl crude could be the least of our worries.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bad news, certainly, but not a black swan. Entirely expected in my mind for years. Other "black swans" that won't be:

- another spectacular attack somewhere in Europe

- medium size bank collapse in Asia due to a discovered fraud

- civil unrest in Asia

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's seems the BBC almost neglect to mention that these are some of the 'freedom fighters' that we are funding in Syria. Now they call them 'insurgents'

Edited by enrieb

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Poor old Haig who thinks Bashir Assad is a monster and is still pondering who to support in Syria. And now in a deeper quandary who to support in Iraq, now the beheading season has begun, has been heard to repeat the same old tired mantra along with his boss and co over and over again - Islam is a religion of peace, Islam is a religion of peace....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

More of a grey pigeon, this was a dead cert the day Millipede blocked intervention in Syria......

Miliband blocked bombing the Syrian gov who are fighting these Al Qaeda ISIS fighters. That action would have taken out the Syrian gov and supported the rebel extremists. This advance in Iraq would have happened even quicker if Miliband had given Labours approval to attack. Remember the US and other nations (the French particularly) were hours away from it. I was shocked a UK party leader blocked a military attack supported by the US.

Edited by sf-02

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Miliband blocked bombing the Syrian gov who are fighting these Al Qaeda ISIS fighters. That action would have taken out the Syrian gov and supported the rebel extremists. This advance in Iraq would have happened even quicker if Miliband had given Labours approval to attack. Remember the US and other nations (the French particularly) were hours away from it. I was shocked a UK party leader blocked a military attack supported by the US.

Er, no, the Russians blocked it. Millipede couldn't block a wet paper bag. As I recall John Kerry was asked at a press conference what it would take for the US not to bomb Syria and he said they would have to hand over all their chemical weapons within one week and added, "Of course they are not going to do that!" At which point the Russians said they would broker a hand-over deal and the Syrians said they could easily hand over their entire stockpile in a week. So the whole bomb Syria idea died a death. Behind the scenes the Russians were also threatening to invade Saudi if the US invaded Syria.

That was months ago. I believe Syria still has most of its chemical weapons.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

More of a grey pigeon, this was a dead cert the day Millipede blocked intervention in Syria......

You've got it the wrong way round chief (and really Russia blocked it).

Millipede opposed us funding the very same folk now making hay in Iraq.

You think it would have been a brighter idea to keep giving them guns?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Er, no, the Russians blocked it. Millipede couldn't block a wet paper bag. As I recall John Kerry was asked at a press conference what it would take for the US not to bomb Syria and he said they would have to hand over all their chemical weapons within one week and added, "Of course they are not going to do that!" At which point the Russians said they would broker a hand-over deal and the Syrians said they could easily hand over their entire stockpile in a week. So the whole bomb Syria idea died a death. Behind the scenes the Russians were also threatening to invade Saudi if the US invaded Syria.

That was months ago. I believe Syria still has most of its chemical weapons.

I'm no fan of Millipede but he stood up to the Americans and voted the way the people of Britain wanted, If MPs had voted the way the Americans wanted we'd have been in another unwinnable war in a matter of days.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Iraq at risk of civil war as al-Qaeda-led uprising pushes to within striking distance of Baghdad

It's only a few short weeks since the BBC radio had someone on saying that there was no such organisation as al-Qaeda. It was just easy speech to put random groups into a particular category.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

+1 A collapse in Pakistan could occur so rapidly we could see fissile materials in the wrong hands before anyone could respond.

So its a choice between No Black Swan and ludicrous house prices, or nuclear attack?

S*d it, lets go with the nukes...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Miliband blocked bombing the Syrian gov who are fighting these Al Qaeda ISIS fighters. That action would have taken out the Syrian gov and supported the rebel extremists. This advance in Iraq would have happened even quicker if Miliband had given Labours approval to attack. Remember the US and other nations (the French particularly) were hours away from it. I was shocked a UK party leader blocked a military attack supported by the US.

Yes, we would rather support Russian interest and keep a nice family based dictatorship to rule Syria with an iron fist for ever ... based on your thoughts Oliver Cromwell was a terrorist too ..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Oil price jumps to 111USD

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/10894480/Iraq-crisis-oil-spikes-to-three-year-high-of-111-a-barrel.html

Lets see it go higher, irony that Muslims terror groups who i am told are my enemy could lead to me being able to buy a reasonably priced house.

Just shows the LIBLABCON are the true enemy of the British people.

Edited by Corruption

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Iraq crisis: oil spikes to three-year high of $111 a barrel

From the chart in the article the "spike" seems to be no more significant than similar volatility that's nearly always in the oil price.

It's interesting that the telegraph has oil spike and Iraq headlines at a time when there's been a lot of news that the energy suppliers are under investigation for ripping off and exploiting customers. It must just be a coincidence.

Edited by billybong

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is an ethnic uprising by the Sunnis against the Shia majority government who have trampled over the Sunnis since the first elections in 2005.

I wish Damik would post on this thread, seeing as he had nothing but praise fro western intervention in Iraq.

If oil production is cut significantly and drives up oil prices, that will certainly be a black swan.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

They need to install a strong natural leader to control all the tribes in Iraq. Someone like Saddam Hussein :wacko:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   224 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.